openDemocracy: Poland's left must offer a real alternative to break the right-wing deadlock

The period of neoliberal hegemony in Poland replicated many of the so-called populist features of the present PiS administration. The division between the elite and the people was emphasised; however in this case it was the elite that was pure and progressive and the people corrupted and regressive. Similar to contemporary populism, Polish politics was also divided into two antagonistic blocs. No overtly neoliberal party was ever able to win political power in a democratic election, despite its overbearing ideological influence in public and intellectual life. Politics fractured along historical lines, with ‘post-Communist’ and ‘post-Solidarity’ camps dominating the political scene until the mid-2000s. Whilst the political debate often oscillated around questions of historical legacies, both blocs implemented similar neoliberal economic programmes once in office. By the time that Poland had entered the EU in 2004, both of these political blocs had all but disintegrated due to the unpopularity of their policies, meaning a new recomposition of party politics was required.[...]

On the one hand, the lives of many of the poorest in society did not improve and even worsened during PO’s consecutive terms (the percentage of those living in extreme poverty rose from 5.6 percent in 2008 to 7.4 percent in 2014.) . Concurrently, the lives of many of the aspiring middle class were becoming increasingly difficult. The transition to capitalism had brought with it a rapid expansion in university graduates; and for some time higher educational qualifications helped to ensure upward social mobility. This provided the material basis for the liberal ideology of meritocratic individual achievement and a justification for the structural inequalities generated by the transition to capitalism. However, the relation between education and income has been steadily weakening in recent years; and those with higher education are finding it increasingly difficult to secure full-time employment. The percentage of the workforce employed on temporary insecure contracts grew from just 5.6 percent in 2000 to 27.9 percent in 2015 (increasing from 14.2 percent to an incredible 73.1 percent for 15 to 24 year olds during the same period.) It was becoming increasingly hard to secure stable employment; raise the capital to buy a secure home; have access to high-quality public services; and look forward to a retirement with a liveable pension. [...]

After gaining power in 2015, PiS did something that was anathema in Polish politics: they fulfilled many of their electoral promises. During their first year in office, PiS introduced a generous package of child benefits, named “Family 500+ Plus” in reference to the 500 PLN (£102.84) per month in child support available for second and subsequent children under the policy. The average monthly wage in Poland is 3,429 PLN (£705.25) after tax. PiS also raised the minimum wage and lowered the pension age. The 500+ child benefit had an immediate positive effect. Child poverty decreased, between 2015 and 2017, from 23 percent to 11 percent, with the number of children receiving child benefits rising from 2 million to 3.8 million (although over 3 million children are still excluded).[...]

Simultaneously, there are severe limitations in the economic and social programme of PiS. Despite the success of 500+, this remains a conservative welfare policy which, for example, is decreasing the participation of women in the workforce. A left-wing alternative is to universalise these benefits while investing in public services, such as nurseries and housing. In order to help fund these investments, the left must do what PiS has avoided and reform the regressive taxation system. Also, the PiS government, despite its nationalist rhetoric, remains heavily dependent upon the inflow of EU funds to maintain economic growth. Once these funds are reduced in a couple of years, the base of the PO and PiS governments’ macroeconomic policies will have been eroded. The question will then be raised as to how government spending can be increased and directed towards those areas in most need of investment. Also, despite its social rhetoric, PiS remains a right-wing party that will tend to oppose the labour disputes of trade unions. Only the left can provide a political voice to such movements.

read the article

Haaretz: Guns, Trump and anti-Semitism: Pittsburgh Shooting Highlights Vast Divide Between Liberal U.S. Jews and Israel

A short time after his letter went public, 11 activists from the Pittsburgh branch of Bend the Arc – an organization for progressive Jews focused on social justice – published an open letter in which they urged Trump to stay away from the city unless he changes his rhetoric on racism and violence in politics.[...]

Continuing to address the president, they added that “for the past three years your words and your policies have emboldened a growing white nationalist movement. You yourself called the murderer evil, but [Saturday’s] violence is the direct culmination of your influence.”[...]

In conversations with Jewish residents in Pittsburgh over the past two days, it was common to hear complaints and direct accusations aimed at Trump – especially regarding the violent rhetoric at his political rallies, such as the calls to “lock up” his political rivals, or his recent praise of Republican Congressman Greg Gianforte who physically attacked a journalist last year. [...]

Yet almost none of these comments came up in remarks offered by Israeli government officials in the days after the attack. To the contrary, Israeli officials have made sure not to even hint at any form of criticism toward Trump or anyone in his political-ideological orbit. Instead, Israeli officials have thanked Trump for denouncing the incident and ordering U.S. flags in government institutions to be lowered to half-staff. [...]

For Israel, anti-Semitism is the only issue that played a significant role in the Tree of Life massacre. And in an interview with MSNBC on Sunday, Israel’s ambassador in Washington, Ron Dermer, said that “when people attribute anti-Semitism to one side of the political debate, they make a very big mistake. To simply say that this is because of one person [and] only comes on one side, is to not understand the history of anti-Semitism or the reality of anti-Semitism.”

read the article

FiveThirtyEight: People Are Changing Their Views On Race And Gender Issues To Match Their Party

A huge body of research has shown that voters were more divided by race and gender views in the 2016 election than they were in previous elections. But it turns out that rather than voters supporting the party that best represents their views about race and gender, the effect may more often work the other way — the parties may be shaping voters’ personal beliefs. Candidates and elected officials can drive a person to change their views, or loyalty to a party may dictate both a person’s beliefs and their candidate preferences.[...]

But voters’ views of specific racial issues, rather than their broader feelings about minority groups, were more likely to follow their candidate preferences. A study by Peter Enns at Cornell University found that Trump and Clinton voters changed their views on controversies like the Black Lives Matter movement to match their candidate’s views, rather than choosing their candidate based on their views about this issue. [...]

Although media attention has largely focused on Trump voters, a working paper showed that it was actually Clinton voters who underwent the more dramatic partisan shift in 2016 (echoing other findings). The largest changes in views of race and gender occurred among white liberals; their perceptions of racial and gender discrimination increased, their feelings toward minorities improved, and their support of policies aimed at increasing diversity, like affirmative action and allowing more immigration, rose. Voters who consistently voted Democratic moved to the left on these questions, especially young voters. That means studies that show an increased association between Trump support and conservative views on race and gender might in part actually reflect Democrats becoming more liberal on these questions.

read the article

Quartz: North Korea's Arirang Mass Games has a new message

Grand Mass Gymnastics and Artistic Performance Arirang aka Arirang Mass Games aka Arirang Festival — Pyongyang, North Korea  

North Korea's "Mass Games", a mass gymnastics and arts festival, has resumed after a five-year hiatus. Having once won the Guinness Book of Records for the biggest gymnastics performance in history, the Mass Games can provide unique insight into the world's most secretive nation - and this year's show brings some surprises.  

Unlike previous years, this year' arirang performance had no mention of missiles, typically a point of pride for North Korea. Instead, North Korea chose to highlight technological advances using a drone display. Messaging in the parade referred to peaceful coexistence throughout the show.

Politico: EU countries stop clock on Commission’s time change plan

His ministry is pushing for countries to be given until 2021 to decide whether they will opt for permanent summer or winter time. Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker wanted that decision wrapped up by the end of March. [...]

Hofer wants the Commission to appoint a coordinator — a sort of EU-wide time lord — to oversee the reform, and Brussels to include a safeguard clause that would trigger new legislation should problems arise from scrapping the unified time change.

In Graz, three countries — Portugal, Greece and the United Kingdom — said they wanted to continue the annual shift to daylight saving, while Cyprus, the Netherlands, Ireland, France and Denmark said they had not yet reached a position.[...]

More than 80 percent of 4.6 million respondents to an EU survey backed removing the system under which clocks spring forward by an hour in March and fall back in October, with around 3 million responses coming from Germany.

read the article

Politico: Merkel’s twilight heralds German turmoil

The decision injects further instability into German politics, increasing the likelihood that Merkel’s grand coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD), already hanging by a thread, will collapse in the coming months. What’s more, it now appears inevitable that the race to succeed her atop the CDU will unleash a bitter battle over its direction, one that will further distract the party from governing.[...]

While Merkel said she intends to remain chancellor until the end of the legislative period in 2021, her decision not to run again for the CDU’s chairmanship when her term expires in December unleashed forces she can no longer control.[...]

She insisted the move wasn’t triggered by Sunday’s election, but by her decision over the summer, which she had not previously shared with the public, not to pursue another term as chancellor. Handing over the reins of the party now would ease the transition and allow the CDU, still Germany’s dominant party despite recent losses, to retain its strength, she argued. If Merkel really planned Monday’s move months ago, she kept the decision close to her chest, not even telling Kramp-Karrenbauer, who on Sunday evening insisted Merkel intended to run again for the CDU chairmanship.[...]

A persistent critique of Merkel in the CDU’s more conservative quarters has long been that she moved the party too far to the left, abandoning its roots. Much of that criticism has focused on the refugee crisis but it extends to social issues as well, with Merkel skeptics accusing her of steering the party away from its traditional values on family and religion. Merkel’s belief that “Islam is a part of Germany” is one of a number of her positions that conservatives take issue with.

read the article

The Atlantic: A Slow, Somber End to the Merkel Era

Merkel—who has led her party for 18 years and her country for 13—will continue as Germany’s chancellor until the next federal elections, expected in 2021, but she will relinquish her position as the leader of the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) in December and won’t run for further political office. “I am sure today that it’s time to open a new chapter,” she told reporters in Berlin.[...]

But while she survived all those battles on the surface, each dealt a blow to her image as the country’s beacon of stability and, perhaps more importantly, to her standing within her party. “It’s quite clear that the election last September was a turning point,” Jan Techau, who heads the German Marshall Fund’s Europe project, said in an interview. “Since then, she’s been under tremendous pressure to give some sort of indication as to how long this can last.”[...]

Hesse was the final straw: The state-level election there very clearly became a referendum on the performance of Merkel’s government in Berlin, and both the CDU and the center-left SPD posted significant losses as a result. Despite Merkel’s personal involvement in the campaign—she stumped with Hesse Premier Volker Bouffier across the state multiple times—her party dropped more than 10 percentage points in the past five years. Merkel nodded to the Hesse results in her remarks Monday, saying the party’s support there was “disappointing and bitter” and a “clear signal that things can’t go on as they are.”[...]

But it also poses a challenge: Whoever takes over from Merkel as party leader is someone she will have to work closely with for the remainder of her chancellorship. A like-minded CDU leader could make that transition easier than a rival. Merkel has nevertheless said she is ready to work with whomever is chosen to replace her. “I am someone who can work very well together with a lot of different people, and I think I have a reputation for it,” Merkel said.

read the article

Vox: “A collapse of the center”: why fringe movements are winning around the world

People from Europe to Latin America are increasingly concerned about their economic well-being and general safety, experts say. The problem is that it seems only fringe movements — especially those on the far-right — are the ones offering new solutions for how to meet those needs.[...]

But the 2008 financial crisis, an uptick in terrorist attacks on the continent, and millions of refugees moving into Europe fueled a backlash to increased globalization. Fringe political parties in Europe that already believed in curbing globalization took advantage of that growing sentiment.[...]

As Vox’s Jen Kirby reports, voters in Brazil have grown frustrated with the status quo due to a slew of political and economic crises. The current center-right president, Michel Temer, is deeply unpopular in the wake of a struggling economy and a massive corruption scandal that has engulfed ministers in his government.[...]

“The post-World War II international order was already fading,” Richard Haass, the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, told me, “and these developments will only add to the unfortunate momentum.”

read the article