Politico: Winners and losers from conservatives’ Helsinki lovefest

But the big prize comes with big risks. Weber becomes the man-to-beat for all the other EU political families, but he is also in danger of becoming ensnared in an institutional fight between the European Council and the Parliament over the “lead candidate” process itself. The Council has already said it cannot be legally bound to nominate a Spitzenkandidat as Commission president, as the Parliament has demanded. Weber’s lack of prior experience as a former head of state or government makes him particularly vulnerable to the Council going in its own direction. Resistance to the “lead candidate” process from the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe also raises the possibility that Weber’s time to enjoy his grand prize could be limited. [...]

Best Actor — Alexander Stubb: The former Finnish prime minister is an Ironman triathlete — and who better than a marathon runner to understand winning is not as important as getting to the finish line with your head high? Especially if you score a personal best. Stubb is virtually guaranteed a prominent role in the EU leadership going forward, perhaps as a digital czar, given his interest in the risks and opportunities of technological disruption. He will no longer be a target of opposition parties, and he faces none of Weber’s risks. If the Spitzenkandidat process unravels, Stubb could even emerge as a compromise candidate — someone who participated fully in the campaign, but may be more appealing to liberals and socialists than the conservative Weber, who is already being criticized as a longtime ally of Hungary’s self-proclaimed “illiberal” prime minister, Viktor Orbán. Stubb knew the EPP establishment was arrayed against him, but never resorted to criticism or complaint. In the EU, knowing how to lose is a winning trait.

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Bloomberg: Populism Hits Home for EU Party Papering Over Its Orban Problem

“This resolution is definitely aimed at Orban and is a balancing act in trying to explain why the EPP accommodates an illiberal party within its ranks while confronting populists elsewhere,” said Julian Rappold, an analyst at the European Policy Centre in Brussels. “But this debate won’t go away as long as Fidesz belongs to the EPP.” [...]

The EPP members will choose between two contenders: Manfred Weber, who backed triggering a sanctions mechanism against Hungary but who nonetheless said he supports dialog over punishment for Orban; and Alexander Stubb, a former Finnish prime minister who has said he would expel Fidesz from the EPP if it violated the group’s values. Orban backs Weber, the EPP’s current chairman, in Thursday’s vote. [...]

At the same time, Orban has ruled out trading his seat in the most influential group in the EU Parliament for one in the populist camp before the elections, which might help explain why the party may ultimately sign the anti-populist resolution. Fidesz would sign the text in its present form, according to a party official who asked not to be identified because no final decision has been taken.

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Politico: How Barnier could be EU’s Trojan horse

EU national leaders, however, have already warned that legally they could not, and would not, be bound by the process, because it strips away their discretion. And some political groups, especially the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, have lost enthusiasm for the Sptizenkandidat system, viewing it as overwhelmingly favoring the EPP, the center-right party which is widely expected to once again win the most seats in Parliament next year.

However, Barnier’s decision not to seek the EPP nomination means that the Council could potentially draft him as a capable, and popular, candidate — presuming, of course, that he leads the Brexit talks to a successful outcome — even though he did not run as a Spitzenkandidat. [...]

In the short term, Barnier’s decision stands to boost the chances of former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb, who is widely expected to join the contest for the EPP nomination. So far, the only declared candidate is Manfred Weber, the German leader of the EPP group in Parliament, who has the backing of Angela Merkel but no prior executive experience. [...]

Barnier’s predicament also highlights what critics of the Spitzenkandidat process cite as one of the system’s biggest flaws: anyone who already has an important job, particularly sitting heads of state or government, is unlikely to give that up to campaign for the chance of winning the Commission presidency.

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Politico: Last rites for Spitzenkandidat

Since then, the power-sharing agreement has collapsed, and the heads of government on the European Council have said they will not be bound by the Spitzenkandidat process. Meanwhile, parties other than the EPP have turned against the system, recognizing that it overwhelmingly benefits the conservatives, who are once again virtually guaranteed to win the most seats in Parliament in next year’s election. [...]

Some of the strongest resistance is coming from the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE), which has only the fourth-largest faction in Parliament but has made strong gains in national elections and is soon expected to hold eight seats on the European Council — the same number as the EPP. [...]

For now, Merkel has backed Weber’s candidacy, but her endorsement is largely a necessity of national allegiance, and in announcing her support she made clear that merely winning the party’s nomination would not guarantee that Weber becomes Commission president — an implicit renunciation of the Spitzenkandidat system. [...]

But unlike national parliaments, the European Parliament is co-legislator along with the European Council, and members of the Council have made clear that they are not willing to relinquish their legal authority over nominating the Commission president in favor of an unwritten process that gives Parliament overwhelming control.

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