FiveThirtyEight: Trump’s Scorning Of Data May Not Hurt Him, But It’ll Hurt The GOP

Data doesn’t win elections; candidates do. Presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump bet on that idea last week when he announced his plan to rely on his personality and rallies in the general election instead of collecting data on voters. Trump has a point: The effect of “big data” and improved analytics on elections is often overhyped. Even David Plouffe — the architect of President Obama’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns, the most data-savvy in history — agreed that Obama’s “data processing machine” was not responsible for his wins. 

But Republicans are worried, and for good reason: Trump’s assumption that the sole value of data is to win more votes is too narrow. His decision to limit the role of data probably won’t be the deciding factor in the 2016 election, but data organization and access are an investment in the future of the party. A presidential campaign presents a rare opportunity to cultivate the next generation of talent and collect a ton of new data on voters, and Trump’s refusal to do so means that Republicans may need to wait until 2020 or beyond to even the playing field with Democrats. [...]

Democrats now hold a substantial expertise advantage in digital data-driven campaigning, and the GOP admitted as much in their 2012 election post-mortem. John McCain hired only 15 data staffers in 2008, compared with Obama’s 131. To his credit, Mitt Romney increased the number of data hires to 87 in 2012. (Obama had 342). In 2016, Republicans were positioned to build on this effort and narrow the analysis gap between the parties, pivoting off of two consecutive losses into an innovative data strategy — just like in 1964 and 2004.

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The Jerusalem Post: Israelis, fearful for economic future, want Scandinavian-style government, survey shows

On one hand, most Israelis say their financial situation is good and getting better. On the other hand, they’re worried they won’t be able to provide for their children.

On one hand, they want significantly more government spending in a wide range of public services. On the other hand, they say they pay too many taxes. [...]

Recent data, in some ways, depict an unequal economy. According to a report by Israel’s Taub Center for Social Policy Studies, Israelis spend more on consumer goods in comparison to the residents of other OECD countries — particularly food. Only three countries in the OECD have greater income inequality, defined by the group as the difference in income between the richest 10 percent and the poorest 10 percent. More than one-fifth of Israelis live under the poverty line. [...]

Israeli Jews in particular, according to the survey, look to the government to better their lives. Nearly 60 percent of Jews prefer a “Scandinavian model” economy, with high taxes and a robust welfare state, over an “American model” with lower taxes and fewer government services. Nearly half of Jews (45 percent) say they want more government involvement in the economy.

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Global Voices Interviews Activists From Defense of Democracy Committee Who Say Poland Is in Peril

Jarek Marciniak divides Polish people in three categories: those who have no idea how a democratic state works (80 percent), those who have a general but unspecific idea (15 percent), and those who are experts (5 percent). He is a board member and one of the founders of the Committee for the Defense of Democracy (KOD), a civic movement initiated in opposition to the actions of Poland's current conservative government led by the Law and Justice party (PIS). [...]

On the one hand, KOD organises massive demonstrations (between 45,000 and 240,000 people attended the last one, depending on who you ask), and the group counts many prominent names among its patrons and supporters. On the other hand, KOD has been accused over-representing wealthy, middle-class Poles afraid of losing their privileges. [...]

In Poland, we still have this mistaken belief that the majority is allowed to do anything it wants. When I start to discuss that with people, many confirm it. I ask them, “So you like the current situation?” and they say, “Yes”. “We have an ultra-Catholic, ultra-right-wing government and it is introducing certain types of bans and that is okay”. “Yes, because the majority is right”. I say, “All right, then imagine now that in four years the situation changes and an ultra-left government gains power. They say that with a certain income you are allowed to have only one child, you can get abortion up to fifth month, marriage between same sex couples can be performed in churches, and the church needs to respect that. Is that okay for you?” I hear, “No”. So what's the difference? Liberal democracy is about the majority ruling but taking care of the minorities, too. There are certain laws—rules that are immutable. And no matter who is in power they should be preserved.

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Bloomberg: Poland Is Testing the EU's Commitment to Democracy

This state of play is the result of elections last year that gave an absolute majority to PiS in the legislature, even though it won 37.6 percent of the vote on a turnout of 51 percent. The party’s leader, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, effectively combined conservative social policy with populist economic policy. (Sound familiar?) [...]

So far there’s been no violence. But KOD, a new pro-democracy movement, put an estimated 200,000 people on the streets for a protest in early May. Its leaders say they are worried that it’s only a matter of time before blood is spilled. [...]

It’s hard to imagine that the language of the unrepentant PiS vote wasn’t affected by the rhetoric of the movement pushing for the U.K. to leave the EU, which emphasizes that membership, particularly in the European Commission, compromises British sovereignty.

Another echo is the recent insistence by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey that the EU can’t tell him how to govern his country.

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Deutsche Welle: Meeting between AfD and Muslim group breaks down

"The AfD wasn't united behind it," said Hans Vorländer, professor of political science at the University of Dresden. "So for Petry that was an excellent way of getting out of it again, and then she could show that she stayed tough and put the blame on the Muslims. It could well have been a deliberate strategy."

"The AfD is increasingly presenting itself as an anti-Islam party," Vorländer told DW. "If she'd come out being more nuanced it would have altered that hard profile." That, as far as Vorländer is concerned, was never an option for Petry. [...]

Abdul Adhim Kamouss, a Berlin imam, said he did not necessarily agree with comparing the AfD to Nazis, but added that this was no reason to break off the discussion. "They should have explained their arguments or their view of the situation, but just cutting off the discussion, that's a minus point for them," he told DW.

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Time: Mikhail Gorbachev: Putin Is an Obstacle to Progress

The present Russian regime need have no delusions that conservatism is a panacea for our problems, lulling themselves with the belief that for the sake of peace and quiet people will agree to put up with stagnation. They are wrong. I am increasingly convinced that all they are doing is playing for time, clinging to power for its own sake, clutching at the benefits a minority extract from the current state of affairs.

People are not blind and their patience is not limitless. They have demonstrated in protest on Bolotnaya Square and Sakharov Prospekt, demanding change. If there is none, the protests will not just be repeated but will become more radical. That is dangerous and must be avoided. Russia really does not need more turmoil, she needs change, change that opens the way to a genuine renewal of society and improvement in people’s lives. [...]

Another five or six years of this and Russia is unlikely ever to be able to escape from this dead-end situation.

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The Guardian: Portugal runs for four days straight on renewable energy alone

Electricity consumption in the country was fully covered by solar, wind and hydro power in an extraordinary 107-hour run that lasted from 6.45am on Saturday 7 May until 5.45pm the following Wednesday, the analysis says. [...]

In 2015, wind power alone met 42% of electricity demand in Denmark, 20% in Spain, 13% in Germany and 11% in the UK.

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Last Week Tonight with John Oliver: Primaries and Caucuses

Primaries and caucuses are a surprisingly undemocratic part of the democratic process. John Oliver discusses our convoluted system for choosing presidential nominees.

The Daily Beast: The Real Christian Preacher Sex Scandal Is How Many There Are

Exposing religious sexual hypocrisy is, as the cliché goes, like shooting fish in a barrel. If you follow the right Twitter accounts, literally every day there’s a new story of religious conservative leaders philandering, downloading illegal pornography, cruising for gay sex on the down low, or, by far worst of all, sexually abusing minors or other vulnerable people. [...]

But conservative Christianity is institutionalized reaction formation. Socially, culturally, and theologically, it drums in the message that sex is bad, that you are bad for wanting it, and that people who say they want it are even worse than you. This is not true for liberal Christians (or Jews or Muslims); but it is true for almost all conservative Christians (or Jews or Muslims).

That’s why, when yet another pastor falls from grace—with boys, girls, women, men, it almost doesn’t matter—it’s not seen as a refutation of Christian doctrine, but a confirmation of it. See, none of us is above sin. That proves that all of us are sinners and are only hope is the grace of God. [...]

This is also why the majority of these offenders are conservative, not progressive. To be sure, there are also liberal philanderers and liberal sexual offenders—my own Jewish Renewal community is still reeling from one of them, a serial offender named Marc Gafni who has since resurfaced as Whole Foods founder John Mackey’s personal guru. But in general, religious conservatives have it exactly backwards. The sexual liberals of the world aren’t more sinful when it comes to sexuality. Because they’re healthier, they sin less—and by “sin” I mean actually harming other people, rather than inserting tab A elsewhere than slot B. Once sex isn’t some demon to be repressed, but is simply part of the human experience, a capacity that can be used wisely or unwisely—well, then it’s just not that big of a deal anymore.

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Medium: Blaming Immigrants For Everything

In Austria, there are two major problems facing the country. The first problem is with pensions and the future outlook of older people. The second problem is the rising rate of unemployment.

And in Austria, the right-wing Freedom Party is claiming that it will fix all of these by closing the borders, not integrating refugees, and enacting laws that give preferential treatment to Austrians first. It’s exactly the same narrative that we hear from other right-wing parties in the rest of Europe and the US. [...]

The key to this future is to stop being misinformed. It’s not about what political party you vote for, or whether you are leaning to the right or the left. It’s about looking at the data and realize when you are being mislead.

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