5 July 2018

Aeon: The many deaths of liberalism

So why do we read so often today that liberalism is in crisis, failing or already dead? Scholars and pundits of various ideological persuasions are busy signing death certificates and offering obituaries for liberalism, often without clearly defining what they mean by that term. Some claim that liberalism has failed to live up to its own promises. Others argue that it has become irrelevant precisely because it has succeeded in building a free society on allegedly dangerous foundations, such as individual autonomy, neutrality with regard to the good life, and free markets. These critics might differ among themselves, but they all seem to agree that liberalism can no longer solve our deep social, cultural, political and economic problems, and that it has become ‘unsustainable’.

Not coincidentally, all of these critics are living, writing and publishing in liberal countries. And they are demonstrating one of liberalism’s most successful features simply by participating in the quintessentially liberal enterprise of dialogue and disagreement under constitutional protections (with liberal limitations). These are, in fact, the only states in which actual competition for power and dissent is not just allowed but fostered. No one living in a totalitarian society has had the luxury of declaring liberalism, let alone totalitarianism, dead. Nevertheless, the pessimism of liberalism’s critics appears sensible, given the current depressing political climate, dominated by fears of the re-emergence of nationalistic populism reflected in Brexit and the rhetoric of, and policies pursued by, leaders such as Donald Trump in the United States, Vladimir Putin in Russia and Viktor Orbán in Hungary.   [...]

The intellectual attraction of liberalism’s jeopardy must be great indeed because liberalism has been declared dead so often. We conducted a Google Books Ngram analysis, which graphs the number of books containing a certain word or phrase as a percentage of all books in Google’s collection, numbering more than 30 million volumes at present. (We do not claim that the Ngram analysis presents a complete or completely accurate representation of publication frequency. We did not test alternative search terms, such as ‘liberalism is dead’ or ‘liberalism is dying’. Moreover, Google’s Ngram analysis does not capture many journal articles.) According to this analysis, liberalism first died in the late 1870s (although, according to Hirschman, it was already declared to be dying as early as the 1830s), then died some more at the turn of the 20th century, and has been dying almost continuously since 1920. [...]

The problem for anyone declaring the death of liberalism is that it has not one but several pillars and dimensions: legal, political, economic and moral (or religious). The weakening or disappearance of one or two liberal pillars or tenets would not be enough to declare liberalism as a whole dead. For example, one might express skepticism toward key liberal principles such as the commitments to individual agency and individual choice, while maintaining a commitment to freedom of expression. In the same vein, one might be skeptical toward unregulated markets or trade, but embrace other essential features of liberalism such as nondiscrimination under law, security of property rights and freedom of contract. Neither does liberalism require open borders, but it opposes limits on immigration based solely on what the potential immigrants look like, where they come from, what language they speak or their religious preferences. 

Haaretz: Assad’s Syria 2.0: A Shrunken State but a Better Neighbor for Israel

But what next? Assad’s victory looks to be about as Pyrrhic as they come. Much of Syria lies in ruins. By some estimates, its economy has shrunk by 60% or even more.  More than 12 million of the country’s pre-war population of 22 million are living as refugees inside or outside Syria.

The cost of rebuilding the country is usually estimated at about $250 billion, of which the regime itself says it can cover maybe $8 billion to $13 billion. Assad’s allies, Russia and Iran, are too cash-strapped to finance a reconstruction effort even if they could perform the construction work that’s needed. 

China isn't a likely source. Anxious about mounting foreign debt, it has been having second thoughts about committing itself to funding infrastructure projects in dubious places where the prospects of getting paid back are poor. The West might be blackmailed into helping rebuild Syria as a way of enticing Syrian refugees back home, but as we will see shortly that is highly unlikely to happen. The Gulf states, the Middle East’s traditional moneybags when it comes to rebuilding, are cash-strapped too and are highly unlikely to help an Iranian client state rebuild. [...]

Cynical as may seem, Assad’s Syria 2.0 will turn out to be a good neighbor for Israel. Shorn of much of its population and with a shrunken economy, it won’t have the people or money to field an army of the size and scale it did before the civil war. It will be more reliant on the Russians as guarantor of the regime’s survival, and Moscow has already made clear it has no interest in its client state stirring up trouble with Israel.

The New York Times: Why Do We Value Country Folk More Than City People?

 “As you go from the center of cities out through the suburbs and into rural areas, you traverse in a linear fashion from Democratic to Republican places,” observed Jonathan Rodden, a Stanford political scientist. According to an estimate from Mark Muro of the Brookings Institution, the electorate is typically equal parts Democrat and Republican at about 900 people per square mile. The exact number is higher in more Republican and lower in more Democratic states, but majorities tend to flip from blue to red roughly where commuter suburbs give way to “exurban” sprawl. [...]

Higher population density doesn’t just predict higher Democratic vote share. It also predicts a less white population and a better-educated, higher-skilled, higher-productivity work force. Immigrants and minorities have long congregated in big cities, attracted by the opportunities, services and safety in numbers they supply.  [...]

 Institutionalized cruelty and systematic fear are precisely what the Trump presidency, and the rigged political system that made it possible, have brought us. The administration’s “zero tolerance” border crackdown has separated thousands of parents from their children, inflicting unspeakable grief and permanent trauma to deter “improper entry,” a misdemeanor of no more gravity than “disorderly conduct.” Many of Mr. Trump’s victims are asylum seekers who have trekked thousands of miles to protect their children from sexual violence and gang conscription, only to have their extraordinary fortitude and love rewarded with sadistic abuse justified by a fake immigration crisis spoken into being through dehumanizing lies. [...]

But cities have few such rights with respect to their state governments. Instead, a wave of Republican states have used “pre-emption” as a tool of control over Democratic municipal authority. Red states have banned their blue cities’ sanctuary policies, minimum-wage hikes and civil rights protections for their gay, lesbian and transgender residents. Democratic state legislatures and big-city mayors should fight back, pressing for statutes and state constitutional amendments that would strengthen municipal “home rule” rights and embody new federalist principles of city-state power sharing.

BBC4 Analysis: The Middle East Conundrum

Edward Stourton asks if there any chance of a long-term solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Tensions have been rising following the move of the US Embassy to Jerusalem and the deadly clashes at the border between Israel and Gaza. The peace process - if it exists at all - seems to be in deep freeze. The idea of a two-state solution does not appear to be getting any closer, while a one-state solution would effectively mark the end of a Jewish state. Does Israel have a long-term strategy?

The Guardian: Putin will run rings round Trump in Helsinki. Bad news for the rest of us

If the extremist political forces Putin likes to promote in Europe do take over, with Trump helping to embolden them, the Russian president can begin to envision a new brand of transatlanticism, anchored in authoritarianism and white, Christian nationalism – a world view that would suit Putin down to the ground. The presence in the White House of a US leader who disparages allies, questions Nato, lashes out at Angela Merkel and says the “EU is possibly as bad as China, only smaller” when it comes to dealing with the US is quite simply a godsend. [...]

The US president believes he is on a foreign policy roll. After his summit with the North Korean dictator, Trump believes he can blaze a trail again, this time in Europe. (No matter that the meeting in Singapore was first and foremost a big win for China, North Korea’s protector). What Europeans are most concerned about right now is that Trump may say he wants to put an end to military exercises with US allies. “A remake of the Korean summit is possible, with Trump possibly also mentioning US troop withdrawals from Europe,” says Tomáš Valášek, a former ambassador to Nato who heads the Carnegie Europe thinktank. “That’s the main worry of anyone you talk to at Nato.” [...]

Traditional Atlanticist Americans often say Trump doesn’t matter all that much when it comes to Russia, because the US has in fact doubled down on spending for Europe’s defence since he came to office. But the amount of hardware you deploy will count for little if a US president signals indifference or hostility to Europe, as is already the case. Likewise, people who say Putin has been demonised and that talking to him can only help to solve problems handily gloss over who Trump is and how oblivious he can be to the consequences of his own actions on the world stage. Talking to Putin in itself is not the issue, it’s what you say to him that counts. In Helsinki, Trump the narcissist will think he’s making history. Putin the operative will be secretly chuckling.

Quartz: In Denmark and throughout Europe, assimilation is becoming mandatory

Critics claim the measures essentially represents a parallel system of laws that overwhelmingly target poor, Muslim migrants—an interesting choice of language, given the government’s policy of calling the ghettos “parallel societies.” Sociologist Amro Ali, writing in Time Magazine, claims that “the legislation reads like a 19th century missionary enterprise, a colonial experiment to civilize the brown folks.” One thing is clear: Denmark’s new laws are part of a broader European trend of attempts to use the law to make assimilation mandatory.

Key to Denmark’s plan are early childhood development measures that attempt to assimilate the children of immigrants into Danish culture and public life. Proposals include mandatory day care for a minimum of 30 hours a week for children up to six years old living in one of the 25 residential areas, which includes courses in Danish values “​​such as gender equality, community, participation and co-responsibility.”That’s a different rule than the one governing Danish parents who are legal citizens, who are free to choose whether to enroll children in preschool up to the age of six. Another rule would instate targeted language tests in the first year of primary school in schools where more than 30% of students come from one of the 25 “ghettos,” in order to ascertain that children are reaching Danish language benchmarks.

Some measures appear explicitly punitive. One targets primary schools with a large proportion of “ghetto children” who miss certain achievement criteria for more than 3 years in a row. Those schools will now incur sanctions, including a possible shutdown or government takeover. Another proposal involves withdrawing social benefits from parents whose children miss more than 15% of the school quarter. Perhaps the most striking is the last measure, which involves a possible four-year prison sentence for immigrant parents who take their children on “extended visits” to their country of origin in a way that the Danish government determines compromises the children’s “schooling, language and well-being.” The measure does not quantify what makes for an extended visit.

FiveThirtyEight: Justice Kennedy Wasn’t A Moderate

An analysis of Kennedy’s voting record during his three decades on the court shows that he voted with the court’s right wing in the majority of cases — including controversial, closely decided cases — throughout his career. And although he was likelier to side with the liberals once he became the court’s swing vote, legal experts say that he occupied the ideological middle ground on relatively few issues. “When you have an odd number of justices, someone is always going to be in the middle, and Kennedy was certainly in the middle a lot,” said Steve Vladeck, a law professor at the University of Texas at Austin. But on many topics, Kennedy was as far to the right as his conservative colleagues. “The reality is that in a lot of cases, we may not see much of a difference between Kennedy and his successor.” [...]

Since he joined the court in 1988, Kennedy voted in a conservative direction about 57 percent of the time — a record that’s nearly identical to that of Chief Justice John Roberts and only slightly less conservative than Justices Samuel Alito, Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas. And in close decisions, Kennedy sided with the conservatives 71 percent of the time. That’s not quite as consistently conservative as Roberts, Alito, Scalia and Thomas, all of whom cast conservative votes in at least 80 percent of cases with a five-justice majority, but it’s not exactly moderate either, since we might reasonably expect to see a moderate casting conservative votes closer to 50 percent of the time. [...]

On other issues, Kennedy actually became more conservative as his career wore on. Between the term starting in 2006 and the one ending in 2017, he cast a conservative vote in 23 of the 25 close decisions on economic issues. During this time, he helped shape a broad view of freedom of speech that he used to justify unlimited corporate campaign spending and to strike down regulations on commercial speech. He also sided with the court’s conservative bloc in a wide range of cases that gave companies more power over workers, consumers and organized labor. It was Roberts — not Kennedy — who ultimately voted with the liberals to uphold the Affordable Care Act. And in his last term on the court, Kennedy didn’t side with the four liberals in any close decision. “With the exception of just a few issues, Kennedy voted with the conservative wing of the court in most highly ideological cases,” said Geoffrey Stone, a law professor at the University of Chicago. “I’d hardly call that moderate.”

IFLScience: A Group Of Panama Monkeys Have Entered The Stone Age

The first report of this behavior in the park's monkeys dates back to 2004, when co-author Alicia Ibáñez noticed the monkeys using stone tools. Researchers went back in March 2017 and placed camera traps across the three islands to catch the monkeys in the act.

The team witnessed the male monkeys break coconuts, crabs, and snails. However, it is unclear why this behavior is not more spread out to other groups on the island. The researchers note that individual monkeys move between groups, so in theory the innovation should spread.

The team suggest that it is possible that entering the Stone Age has a chance component to it, rather than being an expected trajectory for primates. Perhaps, for example, a smarter-than-average individual began using the tools and the others copied him. Given limited food options, tools can increase their chance of survival.

Social Europe: The End Of Global Britain

Trump’s evident lack of personal chemistry with British Prime Minister Theresa May – and the Anglophobia of his new national security adviser, John Bolton – ensured that this was never going to be the best of times for the United Kingdom. But it also doesn’t help that generations of British foreign-policy hands have regarded themselves as ancient Greeks to America’s Rome. To a Brit like myself, this analogy always seemed too confident. Having lived in America, I suspected that US leaders did not heed the advice of British diplomats nearly as much as those diplomats liked to think. [...]

At the same time, the British government’s all-consuming preoccupation with untying the Gordian knot of Brexit has blinded it to what is happening in the rest of the world. And its blinkered view seems certain to persist. Negotiating the terms of Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union is likely to take years, and the outcome will inevitably have implications for the country’s unity, given the intractable issue of the Northern Irish border. Even if that issue can be sorted out, a campaign in Scotland to link it to the EU rather than to London will continue to command the attention of the government and civil service for the foreseeable future. [...]

A country like India could potentially be a major UK trade partner after Brexit. The problem is that Indians see Britain and Europe as one market. To them, Britain’s quest to adopt its own rules and standards amounts to a frivolous inconvenience. Before expanding trade and investment with Britain, India will most likely pursue a deeper relationship with the EU. Indeed, India never saw Britain as a particular champion of its interests inside the EU.