Jacobin Magazine: Podemos Under Pressure

In the rest of Spain a wave of nationalist sentiment has seen a clear shift to the right, with some polls showing the PP and Ciudadanos, the two main right-wing parties, winning an absolute majority if general elections were held today. Podemos, the only major Spanish party to vote against suspending Catalan autonomy, has found it difficult to operate in a climate dominated by the national question. Defending an alternative federal model for the country that would recognize the right to decide, they have repeatedly been painted as “traitors” and close allies of the independence movement by much of the Spanish media. [...]

It remains acute. The Catalan crisis is a fundamentally political one and cannot be resolved judicially or through the detention of political leaders. With the imposition of direct rule, Spain might have won as a state but it has failed as a nation. Indeed at the origin of this crisis is the historical failure to construct a form of political coexistence in Spain that could aggregate the national differences and political wills into a more universal imagined community. [...]

At the same time the pro-independence parties’ strategy based around a “process of disconnection” from the Spanish state has also failed. The idea that through a series of parliamentary declarations and one-off mobilizations Catalonia was going to secede from Spain underestimated both the coercive powers of the Spanish state and the lengths to which it would go to maintain Catalonia as part of its territory. The regional elections in December look likely to result in a further impasse. The pro-independence parties might maintain their slim majority of seats but they don’t, as yet, have the capacity to advance their historic objectives. [...]

It is true for a moment on October 1st the independence movement managed to overcome its own limitations, moving from an identitarian idea of the Catalans as “a people” to a democratic sense of “we the people”. The vote succeeded as a form of popular mobilization, incorporating many who didn’t support independence but believed in the right to decide. But it should not be understood as a referendum capable of giving the Catalan government a mandate for independence. And from the moment it was interpreted as such, the possibility of building upon this mobilization to construct a broader majoritarian bloc closed. [...]

Podemos needs to concentrate on strategic considerations, but at the same time we also clearly have to respond to the demand from much of Spanish society to get rid of the current government. In theory this would involve enabling the PSOE to govern in minority while we remained in opposition. But even this seems difficult right now as it would only be possible numerically with the support of Basque and Catalan nationalists. We have to acknowledge that the opening which the re-election of Pedro Sánchez represented has closed again.

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Haaretz: Three Reasons We Aren't Seeing a Third Intifada

In retrospect, the first intifada had been an event waiting to happen. It just needed a spark. The Palestinians at that point, over 20 years after the Six-Day War, wanted to prove to themselves, the Israelis and the rest of the world that they were not prepared to continue sitting docilely by while successive Israeli governments blurred the Green Line and settlements spread, stymieing the prospect of an independent Palestinian state. [...]

The second intifada was a very different affair. It had spontaneous and “popular” elements at first, in the rioting that broke out in Jerusalem following then-opposition leader Ariel Sharon’s visit to the Temple Mount. But from a very early stage it had a much more organized fashion, with the paramilitary groups of the Palestinian Authority, Hamas and other organizations competing with each other to carry out armed attacks on Israeli soldiers and terror bombings against civilians within the Green Line. [...]

In the two intifadas, the uprising took place nearly simultaneously among all three Palestinian communities living under Israeli occupation – the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem. Currently, not only are these groups physically divided to an unprecedented extent, they also have different agendas. [...]

The PA in the West Bank and Hamas leaders in Gaza are loath to back a new round of all-out violence in their fiefdoms. They still feel they have too much to lose from chaos. Hamas is calling for an intifada, but only in the West Bank and Jerusalem where they don’t have any control. But an intifada in the West Bank will almost certainly mean the end of the PA – and when tens of thousands of officials and security personnel rely on the PA for their livelihood, there is a vested interest to continue coordinating with Israel and keeping a lid on things.

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Politico: As Russia probes progress, one name is missing: Bannon’s

And during the campaign, Bannon was the one who offered the introduction to data-mining firm Cambridge Analytica, whose CEO has since acknowledged trying to coordinate with WikiLeaks on the release of emails from Hillary Clinton’s time as secretary of state. [...]

Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee also pressed Trump campaign donor Erik Prince late last month during a closed-door hearing to explain his interactions with Bannon before he traveled in January to the Seychelles for a meeting with the crown prince of Abu Dhabi. Prince testified that his visit to the island in the Indian Ocean ended up including a separate unscheduled meeting with a Russian businessman in charge of a state-run investment firm sanctioned by the United States.

Prince, the former head of security contractor Blackwater and brother of Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, also told the House panel that he made two trips to Trump Tower in New York during the transition for brief meetings with Bannon to drop off policy materials. They did not discuss Russia or Prince’s Seychelles trip, though he acknowledged they did talk about their mutual connection to the UAE prince, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, whom Bannon and other Trump aides also met with in New York during the presidential transition. [...]

Invitations to interview Bannon come with risks for investigators. Anyone questioned by Mueller in the federal probe is free to speak publicly about what they were asked, and Bannon has a unique platform running the Breitbart media empire — which has taken a strong stance against Mueller. Bannon has also shown a willingness to lob attacks against Mueller and the wider Russia probes while urging Trump to ignore his own lawyers’ advice and take an aggressive stance against the investigations, according to a person familiar with the former strategist’s thinking.

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Politico: Germany’s biggest Brexit boon: Immigrants

Germany is enjoying a growth spurt that has legs: The European Central Bank’s monetary policy remains accommodative and the next German government will have a €30 billion to €60 billion surplus to spend, adding further economic stimulus. But the biggest economy in Europe is also a ticking demographic time bomb: Germany’s median age is now 47, compared with 40 in the U.K. and 38 in the United States. And the number of Germans approaching retirement is growing strongly. [...]

Job openings, of which there are currently a record 780,000, have been difficult to fill in some professions, such as in engineering, software and health care. Unions are adding to the shortage. The metalworkers union IG Metall is demanding work time reductions instead of hefty wage increases. Employers, already struggling to fill jobs, have roundly rejected such demands, which may well lead to the first strike in the sector in 15 years.  [...]

In theory, moving to Germany has become easier for highly educated workers from outside the EU since the country loosened its immigration laws. What are deemed to be “worker shortage jobs,” as defined by Germany’s state employment agency, are also open to migrants from outside the EU who have completed apprenticeship-type training. [...]

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party has long struggled to accept the reality that Germany is a “country of immigration.” Some 18.5 million people in the country either were born without German citizenship, or have at least one parent who was born without German citizenship. German language, culture and bureaucracy also represent hurdles for many would-be immigrants. Unsurprisingly, Germany attracted just 40,000 “qualified” workers (those with a degree or apprenticeship) from outside the EU in 2016.  

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Social Europe: Pasok: New Leadership, New Discourse To Revive Greek Social Democracy

Even worse, in the 2015 elections when Syriza, the leftist party, won power there were two elections in six months. PASOK did very badly: 4.6% in the first and 6.28% in the latest elections. There we had the really downward route. From 44% we came back first to 13%, which incidentally is the start of the rot.

Now PASOK scores in single digits. It even went down to less than 5%. At that point, it was the seventh party in the Greek Parliament after always being the first or the second. Now it’s the fourth party in the Greek Parliament with 6.28%. It’s been a steep decline electorally since 2012.

I think that the main reasons for the decline have to do with two linked factors. The first is that PASOK has been for 30 years almost continuously in power or in a position to be the first or second party, so very much involved in decision making in Greece. This has taken its toll. But most importantly, this has taken the biggest psychological toll. Then it got translated into electoral terms with the advent of the crisis because for good or less good reasons it was perceived as responsible. Not immediately because it must be noted that the crisis in Greece only really began in 2009. [...]

It’s not only the personalities that are going to change. The main thing is that in light of the crisis, in light of the more general problem also of the European social democracy, there’s a big effort to change the propositions, the discourse, the main attributes of these parties. That’s the way the reconnection is perceived. Also through, as you know, the classical social democratic way of winning mayoralities in some towns, by using local connections, by trying to be more vocal in parliament etc. But the main thing is the new leadership, the new image of rejuvenation of the party and the new political discourse of this party.

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