23 June 2016

FiveThirtyEight: Gender Matters In This Election, But Other Factors Probably Matter More

More than 90 percent of Americans would be willing to vote for a well-qualified woman for president, according to a Gallup poll that posed the question last year, yet 22 percent of respondents said that they thought “most of the people they know” would not “vote for a presidential candidate who is a woman” when asked in a YouGov poll the same year. Why the large gap between what people say they would do and what they think other people would do?

One explanation is that when asked directly about their opinions, people might try to offer a more socially acceptable answer. When asked about others’ opinions, people may indirectly reveal their own true feelings. Research has consistently found that respondents lie on surveys about their attitudes on sensitive topics, such as racial or gender attitudes, out of fear of being seen as racist or sexist. This propensity to conceal one’s true attitudes in the face of social pressure is known to researchers as “social desirability bias.” [...]

For this election, the research suggests that there may be a ceiling on support for Clinton based on her gender, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that polls are overestimating her support. If anything, the opposite may be true. Even though gender will play some role throughout the election in both candidates’ talking points, there are other factors that will probably play a far more influential role in this election than the gender of the first female nominee of a major party.

Hindustan Times: Away from limelight, a Muslim spreads yoga in Pakistan

In a country where Islamic rightwingers very often call the shots, Haider, 47, has quietly succeeded in attracting tens of thousands to yoga, achieving a feat that once seemed near impossible. On June 21, when the world celebrated the second International Day of Yoga, Haider did yogic asanas along with his 20,000 yoga students across Pakistan -- but minus media publicity. [...]

“Yoga belongs to humanity in the form of a pure science and is not the sole entity of India,” he said, speaking in Urdu. “While Indian Hindus and Muslims fight over its origin and practice, our clubs have people from all sects of Muslims, Christians and Hindus who have made it a part of their life to reap its health benefits,” Haider said.

Among the over 50 yoga clubs in Pakistan, Haider oversees the major ones in Islamabad, Lahore and Rawalpindi. Even some Islamic clerics come to the centres to learn and practise yoga and meditation. “I have top clerics of (Islamabad) as my students. They are happy about it and they encourage others to join.”

AP: In a first, Mideast hub Dubai eases liquor rules for Ramadan

The city-state is breaking new ground with its decision to loosen rules prohibiting day-time alcohol sales during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, a move that reflects how much Dubai's rulers value the revenue both tourists and alcohol tax bring into this emirate. [...]

Asked by the AP about the rule change, Dubai's Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing said that "ensuring a superlative visitor experience consistently is at the center of our destination proposition and remains in line with Dubai's significance as a world-class tourism destination." [...]

"Strong population growth driven by political unrest in neighboring Arab countries and economic hardships in Europe ... is likely to drive the sales of alcoholic drinks over the forecast," Euromonitor said in an October 2015 report. "Strong investments in the real estate and hospitality industries in preparation for Expo 2020 will also push tourism higher, which will have a positive effect on alcoholic drinks."

Despite Dubai's flushed embrace of alcohol, the city-state's laws are incredibly strict. In theory, anyone transporting or consuming liquor, beer or wine at home must carry a government-issued liquor license, obtainable only after gaining their employer's permission. Anyone driving with any trace of alcohol in their system is subject to immediate arrest and charges.

The New Yorker‎: Forget Congress—The Gun Business Faces a Judge

But, on Monday, as the Senate vanished into the bog of gun politics, the most serious legal challenge to American gun violence was unfolding not in Washington but in a state court in Bridgeport, Connecticut. Parents of Sandy Hook victims, and one survivor, have brought a novel lawsuit against Remington Arms, which manufactured the AR-15-style Bushmaster rifle used in the attack, that could pry open the inner workings of the gun company, much as lawsuits against tobacco companies exposed their knowledge of the risks of cancer and their efforts to market to children. Unlike the plaintiffs in previous lawsuits against gun companies, the parents are not seeking to prove that the gun had an unsafe design or was distributed in ways that lead to illegal black-market sales; they accuse Remington of “unfair trade practices” for placing advertisements that marketed it to civilians as “the ultimate combat weapons system.” In effect, they are accusing Remington of lying to customers. [...]

One of the biggest things at stake is discovery: If the case goes forward, will plaintiffs, and the press, be allowed to see internal documents about how Remington marketed its weapons using the Internet and video games? Bellis has ordered discovery to begin, but Remington lawyers have said that they will seek to bar files from public view. Bellis has until mid-October to decide what will happen to the case.

Deutsche Welle: Why are some people attracted to Jihad?

It differs from country to country. It depends on the minority groups and the country's migration history. For example, if you see Austria's foreign fighters, these are people who came from Chechnya or from the former Yugoslav republic. When you look at Belgium and France, we see Moroccans and Algerians. In Holland, it's mostly Moroccan and when you look at the British situation, you would find a lot of Pakistanis and Afghans. [...]

Sometimes it also has to do with very practical things. We have had examples of people who stayed there for three months in a row and came back because otherwise their tourist visa to Turkey would become invalid. Sometimes people are hurt and need some major medical treatment. And we've also had people who came back because of disillusionment, because they didn't feel at home there. A lack of Western standards of comfort is also a factor for a lot of people. [...]

Some people go back to their normal lives. Some of them come back with post-traumatic disorders and live a marginalized life afterwards. And finally, we have people who come back and use the skills they learned in Syria for criminal purposes. For example, people who were good with weapons have a high tendency towards violence when they return.

Forbes: Selling The Crown Jewels; The New Game In Russia, Brazil and Saudi Arabia

One proposed sale of crown jewels is interesting. Two is highly unusual. Three is definitely a trend and a pointer to the problems which are crushing the economies of countries which have become too dependent on commodities.

At times of high prices the problem of dependency is not obvious though in all three cases there were warning bells ringing a decade ago. [...]

But, one thing is certain, after years of mismanagement and the use of profits from commodity sales to prop up incompetent government and maintain social welfare spending to suppress unrest, the sales plans prove that the pips are really squeaking in Russia, Brazil and Saudi Arabia.

The Washington Post: 13 Brexit facts that will make Americans feel less embarrassed about their own election

Yes, the British love to chortle at the peculiarities of the U.S. general election. But now Americans have a good reason to fight back. It's called "Brexit." Britain's referendum on leaving the European Union, due to take place this Thursday, touches upon important and real policy debates. Yet even those who strongly supported the calls for a referendum may cringe when they think of what exactly has happened over the past few months. [...]

The backlash against "experts" may be understandable after the 2008 financial crash, but it's still alarming. “What we’re seeing is a rise in the number of people who are dissatisfied, disapproving, distrusting of political institutions, political parties, the establishment, the media and, wrapped up with that, the experts,” Joe Twyman, head of political and social research at the polling firm YouGov, told The Washington Post. “A certain proportion of people don’t believe a word of what they hear from those they consider part of the metropolitan elite.” [...]

In the fierce campaign ahead of the vote, Britons have been bombarded with facts and statistics from both sides.

But both sides have been accused of misleading or sometimes even outright lying to the public. For example, the pro-Brexit camp has repeatedly said that Britain is forced to send $514 million a week to Brussels, even emblazoning it on the side of buses. However, as Sky News's Faisal Islam explained, this wasn't true. "It is demonstrably untrue," Islam wrote. "Or to put it another way, it is a lie."

The "remain" campaign has also been called out for misleading the public, although it appears to have happened less frequently. The Telegraph recently called claims that two-thirds of British jobs in manufacturing are dependent on demand from Europe "wrong," reporting that they are based on flawed estimates that have since been revised.

Reuters: Portugal's political stability is Europe's rare pleasant surprise

According to Santos, who serves as the government's main political negotiator, there have been about 350 meetings with the leftists since the administration took power in November. That translates into about three meetings every working day, many of them attended by government ministers. [...]

Given the rivalries, the alliance was widely predicted to stumble at the first hurdle - the 2016 budget. But so far it has managed to stick to strict budget goals agreed with Brussels, while delivering on some promises of rolling back austerity by reducing cuts to civil servant salaries and pensions.

There are still fundamental disagreements. The Left Bloc and Communists remain staunchly anti-austerity and insist that creditors must write off Portugal's debt. The Socialists insisted in their initial pact that commitments to Europe must be maintained.

Still, six months in, even opponents accept that the system is not necessarily headed for collapse.

The Guardian: The 10 best Euro myths – from custard creams to condoms

Inventing Euro myths has been something of a sport for the British press for nearly 30 years. The EU’s Euromyths website, which offers officials in Brussels a chance to rebut media accusations of meddling, features about 650 reports.

Many of these contain a kernel of truth, perhaps a line in a draft proposal or a footnote in a directive that has been taken out of context and blown out of proportion. Some are completely fabricated. Most support the narrative that Brussels is nothing but a bunch of meddling, red-tape-loving, humourless pedants who are out to ban, or at least rename, our fun. Here are 10 of the best Euro myths.

The Times of Israel: A glimpse into Azerbaijan’s hidden all-Jewish town

Rabbi Yaakobi arrived in Krasnaya Sloboda (meaning “red town” in Russian) from the central Israeli city of Kfar Saba as a Chabad emissary almost 10 years ago. Since then, he has been working ceaselessly to bring the community back into the fold of Orthodox Judaism after centuries of near isolation from other Jewish communities — as well as decades of Soviet anti-religious policies.

The town itself was founded as a haven for Jews in 1742 by Fatah Ali Khan, the Muslim emir of the town of Quba, located in a relatively flat area just south of the the modern day border with the Russian province of Dagestan. While the rugged and remote area to the north had served as a haven for Jews for centuries, a period of unrest beginning in the 18th century saw local Sunnis turn on their Jewish counterparts and send them fleeing. [...]

“The story of the Soviets being responsible for the decline of Jewish learning in the town is the classic ‘those were the days’ ‘golden age’ kind of story,” Murinson says. “As early as the 19th century the level of Torah knowledge was very low and this is a fact. This was attested to by rabbis from the land of Israel and Eastern Europe who visited at the time.” [...]

When it comes to emigration however, despite the upswing in religiosity among the younger generation, they harbor little interest in moving to the Jewish state, seeing Russia as the preferred choice. The general view of Israel in Krasnaya Sloboda is that it is a place where they will likely be ruined, both culturally and financially, and their traditional culture undermined.

The Guardian: Israeli minister seeks cabinet backing for Gaza artificial island plan

A senior Israeli minister is seeking to win cabinet backing for an ambitious $5bn (£3.4bn) plan to ease the economic blockade of Gaza with an artificial island linked to the territory by a secure three-mile bridge.

Transport and intelligence minister Yisrael Katz’s argument for the island, which would include a seaport and possibly even an airport, is that it would restore Gaza’s links with the outside world without jeopardising Israeli security. [...]

Husam Zomlot, an official in Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah faction, has said Katz’s “dubious” proposal could spell “the final severing of Gaza” from the West Bank.