12 May 2018

Vox: Europe is threatening to fight Trump on Iran sanctions

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said on Friday that the European Union will look into reviving “blocking regulations” that were originally created in 1996 to protect European companies doing business with Libya and Cuba from US sanctions. They were an effective tactic at the time: They actually convinced Washington to back down from imposing sanctions. [...]

Le Maire also said Europe is also looking to achieve “financial independence” from the US in response to the sanctions. According to the Guardian, one proposition for executing that would be creating “a purely European finance house to oversee euro-denominated transactions with Iran.” The basic idea is that Europe could create financial institutions that are immune to US sanctions because they don’t deal in US dollars or link up with the US financial system. [...]

Ilan Goldenberg, a Middle East expert at the Center for a New American Security and former senior Pentagon official, told me he’s skeptical that European banks and businesses will want to risk being hit by US sanctions since the effectiveness of any future European blocking regulations is unclear.

The Atlantic: A Shia Cleric's Radical Vision for Iraq

In the early days of the post-Saddam era, U.S. military officials variously described Sadr as an “annoyance” and a “thug.” But he quickly transformed himself into an influential—and controversial—figure. His fighters committed brutal atrocities in the post-invasion violence, fought the U.S. military in Sadr City and Basra, and were known for their corruption. A 2006 Newsweek cover story even labeled Sadr “the most dangerous man in Iraq.” Fifteen years after the fall of Saddam, Sadr, now 44 years old, is warily viewed as a potential kingmaker in Iraq’s parliamentary elections on Saturday. In a country riven by sectarian tensions and regional politics, Sadr has transformed himself again: He has now positioned himself as an Iraqi nationalist; allied himself with communists, Sunnis, and political independents; criticized Iran’s outsized influence in Iraq; and strongly criticized the sectarian nature of Iraq’s politics. [...]

Sadr is in many ways an embodiment of the tensions that have shaped Iraq since 2003, and a symbol what could change: if nationalism overtakes sectarianism as a political force; if Iraqi independence asserts itself over Iranian and U.S. influence; and if good governance can replace the kind of cronyism for which the country has become known. The formerly Shia sectarian ally of Iran who was known for corruption is forcefully embracing the opposite values in parliamentary elections at a time when the country may be uniquely ripe for them: Iraq has just emerged from a brutal battle against ISIS; the Shia parties are split into five major factions; there is no clear Sunni representative. And Iraq arrives at this juncture with many of the same problems that plagued it before ISIS seized large parts of the country in 2014. [...]

To understand how a man with a solid, but marginal support base can remain politically vital, it is helpful to examine the political situation in Iraq. The electoral landscape is perhaps more divided than it has ever been. There’s little to show for Shia solidarity, including in the ruling Dawa Party, where Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and his predecessor, Nouri al-Maliki, are running on different political lists. There is no clear Sunni leader. The Kurds, who until recently were both influential and powerful, have been chastened after they were crushed by the Iraqi military following the referendum on independence last year. The only certainty in the elections is that no one faction will emerge dominant in the 328-seat parliament.

Spiegel: Trump Strikes a Deep Blow to Trans-Atlantic Ties

The joint appearance by Macron and Merkel would have been a perfect opportunity for a unified reply to Donald Trump. For a joint vision of European foreign policy and a powerful appearance of decisive European politicians. They could have sought to reassure the people of Europe and demonstrate that they had a plan. But none of that came to pass. [...]

The mood in Paris, Brussels and Berlin is reminiscent of the period just prior to the war in Iraq. Most of Europe refused to back the U.S. in that conflict, even if the British and the Italians joined then-President George W. Bush in the offensive. This time around, however, the Europeans are united in their desire to preserve the deal with Iran, even if nobody knows how they might be able to.

An attack on the Iran deal is an attack on the pride of European foreign policy. To be sure, EU member states often find it impossible to produce a joint statement on overseas developments, such as the U.S. decision to move its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. But Europe has consistently demonstrated unity on the Iran deal and along with Germany, France and Britain, the EU was a decisive participant in the talks. [...]

On the way to his visit to Moscow on Thursday, Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told DER SPIEGEL: "The transformation the U.S. is undergoing has long since left its mark on the trans-Atlantic relationship. That is something that we had begun to feel long before the Tuesday evening disappointment. Nevertheless: We will continue seeking to work together with the U.S. on all policy areas. We are prepared to talk, to negotiate, but also to fight for our interests where necessary. At all levels, not just in the White House." [...]

Wolfgang Ischinger, the German diplomat, says the crisis of confidence with the U.S. could be turned into a positive. "It is another dramatic wake-up call for the European Union to finally get a grip on itself. For the European project, I cannot imagine a better motivation than this shock from Trump." Ischinger is critical of how Europe has behaved in the past months: "We should have been better prepared."

CityLab: Britain Wants to Protect Its Postmodernist Architecture

Following an announcement by Historic England yesterday, the country will grant preservation orders to 17 Postmodernist buildings, the youngest of which was designed in 1991. To some, protecting such young buildings might seem a bit like preserving yesterday’s leftover sandwiches in a museum, but the sites chosen are unquestionably memorable and distinctive. They also come at a period of renewed enthusiasm for PoMo architecture in Britain, with the first exhibition overview of the subject opening at London’s Sir John Soane’s Museum on May 16. It’s not hard to see why the newly listed buildings caught conservationists’ eyes. Beyond the high-water mark of the Victorian gothic revival, it would be harder to find a more aesthetically elaborate set of buildings in English architecture.

Do they deserve preservation? Yes. Such processes are as much about preserving representative or striking examples of a period’s architecture as they are about creating some unassailable canon that everyone agrees is impeccable. Furthermore, Britain’s system is a graded one, with varying categories of preservation that, in their lower rungs, do not rule out any adaptation but merely require it to be sympathetic. [...]

Protecting at least a few buildings of this age is increasingly becoming standard practice in Britain. In 2015, the country slapped preservation orders on a host of late 20th century concrete constructions, some built as recently as 1984. Meanwhile, seven major Postmodernist buildings were given protected status between 2016 and this winter. This 30- to 60-year-old bracket is indeed a vulnerable time for many buildings. The tenants that first commissioned them have long moved on and their fashionable glow has long dimmed, but they’re still young enough to attract the loathing of people who see any new construction as evidence of western civilization going to the dogs. As testament to the need to protect such buildings, a few key Postmodernist structures in England have already disappeared. Most notoriously, Terry Farrell’s TV AM television studio, a North London landmark, was stripped of its PoMo embellishments in 2011. The stripping of this building to a characterless shadow of its past self shows how important it is to preserve provocative, divisive buildings even—or especially—when they are still going through a difficult adolescence.

Politico: Federica Mogherini: Iran nuclear deal will hold

The Italian diplomat will meet with the foreign ministers of Germany, France and the United Kingdom — the three European powers that brokered the nuclear deal along with the EU, U.S., China and Russia — in Brussels Tuesday to discuss the future of the agreement. The European diplomats will also meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.

Europeans are seeking to demonstrate that they can still deliver most of the economic benefits Tehran was promised in exchange for giving up its nuclear weapons program and allowing a robust system of international inspections, as well as persuade European companies active in Iran not to abandon their deals out of fear of being penalized by the U.S.

In her speech, Mogherini took several shots at Trump, though she did not mention the U.S. president by name, saying: “It seems that screaming, shouting, insulting and bullying, systematically destroying and dismantling everything that is already in place, is the mood of our times. While the secret of change — and we need change — is to put all energies not in destroying the old, but rather in building the new.

America Magazine: Controversy over L.G.B.T. Knight highlights tensions at Catholic colleges

The episode is the latest in a years-long struggle for colleges and universities affiliated with the church to balance support for increasingly diverse student populations while adhering to church teaching, which holds that same-sex relations are sinful, even if identifying as gay or lesbian is not. [...]

Father Guevin asked Mr. Keyes to resign his post, citing the possible scandal he would cause by continuing to serve in leadership. In an email to America, Father Guevin said that scandal is “an action that can lead to confusion and doubt regarding the church’s teaching.” [...]

Some students felt that some of Mr. Mattson’s claims are unsupported by science and fail to represent recent developments in the church’s attitude toward same-sex relationships. They wrote to the campus newspaper claiming the university was being hypocritical by calling its L.G.B.T students “beloved” while restricting them from inviting speakers with opinions that do not conform to the teachings of the church. [...]

Last month, Marquette University in Milwaukee stood behind its L.G.B.T. students when a Catholic group called for the administration to cancel a “Pride Prom” event held on campus. Crux reported that the university supported the event and issued a statement saying the U.S. bishops have “expressed that there is no room for discrimination in the Catholic Church, and we will continue to make progress through inclusivity.”

The Daily Beast: How Iran Could Beat Trump at His Own Game

The United States is not a significant source of trade or investment for Iran. Being unable to sell or buy directly from the United States will not have a big impact on the Iranian economy. The problem for Iran is the so-called secondary sanctions—the inability of non-American companies to access the American market or use the U.S. banking system if they do business with Iran.

But, secondary sanctions are a game that two can play. The European Union collectively has an economy larger than that of the United States. China, also a party to the JCPOA, is the world’s second largest economy. If the United States can use secondary sanctions on European and Chinese businesses to promote its foreign policy objective of hurting Iran, the Europeans and Chinese can retaliate with secondary sanctions aimed at preserving the agreement.

Iran might reasonably work with Europe, China and Russia to foil U.S. secondary sanctions. Such arrangements might even enhance the economic value of the nuclear deal to Iran since many European companies were unwilling to invest in Iran under the JCPOA because of remaining (not nuclear related) U.S. sanctions. [...]

There was nothing that Macron wanted to accomplish more than to persuade Trump to stay in the Iran deal. He failed as he said for U.S. domestic reasons  (i.e. Trump’s obsession with humiliating his predecessor). Indeed, Macron has nothing to show for his cultivation of Trump—not on the environment, trade, or anything else.  Almost certainly, he will now try a different tack. With the United States itself isolated, the French president is the natural leader of Europe and the free world. And to accomplish Europe’s objectives, Macron will now likely chart an independent course. And, almost certainly part of that will be to find ways to keep Iran in the JCPOA.  

Deutsche Welle: With Emmanuel Macron, the EU still has a chance

When he says that the EU cannot afford to be weak given the challenges it faces on the domestic and foreign policy fronts, it is immediately obvious. The EU has to act in order to renew itself, and it has to act now. This is Macron's core theory. And the EU must not be afraid. In saying this, Macron was also directly appealing to those EU citizens who are wavering and losing heart. Solidarity among people within the bloc must be restored, he said, whether on economic issues or on migration. Nationalism must be warded off, and a multilateral world order must be established. Macron sees himself as the alternative to the president of the United States. He is the European anti-Donald Trump. [...]

Macron's proposals are concrete; Merkel's are still vague. She promised this would change at the EU summit to be held at the end of June. Germany and France also agree that the EU ought to play a greater foreign policy role — especially in the Middle East. The Iran deal must be upheld as best it can. Merkel repeated her statement that Europe could no longer rely on the US as a guarantor for defense and security.

In his speech, Macron the European once again made it crystal clear that there will be a price to pay for the continuing development of the EU. Germany must relinquish its opposition to a transfer union. France must give up its resistance and be prepared to accept EU treaty changes, i.e. be prepared to take a democratic risk.

Bloomberg: Theresa the Delayer: May's Secret to Surviving in Brexit Britain

The minister’s colleague was more sanguine. May has survived so long by avoiding confrontation and would continue by finding a compromise that enables both sides to declare victory.

At least part of May’s strategy appears to be more procrastination: An inner cabinet meeting was canceled Thursday, and another scheduled on Tuesday is now uncertain. Meanwhile, lawmakers wonder when they’ll get the chance to vote on key pieces of Brexit legislation. Two have been on pause since February, and May has now put her flagship EU withdrawal bill on ice. [...]

Debates in the House of Commons on May’s Brexit laws, when they come, are likely to expose her predicament even further -- she’s stuck between a likely majority for a customs union, and the more than 60 lawmakers in her Conservative Party threatening to derail her government if she goes for one. [...]

Delaying to apply pressure would anger her lawmakers, but this is where May’s capacity for long-suffering helps. With the Conservatives divided on Brexit, neither wing of the party is keen to remove her in case they like her replacement even less. Surrounded by critics and undermined by her Cabinet, May stays for as long as she can stand it.