Vox: A political scientist explains how big data is transforming politics

Big data — defined by Todd and Dann as a “combination of massive technological power and endlessly detailed voter information” — has certainly changed the way campaigns are conducted. Like corporations, campaigns now know far more about their constituents than ever before — what they read, which movies they stream, which shows they watch, where they shop, which products they buy.

This allows campaigns to identify their most likely voters and target them with ads and favorable content. The result, increasingly, is that candidates talk only to voters disposed to agree with them, as opposed to persuading those who don’t.

In the end, Todd and Dann write, mobilizing likely supporters is “faster and far less expensive than persuading their neighbors.” So that’s what campaigns do: ignore the center and concentrate on the most fervent supporters. [...]

Think of the famous Romney 47 percent line or Hillary Clinton's "deplorables" comment. Both of these statements are forms of representation where you dismiss the people who are not your supporters. When I think of my job as a politician, I can think of it as serving the entire population, or I can think of it as serving my people, my voters. So I'm looking for 51 percent, not 60 or 70 percent.

Big data makes it easy for candidates to dismiss their opponents. They now know, with greater and greater precision, how people voted and how they're likely to vote in the future, and their campaigns reflect that.

read the article  

Politico: Marine Le Pen, no longer enemy of the euro

Instead of arguing that France should reissue the franc and use competitive devaluations, as she had in the past, Le Pen laid out more conventional proposals such as changing tax rules for overtime work. She did refer — briefly — to a referendum on EU membership in her closing statement, but not to ditching the euro. [...]

It underscores how France’s foremost Euroskeptic party is adapting its language and positions in a bid to win power in the presidential election, even if that means jettisoning a core policy proposal. [...]

Indeed, according to a CSA poll published to coincide with the Treaty of Rome’s 60th anniversary, 66 percent of the French want to remain in the European Union. That’s an increase of six percentage points compared to the end of June 2016, shortly after Britain voted to leave the EU. [...]

In France, opposition to the EU is now largely confined to National Front supporters, 78 percent of whom want to leave the bloc. “Anti-EU sentiment remains powerful among people with low educational qualifications, blue-collar workers and those who feel most fragile from an economic and social standpoint, who are less well-equipped to deal with the challenges of globalization,” said Gaillot.

Such die-hard Euroskeptics make up Le Pen’s electoral base, the same people she refers to as “the forgotten ones.”

read the article 

Quartz: Marine Le Pen wants France to cut ties with most of the world—except Africa

But in Chad, Le Pen will be going against her own inward-looking and populist sloganeering. Her visit comes a few weeks after a major foreign policy speech in which she said she wanted to forge a new relationship with Africa based on “frankness, respect, and mutual cooperation.” In her self-described new approach, Le Pen called for a policy of “non-interference, which doesn’t mean indifference,” providing development aid to Africa, and maintaining French military presence in countries like Cameroon and Chad.

During a presidential debate on Monday (Mar. 20) ahead of her trip, Le Pen stressed the importance of French economic and political security. She categorically pointed out that she wants “to put an end to immigration” and blamed the centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron, who is leading in the polls, for his pro-European stances. [...]

Economically, France’s share of the African market has been weakened by the continent’s trade with China, India, and Brazil. But that hasn’t stopped current president Françoise Hollande from championing an activist policy, urging French business leaders to double trade with Africa to boost employment opportunities. The 150 companies which are part of the French Council for Investment in Africa have a turnover of €60 billion, about 80% of French economic activity in Africa.

read the article 

Mashable: This emerging country is getting unhappier by the year

According to last year's report, India witnessed the steepest declines in happiness levels between 2005-07 and 2013-15. And this, despite its gross domestic product (GDP) growing faster than most developed countries of the world. (The World Happiness Report bases its data on six parameters: GDP per capita, life expectancy, social support, trust, freedom to make life decisions, and generosity.) [...]

One in five international cases of honor killing every year comes from India, according to the United Nations. In fact, India reported an inglorious 800 percent rise in honor killings last year.

The rate of malnutrition cases among children in India is almost five times more than in China and twice than in Sub-Saharan Africa, according to World Bank. Malnutrition is often dubbed as India's 'silent emergency'.

Over 35 million children in India are deprived of education and have to work as laborers, according to the 2011 Census. And there's more.

read the article 

Associated Press: Pope Begs Forgiveness for Church Role in Rwanda Genocide

In an extraordinary statement after Francis' meeting with Rwandan President Paul Kagame, the Vatican acknowledged that the church itself bore blame, as well as some Catholic priests and nuns who "succumbed to hatred and violence, betraying their own evangelical mission" by participating in the genocide.

During the 100-day genocide, more than 800,000 ethnic Tutsis and moderate Hutus were killed by Hutu extremists. Many of the victims died at the hands of priests, clergymen and nuns, according to some accounts by survivors, and the Rwandan government says many died in the churches where they had sought refuge. [...]

In 1996, St. John Paul II refused to take blame on the church's part for what transpired in Rwanda, saying in a letter to Rwandan bishops that: "The church in itself cannot be held responsible for the misdeeds of its members who have acted against evangelical law." Four years later, however, he did make a general apology for a host of Catholic sins and crimes over its 2,000-year history.

read the article 

Bloomberg: What a Macron Presidency Would Mean for France

The domestic front is much trickier. The French president appoints the prime minister and other senior administration figures -- a straightforward process if the parliamentary majority is from the president's party; he then controls the legislative agenda. But Macron's nascent En Marche party has never fielded candidates for election, including Macron himself. It's possible a number of existing deputies from the embattled Socialist Party will change flags. Even so, France's mainstream parties are fracturing and this election is likely to yield a fragmented and obstreperous parliament rather than one committed to his agenda. [...]

He wants to create a single tax of around 30 percent for all income from capital, bringing France's high taxation of capital closer to the EU average. The corporate tax rate, which has been coming down, will be reduced to the European average of 25 percent of the five-year period. He's pledging a 50 billion euro ($53 billion) public investment program and 20 billion euros of tax cuts to be shared between individuals and businesses. That would be paid for with 60 billion euros in spending cuts and low-interest borrowing. He has also pledged to get the budget deficit down to within the 3 percent EU limit. There is more flexibility for employers but also some extensions of the welfare state.

Some of his ideas hold promise, but they fall short of the radicalism that his rhetoric would suggest. Fundamentally, Macron is a centrist who has built his following by discrediting the (centrist) establishment of French politics. The result is yet more centrism, albeit wrapped in a more glamorous package. While the National Front’s Marine Le Pen proudly rejects ties to both the right and the left in this presidential campaign, Macron has decided -- perhaps unsurprisingly given his long record of pragmatism -- to claim both.

read the article 

Bloomberg: Italy’s Struggling Economy Has World’s Healthiest People

While Italy is among the most developed countries, growth has stagnated for decades, almost 40 percent of its youngsters are out of jobs and it’s saddled with one of the world’s highest debt loads relative to the size of its economy. Yet Italians are in way better shape than Americans, Canadians and Brits, who all suffer from higher blood pressure and cholesterol and poorer mental health.

Italy also has “an excess of doctors,” said Tom Kenyon, a physician and CEO of the global relief organization Project Hope. Case in point, one of the country’s most watched and long-running television shows is called “A Doctor in the Family.”

Then there is the diet, rich in vegetables and drizzled with extra virgin olive oil. Adam Drewnowski, director of the Center for Public Health Nutrition at the University of Washington, has written about the importance of consumers having access to fresh produce, fruit, lean meats and fish. [...]

The developed world isn’t without its risks — obesity among them. The U.S. placed No. 34 with a health grade of 73.05 out of 100. It's ranking for prevalence of overweight people is 67.3 — tipping the scale as one of the world’s heaviest nations.

read the article 

The Atlantic: How to Buy Happiness

According to one oft-repeated rule of thumb, spending on experiences rather than objects makes us happiest. When asked to reflect on a purchase,  people who described experiential ones—travel, say, or concerts—were much happier than those who described material ones. [1] Psychologists believe the “hedonic treadmill”—our tendency to eventually revert to our original level of happiness following a change—operates more swiftly after material purchases than after experiential ones: A new table is easier to get used to than a trip to Chile. They also say we are better at making peace with bad experiences (“It brought us closer together”) than with regrettable objects.  [...]

University of Cambridge researchers joined with a bank to analyze the relationship between customers’ spending habits, personality, and happiness. They found that the “Big Five” personality traits—extroversion, openness to experience, conscientiousness, agreeableness, and neuroticism—predicted spending. Outgoing people splurged on restaurants and entertainment, while self-controlled, conscientious types shelled out for fitness and insurance.  And those whose spending fit their personality were happier than those who spent against type. In one case, extroverts and introverts received vouchers for either a bar or a bookstore. Extroverts were happier when forced to spend money at the bar, while introverts were happier spending at the bookstore. 

But before you go on a spending spree, a caution: More than income, investments, or debt, the amount of cash in one’s checking account correlates with life satisfaction. [6] That doesn’t mean you should be stingy, though: When people were assigned to buy goodies for either a hospitalized child or themselves, those who bought treats for a sick child reported more positive feelings. [7] The effect was the same in a rich country (Canada) as in a poor one (South Africa). Spending on friends and family likewise gives us a boost because—unsurprisingly—it brings us closer to them.

read the article 

The New York Review of Books: Xi Jinping: The Illusion of Greatness

Xi came to power offering a similarly broad range of reforms and pledging to “rejuvenate” the nation. But his measures have been limited to the classic nationalist-authoritarian-traditionalist playbook. He has pursued an expansionist foreign policy, occupying and militarizing vast reaches of the South China Sea, while at home he has cracked down on corruption and promoted traditional values.

A crucial part of this has been enhancing his own control. At a plenum of the Communist Party last autumn, Xi was elevated to a “core” leader, putting him on a higher plane than other leaders in the recent past—the idea being that China needed even firmer leadership to get through tough times. [...]

The sidelining of China’s premier, the nominal number two in the hierarchy, has been accompanied by another development that is slowly becoming clearer: Xi seems not to have appointed a successor. Because Chinese politics is not very well institutionalized, it is hard to say that this is significant at this point in the year, but it’s fair to say that most observers expected that a successor would have surfaced by now. The lack of one means either that the Party is divided (possible) or that Xi intends to elevate a loyalist closer to the Party congress so he can rule from behind the curtain once he retires in five years (likely). [...]

The government, for example, talks endlessly of China needing to improve its legal system. But the main legislation at parliament involved setting up a continental European-style “civil code.” In theory this could enshrine personal liberties and make the legal system work more effectively. But the problem isn’t a lack of laws; it’s the politicization of the system. All sensitive decisions are still made by Party functionaries, not independent judges. So the code is likely to be largely a tool to allow the Party more legal cover for ruling, rather than bringing it more under the rule of law.

read the article