25 January 2018

Social Europe: Instability, Not Productivity, Is The Economic Problem

For some 30 years after the second world war the global economy grew with only minor interruptions but with creeping inflation. In some countries, the creep tended to accelerate and when the oil shock of 1974/5 worsened the terms of trade inflation exploded in most developed countries. That period was characterised by either a stable share of wages and profits in GDP or, in some countries, a rising wage share.  [...]

As a consequence, from the mid-1980s economic power swung decisively from labour to capital. Inflation died in all developed countries and in most the share of profits within GDP began to rise. Cyclically adjusted, the rise was to last for over 30 years. Within the labour market in Western countries jobs at the top of the hierarchy became better paid, those at the bottom worse paid while those in the middle dwindled in relative number.  [...]

In a world of deficient demand and shortage of “jobs”, all countries want to run an export surplus. Easy money everywhere eliminates the possibility of competitive devaluation – everyone is trying it so no-one can do it. The country that expands its fiscal deficit quickly ends up with a current account deficit. Calls on surplus countries to take their share of the burden of raising demand fall on deaf ears. Indeed, Germany, for example, is congenitally deaf on this issue. Trade imbalances grow, so does international indebtedness and eventually creditors become alarmed. No one wants to be another Greece so stabilisation via fiscal deficit is unfashionable as long as international co-ordination of fiscal policies is impossible.

FiveThirtyEight: Are White Evangelicals Sacrificing The Future In Search Of The Past?

The driver behind much of this change is “generational turnover.” And so a chasm has emerged between the views of these young people and white evangelical Protestants. A PRRI survey found that 83 percent of the latter believe that sex is morally acceptable only between a man and a woman who are married, but this view is held among only 30 percent of all young adults. For many young people, white evangelical Protestants in the 21st century appear to be advocating a mid-20th century approach to sex, relationships and marriage, even as American society resembles life during this period less and less. [...]

After dominating much of American politics for the past 40 years, white evangelical Protestants are now facing a sharp decline. Nearly one-third of white Americans raised in evangelical Christian households leave their childhood faith.2 About 60 percent of those who leave end up joining another faith tradition, while 40 percent give up on religion altogether. The rates of disaffiliation are even higher among young adults: 39 percent of those raised evangelical Christian no longer identify as such in adulthood. And while there is always a good deal of churn in the religious marketplace — people both entering and leaving faith traditions — recent findings suggest that membership losses among white evangelical Protestants are not being offset by gains.

As a result, the white evangelical Protestant population in the U.S. has fallen over the past decade, dropping from 23 percent in 2006 to 17 percent in 2016. But equally troubling for those concerned about the vitality of evangelical Christianity, white evangelical Protestants are aging. Today, 62 percent of white evangelical Protestants are at least 50 years old. In 1987, fewer than half (46 percent) were. The median age of white evangelical Protestants today is 55. [...]

Other research also suggests that one of the prime motivators for leaving a religion is belief incompatibility. A 2016 PRRI study found that the most common reason people give up on their childhood faith is that they no longer believe in its teachings. Twenty-nine percent of Americans who have left their formative religion explicitly mention negative teachings about gay and lesbian people as a proximate cause for their disaffiliation.

The School of Life: In Praise Of Bias

“A presumption among many thoughtful people is that the great enemy of a good life and a decent world is something called ‘bias’. By bias, people have come to understand a twisting of the facts towards dark and entirely nefarious ends. According to this interpretation, bias is invariably and necessarily bad. In some quarters, the word has simply grown synonymous with evil…”



SciShow Psych: Juvenoia: The Psychology Behind Millennial Bashing




National Geographic: Iceland Is Growing New Forests for the First Time in 1,000 Years | Short Film Showcase

The landscape of Iceland has changed a lot in a thousand years. When the Vikings first arrived in the ninth century, the land was covered in 25 to 40 percent forest. 

Within a few centuries, almost all of the island’s trees were slashed and burned to make room for farming. This rapid deforestation has resulted in massive soil erosion that puts the island at risk for desertification. 

Today, the Icelandic Forest Service has taken on the mammoth task of bringing back the woodlands. With the help of forestry societies and forest farmers, Iceland’s trees are slowly beginning to make a comeback. Watch this short film by Euforgen to learn more about how their efforts are working to benefit Iceland's economy and ecology through forestry. 



Vox: The 32-year-old prince who’s shaking up Saudi Arabia

 Mohammad bin Salman was designated as Saudi Arabia's new crown prince in June 2017. Since then, he has rapidly consolidated power and led Saudi Arabia towards some progressive reforms, such as granting women the right to drive. He also has plans to privatize certain segments of the economy, with the goal of reducing Saudi Arabia's economic dependency on oil. These changes, along with a suppression of Saudi Arabia's religious Right, could potentially begin to destabilize one of the Middle East's most powerful nations.



Quartz: The fastest shrinking countries on earth are in Eastern Europe

The top 10 countries with the fastest shrinking populations are all in Eastern Europe (with a few in Central and Northern Europe), according to UN projections. Bulgaria, Latvia, Moldova, Ukraine, Croatia, Lithuania, Romania, Serbia, Poland, Hungary, are estimated to see their population shrink by 15% or more by 2050.

In Bulgaria, the world’s fastest shrinking country, the population is expected to drop from 7 million in 2017 to 5.4 million in 2050. In Latvia, the population is estimated to drop from 1.9 million in 2017 to 1.5 million, whilst in Moldova, the population is estimated to shrink from 4 million to 3.2 million. [...]

At least 11 countries have shrunk by more than 10% in terms of their population size since 1989, Sobotka says, including, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine. Latvia lost over a quarter of its population (27%), Lithuania 23%, Bulgaria and Bosnia and Herzegovina 21%. For instance, Bulgarian population contracted from 9 million in 1989 to 7.1 million in 2017. “That’s a massive population loss, unprecedented in peace times,” he explains.

Sobotka puts this population loss down to three factors—falling fertility rates, massive out-migration and relatively high mortality. “So whereas Western and southern European countries have attracted a lot of immigration which largely offset the effects of low fertility, the East is in a double bind, experiencing both out-migration and low birth rates,” he says.

Quartz: China’s new Davos pledge—blue skies, literally, in three years

Air pollution in China is so bad that it darkens skies in the daytime, gives citizens cancer, and hinders its ability to produce solar power, thanks to the country’s coal consumption. China’s Communist Party promised to fight pollution in its latest five-year plan and even bring back blue skies, but Liu is the first to put a timeframe on the pledge. [...]

“Green and low-carbon development is what the Chinese people and people across the world want the most,” Liu said. In the next three years, he said China will “scale up pollution control, lower intensity of resource consumption, make our development more eco-friendly and our skies blue again.” [...]

He did, however, talk about the need for “rational choices,” another dig that seemed aimed at Trump. It is “crucial to make prudent and rational choices, choices that will serve mankind well” on issues like terrorism and climate change, Liu said.

Business Insider: Incredible images of Washington, DC before it was a city

Before Washington, DC became the capital city of the United States, it was a sprawling, 100-square-mile plot of plantations, forests, and hills.

The city's urban plan was the brainchild of French immigrant and architect Pierre Charles L’Enfant, who envisioned an egalitarian design for the District — a vision that was a physical manifestation of the American dream. In the 18th century, L’Enfant filled DC with plenty of public space, including parks, plazas, and wide sidewalks.

Over time, DC transformed from a modest Native American settlement into the dense metropolis it is today.