23 January 2018

The New York Review of Books: The Literary Intrigues of Putin’s Puppet Master

What really triggered the sensation, though, over Okolonolya, or Almost Zero (subtitled gangsta fiction, in English, in the Russian edition), was the identity of its author, an unknown named Natan Dubovitsky. Dubovitsky was soon suspected, courtesy of an anonymous tip from the novel’s publisher to the St. Petersburg newspaper Vedomosti, of being a pseudonym for Vladislav Surkov, who was then the Russian presidential deputy chief of staff. At the time, this Kremlin ideologue was, arguably, the second- or third-most powerful man in the country. It was Surkov, variously called a “political technologist,” the “gray cardinal,” or a “puppet master,” who had created and orchestrated Putin’s so-called sovereign democracy—the stage-managed, sham-democratic Russia, the ruthlessly stabilized, still-rotten Russia that Almost Zero was savaging. Almost Zero is now available to English readers in a limited edition from an adventurous small publisher in Brooklyn, Inpatient Press. Inpatient takes the leap and credits Surkov as the author. (And, in the spirit of Almost Zero itself, it is publishing the novel without authorization.)

Plenty of politicos write novels; but not many write eviscerating self-satires. It was as though Karl Rove had taken the knife to his and George W. Bush’s America in, say, 2005. Surkov, however, wasn’t, and isn’t, simply a Rove. The documentary filmmaker Adam Curtis calls him “a hero of our time” (in praise and opprobrium) for turning Russia’s political reality into “a bewildering, constantly changing piece of theater.” For supplying an early model, if you will, for Donald Trump’s media-savvy tactics of chaos and confusion. And what a perversely fascinating, complex figure emerges from the details of Surkov’s biography: an arch-propagandist of power and an arty outsider, an authoritarian’s right hand and a bohemian aesthete whose education included studying theater at the Moscow Institute of Culture in the 1980s (he was expelled for fighting). As the USSR was collapsing, Surkov became the public-relations mastermind for oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s pioneering business, Menatep Bank, which was where Surkov met his wife, Natalya; soon, he was heading up Russia’s fledging association of ad men. Denied a partnership in business after Khodorkovsky’s ill-fated acquisition of the oil giant Yukos in the 1990s—Khodorkovsky ended up in prison during Putin’s taming of the oligarchs—Surkov left for a position with Alfa Bank (of Trump dossier notoriety, for alleged aid in Russian meddling in the 2016 election; the owners are suing for defamation). He then ran a major TV network, before devoting his image-making and lobbying talents, first, to then President Boris Yeltsin, and, subsequently, to Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev. [...]

So how is an English reader to approach Almost Zero? I asked some Russians for advice. The author and journalist Masha Gessen hadn’t read the book. “Should I?” she wondered. I told her I thought Surkov was fascinating, apparently very smart. “None of them are smart,” she said. Pussy Riot’s Maria Alyokhina looked taken aback when I brought up Almost Zero during audience questions at her performance with the banned Belarus Free Theatre at New York’s La Mama. “I have no interest in reading it,” she replied. “I don’t think I will.” Understandably, perhaps, since Surkov was in charge of the government’s religious relations when Pussy Riot’s members were imprisoned for their punk song performance in Moscow’s Christ the Savior cathedral in 2012. I emailed the novelist Vladimir Sorokin, whose outrageous satires, like Pelevin’s, have been attacked by the nationalist youth groups supported by Surkov. “Yes,” he wrote back from Berlin, where he now lives, “people say that it’s Surkov’s book, maybe it’s true. I’ve read twenty pages and that was enough for me. It’s secondhand literature. There is no space there, no air. Only effort and the attempt to write a ‘contemporary postmodern novel.’ It’s boring.”

The Atlantic: The Entirely Rational Basis For Turkey's Move Into Syria

Through 94 years of independence, Turkish leaders have made clear that the nightmare of post-World-War-I dismemberment can never repeat itself. But it has, despite their best efforts—albeit in an updated form, involving the United States and Syrian territory that the Kurds call Rojava, or Western Kurdistan. This explains why, last weekend, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered his army to attack a district in northwestern Syria called Afrin. The area is under the control of the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its affiliated fighting force, the People’s Protection Units (YPG). This force has been an effective partner of the United States in the fight against the self-declared Islamic State, but it is also a creature of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)—a Turkish Kurdish group that both the United States and Turkey identify as a terrorist organization. [...]

And yet the Turkish operation is entirely rational—not only in terms of how the Turks view the war in Syria and its impact on their own security, but also in terms of Turkey’s geography, identity, and problematic history with great powers. Policymakers in Washington often justify Turkey’s strategic importance based on location. The country’s capital, Ankara, sits roughly at the geographic center of many U.S. foreign policy concerns in the Balkans, the Eastern Mediterranean, the Caucasus, and the Middle East. This geography also has its disadvantages for Turks. As a rump state of the Ottoman Empire, it shares long borders with threatening, unstable, or warring countries, a fact the Turks recognize. It is hard to have, in Atatürk’s famous words, “peace at home, peace in the world” when the fragmentation of countries on one’s borders threatens one’s own unity. Observers were shocked when, in October 2016, Erdogan questioned the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne that defined the Republic of Turkey’s borders. At the time, the Turks were facing the possibility that Iraq’s Kurds would declare their independence at the same time their Syrian cousins were leveraging battlefield success and American support to do the same. [...]

The twists and turns in the Syrian civil war and the American determination not to get sucked into it, but to still defeat the Islamic State, have created a slew of inconsistencies in Washington’s approach to those two goals. Being the friend of your friend’s enemy contributes to outcomes like Turkey’s Afrin incursion, which both the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the Trump administration oppose. It is true that Afrin is located in the northwest, far from the area east of the Euphrates that is of most concern to the Pentagon, but Secretary of Defense James Mattis’s declaration in response to Operation Olive Branch that “we’ll work this out” with the Turks are the words of a man—no matter how smart and learned—with little in the way of leverage. The United States is likely to accommodate itself to Turkey’s 20-mile security zone in Afrin, but the Turks do not trust (perhaps irreparably) the United States. Washington plays a central role in their century-old nightmare. 

Social Europe: Why Greece Could Have Returned To Financial Markets Much Earlier

Those developments come into sharp contrast with the pursued objective of a nominal debt haircut in spring 2015 when then finance minister Yanis Varoufakis called for various changes in European monetary architecture through the issue of Eurobonds to resolve the Greek crisis. He sought a New Deal-type of solution via an international debt reduction conference reminiscent of the 1953 German arrangement of its post-war debt and perpetual bonds. All those proposals were rhetorical exercises because they shared the same fatal flaw, that is, they depended on the willingness of international lenders to concede favors without achieving any fiscal discipline on the part of the Greeks. Finally, Varoufakis and his team pushed for an unconventional double system of domestic payments with a shadow currency, contrary to ECB rules, which was massively risky for liquidity and would inevitably result in a Grexit and a return to drachma, while its possible implementation would have strained democracy in the country with unpredictable consequences. [...]

Diverting from this impassioned chapter in recent Greek history, we here highlight instead a policy lesson that was never discussed before: that back in 2015, the option of a return to international financial markets, which is now central to seizing political and economic gains, was wide open. However, blind with maximalist posturing and wasting time with vain plans, the Greek government failed to capitalize on this path because the blame was conveniently put on “others”, that is, on lenders.

In retrospect, the return to financial markets was the sensible approach to follow although it would have involved the adoption of structural adjustments dictated by the lenders. Was there an alternative path to liberate the country early on from lenders’ demands in return for their financial support lines? In my view, there was further room for maneuver through the issuance of structural adjustment-linked bonds based on policies determined by the Greek government alone.

Bloomberg: The Way We Get Power Is About to Change Forever

The age of batteries is just getting started. In the latest episode of our animated series, Sooner Than You Think, Bloomberg’s Tom Randall does the math on when solar plus batteries might start wiping fossil fuels off the grid.


Vox: Despite Trump’s new war on pot, Vermont just legalized marijuana

In this, the Crooked Media hosts have lots of allies — virtually the entirety of the Democrats allied activists and interest group organizations are demanding a hard line. This basic dynamic — outside media and activist groups driving members of Congress to use the continued functioning of the federal government as leverage — is exactly what Democrats condemned the Republican Party for in the Obama years. [...]

At the base of Grossmann and Hopkins’s book was reams of data showing that the Democratic Party was a more fractious coalition of interest groups that were primarily interested in policy concessions — as such, they took a more transactional approach to politics, prizing strategies that would get them a deal and accomplish their policy goals.

Republicans, by contrast, were a more homogenous coalition that cared deeply about conservative principles — as such, they took a more ideological approach to politics, prizing strategies that demonstrated philosophical purity and the performative pursuit of their side’s ideals. [...]

Today, Grossmann thinks the Democratic Party is changing. “There is a direct attempt to copy Republicans tactically, particularly in terms of activism and online media trying to hold leaders’ feet to the fire,” he says. But those changes are in service of the Democratic Party’s traditional constituencies and ends: There is a policy outcome of paramount importance to one of the party’s key interest groups, and they’re willing to compromise to get it done.

Slate: Back to Square One

Following the ratification of the treaty, with the closure of the Macedonian border in northern Greece, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, an estimated 50,000 refugees and migrants from the MENA region became stranded in Greece. Because Macedonia, Albania and other Balkan countries are not part of the EU, they are not required to abide by the EU policy of open borders. They effectively serve as a buffer, blocking refugees progress from member state Greece to the rest of the EU.  [...]

With the Greek–Macedonian border to the north tightly sealed, however, the only way to leave the country was to go via illegal means—people smugglers—either by land or air. Refugees who could afford to spend upward of $3,600 per person, for a fake passport and visa, went by air. Those who couldn’t afford this expense, or who had large families, went by land along the Balkan route, the cost of which was usually half, though the risk usually doubled. [...]

For women traveling alone, oftentimes smugglers pose the greatest threats, asking for sexual favors in return for safe passage to another country. Many women are left with no choice as prices have become so high. [...]

Throughout 2016 and 2017, Oxfam interviewed hundreds of refugees and migrants who were attempting to traverse the Balkans on their way to central and northern Europe. What they found was that “rather than being places of safety, countries on the Western Balkan route have failed to offer protection or due process to many new arrivals.”

IFLScience: China Is Now The World's Biggest Publisher Of Scientific Articles, Overtaking The United States

The latest news, therefore, might not come as that much of a surprise to many, but China’s rapid rise over the last two decades has been something to behold. The amount of money that China invests in R&D has increased by 18 percent annually, while the number of people graduating with a science bachelor’s degree has risen from 359,000 to 1.65 million between 2000 and 2014, compared to 483,000 to 742,000 in the US.

The latest news, therefore, might not come as that much of a surprise to many, but China’s rapid rise over the last two decades has been something to behold. The amount of money that China invests in R&D has increased by 18 percent annually, while the number of people graduating with a science bachelor’s degree has risen from 359,000 to 1.65 million between 2000 and 2014, compared to 483,000 to 742,000 in the US.  [...]

But it is important to note that this does not mean that the US has lost its importance or influence in scientific research. While China might now be producing more research overall, the US still wracks up more citations, behind only Sweden and Switzerland, and above the EU, which is followed by China. This could reflect that the work being carried out in the US involves more fundamental questions.

Quartz: An alternative measure to GDP is proof that the global economy isn’t what it seems

Criticism of GDP has been mounting for years, with economists recommending that we demote it as a measure of progress or replace it with a dashboard of indicators that better represent living standards. Several ideas for better measures have been proposed, inspired by the work of a commission set up in 2008 by former French president Nicolas Sarkozy, which asked economists including Nobel laureates Joseph Stiglitz and Amartya Sen to come up with alternatives to GDP.

The WEF proposes a measure of its own, dubbed the “inclusive development index.” While it takes into account growth, as measured using GDP per capita, employment, and productivity, it also incorporates several other metrics, including gauges of poverty, life expectancy, public debt, median income, wealth inequality and carbon intensity. The index also considers investments in human capital, the depletion of natural resources, and damage caused by pollution.

This broader index of economic progress and wellbeing shows how the traditional measure of growth often falls short. In the past five years, almost a third of the 103 countries covered by the WEF index experienced a decrease in their inclusive development scores even as GDP increased. Among the 29 advanced economies in the sample, all but three have experienced economic growth over that period, but most—16 out of 29—saw their measures of social inclusion deteriorate, according to the WEF. Income inequality has risen or remained stable in 20 of these advanced economies, and poverty has increased in 17.

Quartz: Middle Eastern investors are only interested in three addresses in London

“We are seeing a significant surge in enquiries and sales from wealthy Middle East buyers, with a 30% rise over the last four months,” said Becky Fatemi, managing director of Rokstone, in a statement to Quartz. “What is interesting is that the Gulf investors are focusing all of their interest in buying property in the ‘platinum triangle’ of Knightsbridge, Belgravia and Mayfair. Go outside of this trio of addresses and their interest in buying declines significantly.”

Rokstone, who notes that demand is at least in part driven “by the political and economic instability in the Gulf region,” says there has been a 20% rise in enquiries from Qatar, a 15% rise in enquiries from Bahrain, and a 5% rise in applicants from Yemen. It also said that over 70% of Middle East buyers only purchase property within 10-15 minutes walk of Harrods, the luxury department store in London’s Knightsbridge neighborhood. [...]

This includes the formerly sought-after area of Hampstead where Middle Eastern buyers had previously snapped up properties in droves in the 1980s and 1990s. Now, considered “too far out” from central London says Rokstone, the difference between the asking and final selling prices is down by over 36%—the biggest drop of any luxury address in the capital.