Slate: What Works in Afghanistan

The first is America’s legendary sponsorship of the Afghan mujahedeen who beat back the Soviet invasion between 1979 and 1988. This covert effort began with small amounts of support funneled through various middlemen (including Pakistan’s shadowy security apparatus) and grew into billions of dollars of money, sophisticated weapons (like Stinger missiles capable of shooting down Russian helicopters), and technical assistance. What made this effort so successful was its narrow goal—inflicting Soviet casualties in the context of the Cold War—and the simple truth that it’s easier to support an insurgency than a counterinsurgency, especially when that insurgency is playing on its home turf. However, after this insurgency pushed out the Soviets, the U.S. washed its hands of this support. Over time, parts of this rebel movement would evolve into al-Qaida and the Taliban, with major long-term repercussions for the U.S. [...]

This reflects a broader theory of counterinsurgency that it’s best done by indigenous security forces. To the extent that much of the current U.S.–Afghanistan strategy relies on supporting Afghan forces as they fight the Taliban and al-Qaida, this holds some promise. However, foreign forces cannot fight our wars; eventually interests diverge, or conflict emerges between client and patron. This may soon happen in Afghanistan, particularly if the Afghan government decides to reach a political settlement with the Taliban, and possibly with al-Qaida elements, even as the U.S. wants to continue fighting. [...]

Today, the Joint Special Operations Command machine continues its work across Afghanistan and Pakistan—doing the hard, bloody, dangerous work of counterterrorism with elite special operations troops or drones. This counterterrorism effort most closely aligns with our primary interest (as articulated by President George W. Bush, and President Barack Obama, as well as President Trump) of preventing another attack on the U.S. emanating from Afghanistan. Although this machine is small, it is costly; elite troops cost more, and are in shorter supply, than their conventional counterparts in the U.S. military. However, it is conceivable that the U.S. could continue to operate this counterterrorism machine indefinitely in Afghanistan, whether led by the military’s special operations command or an analogous agency within the U.S. intelligence community. This plan is not without risk though: Counterterrorism raids often risk alienating civilians, or inflicting civilian casualties, in ways that can create enemies or undermine local government partners, as has happened in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Yemen during the past 16 years. Counterterrorism operations must be carefully calibrated and overseen in order to be effective—something that runs counter to Trump’s promise to take the gloves off and end White House micromanagement of warfighting.

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Jacobin Magazine: Assessing Trotsky

Though Le Blanc argues otherwise, there was only one version of permanent revolution — Trotsky’s. No one else adhered to Trotsky’s analysis of the coming Russian Revolution: that only workers could overthrow Tsarism and that as a result the democratic revolution in Russia would have to be a proletarian-socialist one, not a “bourgeois-democratic” one. [...]

In a nutshell, Trotsky thought he could persuade the party to adopt his domestic and foreign policies by majority vote only on condition that the leadership allow freewheeling democratic debate among rank-and-file party militants, not top-heavy bureaucratic “debate” dominated by business-as-usual apparatchiks who, collectively, Trotsky believed, had little interest in proactively building socialism at home, or working intelligently and conscientiously for socialist revolution abroad. [...]

Bukharin understood all too well that Stalin’s cure for the grain crisis was worse than the disease. Thus, a window of opportunity opened, ever so slightly to be sure and ever so briefly, to save the Russian Revolution from final destruction by mobilizing workers and peasants in its defense. Trotsky and the Left Opposition did everything in their power to slam this window shut.

Throughout 1928 Bukharin challenged Stalin’s predatory policies in the countryside, recognizing in them the risk of disaster. The Left Opposition did not.  Bukharin and his cohorts, Trotsky explained, in trying to placate the ostensibly kulak-led peasantry, were simply opening the way for capitalist restoration in agriculture and, eventually, in industry. This would be the greatest evil. Trotsky’s slogan of the day was: “With Stalin against Bukharin — yes; with Bukharin against Stalin — never!” [...]

Trotsky’s view of the Right Opposition as capitalist-roaders was fantasy. So was his view that Stalin was a centrist, perpetually tossed now to the right, now to left, and incapable of striking out on his own to become the head of a new ruling class. He never came to terms with his utterly mistaken appraisal of Stalin’s politics, itself founded on a profoundly erroneous analysis of the bureaucracy as a non-class phenomenon, a “caste.” This confounds Le Blanc’s assertion that Trotsky always admitted to errors of political judgment.

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Politico: Italy’s Northern League goes soft (on the euro)

Speaking to POLITICO last week, he didn’t attack the single currency or even the EU, instead saying “we want to give Europe one last chance, but in return we want to see real change, especially when it comes to Schengen and the Dublin treaty” — the two EU treaties that regulate cross-border movement in the bloc.

Libero, an Italian daily that follows the Northern League’s line, described Salvini’s comments (first reported in Brussels Playbook) as “a small shift in foreign policy,” with the party moving “from euro-nihilism to Euroskepticism.” It said that shift has become more marked since Marine Le Pen’s defeat in the French presidential election. [...]

In all three Berlusconi coalition governments, he has found a place for the Northern League and that will be the case again if talks to create a center-right bloc succeed. When the Northern League was in power in the past, it didn’t have a clear anti-euro line, which has emerged since Salvini took over the leadership. [...]

Salvini doesn’t just want to prop up the old warhorse Berlusconi. This admirer of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin wants to be prime minister — and he could achieve that ambition if his party gets more votes than Berlusconi’s. (The tycoon, who turns 81 next month, won’t be prime minister anyway, as a conviction for tax fraud means he cannot be elected to parliament). [...]

He has succeeded in turning the Northern League from an anti-migrant party that wanted to split from the poorer Italian south into a stronger force that campaigns against the euro (and still doesn’t like migrants), and has no qualms about forging ties with the likes of the neo-fascist Casa Pound activist group.

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The Guardian: Science envoy resigns over Trump – with a letter spelling out 'impeach'

Daniel Kammen, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, said in a letter posted on his Twitter account that Trump had failed to condemn white supremacists and neo-Nazis, part of “a broader pattern of behavior that enables sexism and racism, and disregards the welfare of all Americans, the global community and the planet”. [...]

The science envoys serve as unpaid volunteers and engage with government and non-government science officials around the world. In his letter, Kammen also criticized Trump’s decision to leave the Paris Climate Accord. The first letters of each paragraph spell out the word “IMPEACH.” [...]

Similar to Kammen, members of the President’s committee on the arts and the humanities who resigned en masse last week used the first letter of each paragraph in their resignation letter to spell out “RESIST,” a rallying cry for Trump’s opponents. 

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The Guardian: Three reasons remainers should stop calling for a second referendum on Brexit

Opinion polls certainly show a small but clear majority for remain, and disappointment among Brexit voters too over issues including the fact that the NHS will not benefit from that promised £350m a week. But there needs to be a decent interval between the original and any new referendum. The general election massively qualified the plebiscite result. The British Election Study’s survey of 30,000 voters showed more than a third switching to vote Labour in protest at Theresa May’s initial choice of a Ukip-style hard Brexit and the way she refused to reach out to the 48% of voters who were not persuaded by the propaganda of the leave camp. [...]

In February 2014, Swiss voters decided to back EU immigration quotas. Their leaders bided their time and let the consequences of such a move sink in. More than a quarter of the Swiss population is foreign born, mainly from EU member states. The Swiss economy would collapse without access to European workers. Gradually a consensus emerged in the Swiss parliament to find a way of managing immigration with internal labour market controls that avoided direct discrimination against EU workers. This was acceptable to the European commission, and the status quo prior to the referendum was restored.

If the Swiss, with their quasi-religious belief in direct democracy, can allow their parliament quietly to sideline a populist vote so clearly against the national interest, at some stage the House of Commons can move away from the current veneration of a referendum result based mainly on lies as the final word on Britain’s relations with the EU27.

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Quartz: Why do Indians hate going to the gym?

Through a recent survey of 1.06 million people aged 20-35 years in Delhi, Bengaluru, Mumbai, and Hyderabad, fitness aggregator Gympik found that only 30% reported having a gym or fitness centre membership. And even in this group, a mere 11% was regular for more than six months. [...]

For Ojha, this is because gyms are well aware that sticking to a fitness routine isn’t easy. On average, he said, only 15% of the people who have enrolled actually turn up to a gym. “Keeping this in mind, gyms over-subscribe their membership,” he explained, noting that a space that can handle 200 members a day would likely enroll 2,000 of them. [...]

But Gympik’s study reveals that a number of Indians now find hiring personal trainers a better alternative, despite the cost. Many others prefer convenient home workout videos. Moreover, a sizeable proportion is taking to other forms of exercise such as walking (30%), running (24%), cycling (11%), swimming (18%), and sports (18%).

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National Public Radio: 5 Truths About Trump Displayed In His Phoenix Rally

President Trump led an incendiary rally at which he ripped at cultural divides, played to white grievance, defended himself by stretching the truth or leaving out key facts, attacked members of his own party and the media, played the victim and threatened apocalyptic political consequences — all the while doing so by ignoring political norms and sensitivities. [...]

Played to white grievance. "They're trying to take away our culture," Trump said of activists calling for the removal of Confederate statues. "They're trying to take away our history. And our weak leaders, they do it overnight. These things have been there for 150 years, for 100 years. You go back to a university, and it's gone. Weak, weak people." [...]

Consider: There has been a usual pattern. Here's how it has gone — Trump says something attention-grabbing, outrageous or controversial. He gets lots of negative attention and criticism for it. Then, he adjusts and does something more on-script. The criticism dies down and people think maybe he is changing ("pivoting") and becoming more "presidential." And then he undercuts that with a tweet or rally soon after. [...]

Not loyal, except maybe to his family. Trump is all about Trump. Look at how he has dealt with his White House and administration. He nearly threw Attorney General Jeff Sessions under the bus, for example, threatening his job on Twitter — and Sessions was one of Trump's earliest supporters and was behind Trump when no one else in the Senate would back him.

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Quartz: Researchers have shown that politicians don’t let facts get in the way of their beliefs

Julian Christensen, a political science researcher at Aarhus University in Denmark, wasn’t particularly surprised to find that a politician’s prior belief affects how they interpret factual information—that much has been shown before. But he was taken back when he saw that politicians doubled down when they were given even more evidence that goes against their prior beliefs. “That was a surprise for us,” he says, adding, “It’s also kind of depressing.”

For the study, Christensen and a group of Danish researchers enrolled 954 Danish politicians from local government to participate in a series of experiments. At the heart of the study was a particularly thorny political debate: The role the private sector should play in the delivery of public services. While some politicians maintain that the public sector is the best supplier of public services, others argue that private contractors deliver services more efficiently. The politicians were randomly assigned to different groups. [...]

Despite this, the findings showed that when politicians were asked to evaluate the information, around 84% to 98% of politicians that received information that fit their prior belief interpreted the information they were given correctly. However, politicians who received information at odds with their beliefs correctly interpreted the information correctly only 38% to 61% of the time.

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Vox: Pope Francis is becoming the voice of compassion for the world's refugees

Monday the Vatican released a comprehensive policy document urging countries around the world to ban “arbitrary and collective expulsions” of refugees or migrants, and to expand the number of “safe and legal pathways” for migration.

The policy document, “Responding to Refugees and Migrants: Twenty Action Points,” was released by the Vatican’s section on Migrants and Refugees, a small department within the Vatican that Francis directly oversees. The document comes in anticipation of talks on immigration and migration at the United Nations scheduled for next year.

The memo also highlighted the importance of social and economic justice for those who have already migrated, including guaranteeing equal access to education for children. It also calls to prohibit “exploitation, forced labor, or trafficking” and guaranteeing the rights of undocumented workers who need to report abusive employers. Such stipulations reflect Francis’s well documented concern for workers’ issues more broadly.

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