More than 90 percent of Americans would be willing to vote for a well-qualified woman for president, according to a Gallup poll that posed the question last year, yet 22 percent of respondents said that they thought “most of the people they know” would not “vote for a presidential candidate who is a woman” when asked in a YouGov poll the same year. Why the large gap between what people say they would do and what they think other people would do?
One explanation is that when asked directly about their opinions, people might try to offer a more socially acceptable answer. When asked about others’ opinions, people may indirectly reveal their own true feelings. Research has consistently found that respondents lie on surveys about their attitudes on sensitive topics, such as racial or gender attitudes, out of fear of being seen as racist or sexist. This propensity to conceal one’s true attitudes in the face of social pressure is known to researchers as “social desirability bias.” [...]
For this election, the research suggests that there may be a ceiling on support for Clinton based on her gender, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that polls are overestimating her support. If anything, the opposite may be true. Even though gender will play some role throughout the election in both candidates’ talking points, there are other factors that will probably play a far more influential role in this election than the gender of the first female nominee of a major party.
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