But the big prize comes with big risks. Weber becomes the man-to-beat for all the other EU political families, but he is also in danger of becoming ensnared in an institutional fight between the European Council and the Parliament over the “lead candidate” process itself. The Council has already said it cannot be legally bound to nominate a Spitzenkandidat as Commission president, as the Parliament has demanded. Weber’s lack of prior experience as a former head of state or government makes him particularly vulnerable to the Council going in its own direction. Resistance to the “lead candidate” process from the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe also raises the possibility that Weber’s time to enjoy his grand prize could be limited. [...]
Best Actor — Alexander Stubb: The former Finnish prime minister is an Ironman triathlete — and who better than a marathon runner to understand winning is not as important as getting to the finish line with your head high? Especially if you score a personal best. Stubb is virtually guaranteed a prominent role in the EU leadership going forward, perhaps as a digital czar, given his interest in the risks and opportunities of technological disruption. He will no longer be a target of opposition parties, and he faces none of Weber’s risks. If the Spitzenkandidat process unravels, Stubb could even emerge as a compromise candidate — someone who participated fully in the campaign, but may be more appealing to liberals and socialists than the conservative Weber, who is already being criticized as a longtime ally of Hungary’s self-proclaimed “illiberal” prime minister, Viktor Orbán. Stubb knew the EPP establishment was arrayed against him, but never resorted to criticism or complaint. In the EU, knowing how to lose is a winning trait.
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