EU national leaders, however, have already warned that legally they could not, and would not, be bound by the process, because it strips away their discretion. And some political groups, especially the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, have lost enthusiasm for the Sptizenkandidat system, viewing it as overwhelmingly favoring the EPP, the center-right party which is widely expected to once again win the most seats in Parliament next year.
However, Barnier’s decision not to seek the EPP nomination means that the Council could potentially draft him as a capable, and popular, candidate — presuming, of course, that he leads the Brexit talks to a successful outcome — even though he did not run as a Spitzenkandidat. [...]
In the short term, Barnier’s decision stands to boost the chances of former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb, who is widely expected to join the contest for the EPP nomination. So far, the only declared candidate is Manfred Weber, the German leader of the EPP group in Parliament, who has the backing of Angela Merkel but no prior executive experience. [...]
Barnier’s predicament also highlights what critics of the Spitzenkandidat process cite as one of the system’s biggest flaws: anyone who already has an important job, particularly sitting heads of state or government, is unlikely to give that up to campaign for the chance of winning the Commission presidency.
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