The cumulative effect may leave Republicans relying even more heavily on the voters and regions most uneasy about the United States’ cultural and demographic change, or what I’ve called the “coalition of restoration.” Conversely, the election could substantially expand the Democratic advantage among the groups and regions most comfortable with those social changes, what I’ve called the “coalition of transformation.” Whoever wins, the safest prediction is that this election will widen every divide that fractures American politics—along lines of race, education, generation, and geography.
A Clinton victory would mean that Democrats have won the popular vote in six of the past seven presidential elections, or since 1992. That would be unprecedented: No party has won the popular vote six times in seven tries since the formation of the modern party system in 1828. Conversely, a Trump win would measure just how much separates a major portion of the electorate from the leadership class in virtually every American institution, ranging from business to national security to media, in the form of newspaper editorial boards—all of which have coalesced in virtually unprecedented fashion against the tumultuous GOP nominee. [...]
Less clear is how college-educated white men will vote. Many of these ordinarily Republican-leaning voters—the GOP nominee has carried them by double digits in all but three elections since 1980—express skepticism toward both candidates, and polls have varied widely on their preferences. Some late surveys show more of them drifting back toward their usual Republican inclinations, though the ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll as of Saturday showed them breaking about evenly between the two rivals. At the least, Trump appears likely to fall well short of margins of 20 percentage points or more that these men have given the GOP nominee in three of the past four elections.
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