Social Europe: German court decision ends treaty pretences

In one relatively brief decision, the court struck a double blow. It asserted the power of itself, a national institution, to overrule the European Court of Justice on an EU-level issue, and it denied the political independence of the European Central Bank. [...]

The first was the conviction that there existed a coalition with the centre-right European Peoples’ Party for greater EU integration within a progressive framework. That conviction was closely related to a second—that concessions by the centre-left on fiscal rules would gain proportionate concessions from the centre-right on social protection. [....]

While the German constitutional court operates independently of the federal government, the recent decision by the former sets limits to the decisions the latter can make. These bind all the more because the decision affirms the longstanding opposition of the Bundesbank to ECB monetary-expansion programmes—the appropriateness of which the ruling explicitly mandates the Bundesbank to assess. [...]

Methods to confront this dilemma fall into three categories, increasingly radical in nature: 1) devise schemes to bypass treaty rules, 2) take measures which openly challenge the treaties or 3) break with the EU. I exclude the last, since it would create for any such government unmanageable short-term problems exactly when a solution is needed.

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TLDR News: Is Hungary a Dictatorship Now? Orban's Controversial Coronavirus Law Explained

The Conversation: Ursula Von der Leyen: why controversial choice for EU top job may actually have been the right one

MEPs themselves are to blame for the demise of the Spitzenkandidaten system. Had they managed to unite behind a candidate, it would have been difficult for the council to override their decision, despite having legal authority to do so. But none of the lead candidates – Frans Timmermans, Margrethe Vestager and Manfred Weber – was able to command a majority. [...]

Eastern European countries opposed Timmermans because he had led inquiries into rule of law violations in Hungary and Poland. But Timmermans also failed to win the EPP’s support. As the largest parliamentary party group, the EPP fought to select one of their own, even if it meant sacrificing the Spitzenkandidaten system in the process. Vestager had announced her candidacy late and was unpopular in Italy as well as the Visegrad countries (albeit not as unpopular as Timmermans).

Technically, those who refused to back Weber and Timmermans could have been overruled by other member states in the council, because none had a blocking minority (representing more than 35% of the EU population). In fact, a key reason why the Lisbon Treaty increased the use of qualified majority voting was to facilitate the EU’s ability to take decisions without the burdensome requirement of unanimity. However, council members chose not to take that route. Instead, the council members stuck with the informal norm of unanimous decision making because they worried that overriding the objectors might provoke them to resort to obstructive political tactics. [...]

Had von der Leyen failed to garner sufficient votes, it would have plunged the EU into crisis as there is no obvious alternative candidate who could have commanded a majority in the European Parliament. In Berlin, the grand coalition of Christian Democratic Union (CDU/ CSU) and Social Democrats (SPD) might have fallen apart. The SPD would have had a hard time explaining to German voters why it torpedoed the first German Commission president in over 50 years, thereby blocking the first woman to lead the Commission (a woman who, unlike her main male rival, has held senior executive public office for 15 years).

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New Statesman: Why the EU’s new top team is a setback for pro-Europeans

But let's say it goes ahead: what does it mean, and which European leaders have done well out of it? The agreement is a whomping defeat for the Spitzenkandidaten system, where the pan-European parties (the centre-right European People's Party, the centre-left Party of European Socialists, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats, soon to be renamed Renew Europe) nominate candidates for the top posts and whoever wins the elections across the bloc gets to have their chosen candidate installed in the top post. In the end, none of the candidates selected by the pan-European parties got the big jobs, with horse-trading among individual member states once again the crucial factor.

Assuming it goes ahead, who are the big winners? Most obviously, it’s a victory for Belgium’s Charles Michel, who has carved out a lifeboat for himself away from the jockeying for power in his country, which could yet see his Reform Movement tossed out of power. It’s a coup for Angela Merkel, who has managed to back a nice little sinecure for von der Leyen, a Merkel loyalist once widely tipped as her chosen successor, whose handling of the defence brief saw her miss out on the top job. And it tilts the balance of European power a little to the left.

It's a qualified victory for Emmanuel Macron. He has frustrated, and quite probably destroyed the Spitzenkandidaten (or “lead candidate”) system, which he dislikes, in exchange for a return to the previous era of European power politics. He has successfully found a top job for his Renew Europe group in Michel's job as Commission President. He prevented Manfred Webber, the EPP's candidate, from taking the EU's top post. And he has bagged a big job for a French national in Lagarde, though the IMF chief has no experience in monetary policy at a fraught time for the global economy. Against that, he failed to secure his first choice as Commission President in the Socialist Frans Timmermans.

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Politico: Conservatives rebel against Merkel’s EU top jobs plan

Among the national leaders to speak out against the proposal were Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, and Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar. That opposition, along with Poland, Romania and other countries that had already voiced resistance to Timmermans, was enough to make the Osaka plan a political nonstarter. [...]

“As EPP, we haven’t agreed to the package that was negotiated in Osaka. I think it’s fair to say there’s a lot opposition to the proposal that was made in Osaka from the EPP’s point of view," Varadkar said, arriving at the Council's Europa building. "The vast majority of the EPP prime ministers don’t believe that we should give up the presidency of the Commission quite so easily, without a fight.” [...]

Rangel noted that the EPP had officially tapped two other prime ministers, Plenković and Latvian Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš, as its official negotiators in the leadership deliberations. “Mr. Plenković and Mr. Karins,” Rangel said. “They speak on behalf of the EPP.”

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EURACTIV: Orban lost in the European wilderness

Moreover, Orbán’s illiberal rhetoric and cultural war elevated to the European level contributed to the rise of liberals at home as well as in Europe. In Hungary, the party of the former Socialist prime minister, Ferenc Gyurcsány, led by the energetic Klara Dobrev (Gyurcsány’s wife) came second with 16% of the votes. The young, Western educated liberals Momentum secured third place with 10%, giving a sign of hope for the opposition.

In the EU, the new political division lines are climate change and illiberalism – and less so on migration or particularly economic governance that European voters are actually unhappy about. Representing two different angles of behaviour but the same neoliberal economics, Orbán needs French President Macron to maintain his position as much as Macron needs him. [...]

However, Hungary was in a different situation when he took over in 2010. The economy was in tatters, the country needed an almost $26 billion bailout in 2008 after years of high deficit, unsustainable debt levels, very low social spending, and mismanagement by the socialist-liberal government coalitions. For the majority of Hungarians Orbán is managing the economy better, what is the main reason behind Fidesz`s continuous popularity. Meanwhile, the opposition is oversaturated with previously discredited political figures.

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TLDR News: What EU Elections Tell Us About How Europe Feels - Brexit Explained

Last week people across the EU went to the polls to vote for their new representatives in the European Election. This is an important vote and gives us a reading on the feelings of people across, and how they feel about politics and the EU. In this video, we analyse the results, explain the groupings who won and lost and discuss what the results mean for the EU going forward.

Politico: Little debate (literally) over best Spitzenkandidat

But with just seven weeks to go until the European Parliament election, the two main contenders — Manfred Weber of the European People's Party (EPP) and Frans Timmermans of the Party of European Socialists (PES) — are scheduled to go head-to-head in just one EU-wide debate.

By contrast, current Commission President Jean-Claude Junker of the EPP and his main rival, former Parliament President Martin Schulz of the PES, faced off in nine debates in 2014, including four times for an EU-wide audience. [...]

The main liberal party, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), has refused to put forward a single nominee, viewing the Spitzenkandidat process as unfairly benefitting Weber and the conservatives. Instead, ALDE has put forward a slate of candidates and said that different members of that list would represent the party in debates, notably European Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager, a Dane, and former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt, ALDE's group leader in Parliament.

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Politico: Orbán defiant as conservative critique grows

EPP leaders were outraged this week when the Hungarian government unveiled a taxpayer-financed campaign attacking Juncker, along with the Hungarian-American billionaire George Soros, and accusing Brussels of plotting to impose migration policies that go against Hungary's interests.

So far, party chieftains, including the EPP president, Joseph Daul, have protected Orbán, mindful that the 12 seats Fidesz holds in the European Parliament are important for the EPP's majority and its future election prospects. According to EPP rules, the suspension or exclusion of a member party can be triggered by “seven ordinary or associated member parties from five different countries.”

Earlier Friday, Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said he found the wording of Orbán’s campaign “unacceptable,” according to local media reports.

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Politico: Europe in pieces: Where voters disagree

The European Parliament election in May is expected to produce a major turnover in political power in the EU’s institutions, with populist parties making new gains and voters across the bloc split on what issues to prioritize in the ballot. [...]

The EPP, the EU’s biggest political group, is leading the polls in only two of the bloc’s 10 most populous countries. An EPP-affiliated party leads a national government in only one of its 13 most populous countries. Here are its projected results in the EU-wide election: [...]

If the votes of people who abstained in the 2014 European Parliament election counted toward a new party, that party would be the biggest political force in 24 out of 27 EU countries. The graphic below shows the percentage of people who abstained from voting in the last European election.

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Politico: Michel Barnier back pushing his vision for EU’s future

The former French minister, European commissioner, and national and European parliamentarian, who has been center stage throughout the 18 months of Brexit negotiations with London, published an opinion piece outlining his priorities for the bloc in 2019.

The English-language article comes days after Barnier discussed his vision for Europe in a piece for Le Monde.

While German conservative Manfred Weber is the candidate for European Commission president of Barnier's European People's Party, the French politician's persistent speechmaking and tweeting on European topics have done nothing to quash rumors that he is interested in another EU top job after Brexit negotiations conclude. [...]

Barnier took a centrist path on migration: "Our response cannot be based on fears and myths, but nor can we ignore national debates and identities," he wrote. "In addition to consolidating the EU’s Frontex border-management system and creating common hotspots at our external borders and beyond, we must also harmonize national-level migration and asylum policies as much as possible," he added.

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Politico: Winners and losers from conservatives’ Helsinki lovefest

But the big prize comes with big risks. Weber becomes the man-to-beat for all the other EU political families, but he is also in danger of becoming ensnared in an institutional fight between the European Council and the Parliament over the “lead candidate” process itself. The Council has already said it cannot be legally bound to nominate a Spitzenkandidat as Commission president, as the Parliament has demanded. Weber’s lack of prior experience as a former head of state or government makes him particularly vulnerable to the Council going in its own direction. Resistance to the “lead candidate” process from the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe also raises the possibility that Weber’s time to enjoy his grand prize could be limited. [...]

Best Actor — Alexander Stubb: The former Finnish prime minister is an Ironman triathlete — and who better than a marathon runner to understand winning is not as important as getting to the finish line with your head high? Especially if you score a personal best. Stubb is virtually guaranteed a prominent role in the EU leadership going forward, perhaps as a digital czar, given his interest in the risks and opportunities of technological disruption. He will no longer be a target of opposition parties, and he faces none of Weber’s risks. If the Spitzenkandidat process unravels, Stubb could even emerge as a compromise candidate — someone who participated fully in the campaign, but may be more appealing to liberals and socialists than the conservative Weber, who is already being criticized as a longtime ally of Hungary’s self-proclaimed “illiberal” prime minister, Viktor Orbán. Stubb knew the EPP establishment was arrayed against him, but never resorted to criticism or complaint. In the EU, knowing how to lose is a winning trait.

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Bloomberg: Populism Hits Home for EU Party Papering Over Its Orban Problem

“This resolution is definitely aimed at Orban and is a balancing act in trying to explain why the EPP accommodates an illiberal party within its ranks while confronting populists elsewhere,” said Julian Rappold, an analyst at the European Policy Centre in Brussels. “But this debate won’t go away as long as Fidesz belongs to the EPP.” [...]

The EPP members will choose between two contenders: Manfred Weber, who backed triggering a sanctions mechanism against Hungary but who nonetheless said he supports dialog over punishment for Orban; and Alexander Stubb, a former Finnish prime minister who has said he would expel Fidesz from the EPP if it violated the group’s values. Orban backs Weber, the EPP’s current chairman, in Thursday’s vote. [...]

At the same time, Orban has ruled out trading his seat in the most influential group in the EU Parliament for one in the populist camp before the elections, which might help explain why the party may ultimately sign the anti-populist resolution. Fidesz would sign the text in its present form, according to a party official who asked not to be identified because no final decision has been taken.

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Politico: Sebastian Kurz: Keep Viktor Orbán in conservative fold

“I don’t believe it would make sense to create another new party of Eastern Europeans, who are unevenly matched when it comes to morals,” Kurz told Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung newspaper in an interview published Sunday.

Earlier this week, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán “no longer has a place” in the European People’s Party. The grouping — the largest in the European Parliament — counts Juncker’s Christian Social People’s Party and Kurz’s Austrian People’s Party, as well as German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats among its ranks.[...]

Last month, the European Parliament declared that Hungary is at risk of breaching the EU’s core values, citing concerns about judicial independence, corruption, freedom of expression, academic freedom, the rights of minorities and migrants, and other issues in the country.

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Politico: How Barnier could be EU’s Trojan horse

EU national leaders, however, have already warned that legally they could not, and would not, be bound by the process, because it strips away their discretion. And some political groups, especially the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, have lost enthusiasm for the Sptizenkandidat system, viewing it as overwhelmingly favoring the EPP, the center-right party which is widely expected to once again win the most seats in Parliament next year.

However, Barnier’s decision not to seek the EPP nomination means that the Council could potentially draft him as a capable, and popular, candidate — presuming, of course, that he leads the Brexit talks to a successful outcome — even though he did not run as a Spitzenkandidat. [...]

In the short term, Barnier’s decision stands to boost the chances of former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb, who is widely expected to join the contest for the EPP nomination. So far, the only declared candidate is Manfred Weber, the German leader of the EPP group in Parliament, who has the backing of Angela Merkel but no prior executive experience. [...]

Barnier’s predicament also highlights what critics of the Spitzenkandidat process cite as one of the system’s biggest flaws: anyone who already has an important job, particularly sitting heads of state or government, is unlikely to give that up to campaign for the chance of winning the Commission presidency.

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Politico: Last rites for Spitzenkandidat

Since then, the power-sharing agreement has collapsed, and the heads of government on the European Council have said they will not be bound by the Spitzenkandidat process. Meanwhile, parties other than the EPP have turned against the system, recognizing that it overwhelmingly benefits the conservatives, who are once again virtually guaranteed to win the most seats in Parliament in next year’s election. [...]

Some of the strongest resistance is coming from the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), which has only the fourth-largest faction in Parliament but has made strong gains in national elections and is soon expected to hold eight seats on the European Council — the same number as the EPP. [...]

For now, Merkel has backed Weber’s candidacy, but her endorsement is largely a necessity of national allegiance, and in announcing her support she made clear that merely winning the party’s nomination would not guarantee that Weber becomes Commission president — an implicit renunciation of the Spitzenkandidat system. [...]

But unlike national parliaments, the European Parliament is co-legislator along with the European Council, and members of the Council have made clear that they are not willing to relinquish their legal authority over nominating the Commission president in favor of an unwritten process that gives Parliament overwhelming control.

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Politico: Merkel changes target in quest for German EU dominance

“It’s certainly plausible that Germany has an interest because it has not held the Commission president post since Walter Hallstein in 1967,” said Elmar Brok, a veteran center-right MEP who also sits on the executive committee of Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU). [...]

Merkel’s preference would be to nominate her economy minister, Peter Altmaier, for the post. A longtime Merkel confidante who served as her chief of staff until last year, Altmaier, 60, worked for the Commission early in his career and speaks several European languages. [...]

Merkel’s rethink was spurred by the likely resistance her preferred ECB candidate, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, would face elsewhere in the eurozone. A monetary hawk deeply skeptical of some of the moves current ECB President Mario Draghi has taken to combat the euro crisis, Weidmann has earned a reputation as a hard-liner. [...]

Another question is whether Merkel would succeed in convincing the rest of the European People’s Party to support her candidate. Doing so could mean shoving aside Manfred Weber, the German leader of the EPP’s parliamentary group.

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Politico: Macron and Salvini face off over Continent’s future

Macron has charged Christophe Castaner, En Marche’s chief executive, with pulling together potential allies across the Continent, including Italy’s former center-left Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and the liberal Spanish Ciudadanos party. [...]

It’s a battleground on which Salvini is eager to engage. “Next year’s election will be a referendum between the Europe of the elites, banks, finance, mass migration and precariousness versus the Europe of peoples, work, tranquility, family and future,” he said earlier this month at a rally of party members and supporters in the northern Italian town of Pontida. [...]

En Marche officials have been courting members of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe parliamentary group (ALDE) with the hope of forming a large pro-European force after the election. But so far “Macronmania” has not infected the European Parliament; few believe Macron’s group will be able to rival the EPP for dominance.

Salvini’s problem is that Euroskeptics are heterogeneous and divided, and in some areas ideological enemies. On economics, for example, the National Rally and Alternative for Germany (AfD) sit at opposite ends of the political spectrum. Creating a large Euroskeptic group would require him to bridge those differences. [...]

A new Macron-centered political group would draw on the most progressive of the liberal ALDE parliamentary group, “and all those who don’t identify themselves with the EPP or Socialist forces,” said Pieyre-Alexandre Anglade, a French member of parliament from En Marche and one of Macron’s point men in preparing the 2019 election campaign. “What we offer is an alternative to populists,” he said.

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The Guardian: Blame for the ‘migrant crisis’ lies with national politicians, not the EU

To be sure, the EU failed to anticipate the scope of the 2015 migration crisis. But today’s dismal turn of events has more to do with how national politicians have behaved than with the European project itself. Politicians should explain the complexities of migration rather than pander to anxieties and alarm citizens. Throughout history, Europe’s very fabric was born of age-old movements of entire populations. With so many desperate people on the move today, seeking safety or simply a better life for themselves, migration cannot simply be stopped. Instead it must be managed.

But there’s an obvious discrepancy between what the EU commission is proposing and what national governments are ready to do. For instance, Brussels institutions have published a plan for Africa, calling for spending of €32bn (£28bn) over six years and focusing particularly on infrastructure. Will the leaders of EU states accept it, even though it’s a bare minimum? Or will they try to take the easier route of building walls and barriers in order to allay the very fears some of them have fanned?  

Look at the facts: the number of migrants arriving in Europe by sea has dropped spectacularly – in Italy, by over 70% compared to last year. But that reality has gone almost unnoticed. There is no large-scale migration crisis in Europe now. Instead, what we’re seeing are domestic political crises in which the theme of migration is exploited by demagogues. [...]

The dominance of the nation state also goes some way to explaining why the needs of citizens – in terms of jobs and social policies – are paid insufficient attention. Take the Maastricht treaty. It has been essentially used in the name of economic and fiscal rigour – a topic dear to the heart of the conservative European People’s party, which has long acted as the de facto ruler in Brussels. That is largely what has turned the eurozone into a bogeyman for people who care about social justice. But here’s the thing: only the budget deficit and GDP parameters of the Maastricht treaty were enacted. The parts that pointed to social policies have been left to languish. Who is aware today that the Lisbon treaty, in article 3, talks of goals relating to social progress and economic growth, and that it even mentions full employment?

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Politico: Slovenian survivor targets victory à la Orbán

Janša, 59, is campaigning not just as an ally of Orbán but also as a political survivor. Almost 30 years ago to the day, Janša and three others were arrested for spreading military secrets, when Slovenia was part of communist Yugoslavia. The arrests catalyzed the so-called Slovene Spring protest movement, a key episode in the disintegration of Yugoslavia. [...]

Leading in opinion polls, Janša has run a campaign based on his anti-communist past and promising a future free of migrants, with a dose of rhetoric suggesting powerful nefarious forces are ranged against him — much as Orbán often does. Like Orbán’s Fidesz, the SDS is part of the European People’s Party center-right grouping in the European Parliament. [...]

Orbán came to stump with Janša in mid-May at a rally in the eastern town of Celje, declaring, “If Europe surrenders to mass population movement and immigration, our own Continent will be lost … The aim is to settle among us people who do not belong to our culture, and who will want to live here according to their own religions and customs.”

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