Al Jazeera: Interpreting the Catalan elections

This was a landslide win, in votes (over 1.1 million and 25.3 percent) and seats (37), for pro-Spain Ciudadanos (liberals). This is no doubt a historic win for many reasons. It is the first time since 1980 that a non-nationalist party clearly wins elections in Catalonia. [...]

Led by the young Ines Arrimadas, the party ran a clear anti-secessionist campaign and endorsed the Mariano Rajoy government's application of temporary direct rule. So, while the secessionists claim that the "Catalan Republic defeated the tripartite of article 155" (Ciudadanos, PSC and Rajoy's Popular Party), the biggest advocate together with the Popular Party(PP), of article 155 (even of harsher forms of federal coercion than the one finally agreed to), actually won elections in Catalonia, somewhat denting the secessionists' narrative. A pyrrhic victory nevertheless, as Arrimadas will be unable to get enough votes in Parliament to be elected the next Catalan premier.

This was a severe blow to Prime Minister Rajoy's PP and the government. The PP has gone from 19 seats in the Catalan Parliament just five years ago to 11 seats in 2015, to a meagre 3 seats this year, and will have to humiliatingly join their foes from the anti-establishment, secessionist CUP (the other loser last night, from 10 seats to just 4) in the parliament's Mixed Group. [...]

This was a severe blow to the leftist Podemos (Podem). Podemos is a Pablo Iglesias-led coalition of leftist parties in Catalonia, based on a rejection of independence (especially the unilateral independence pursued by Puigdemont's bloc) and rejection of Rajoy's policies too. It has also failed in these elections, further weakening Podemos in Spain as a whole.

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Politico: 3 ways the election changed Catalan politics

The three pro-independence parties won 47.5 percent of the votes in this week’s regional election, compared to 47.8 percent in 2015. Meanwhile, the unionists increased their share from 41.6 percent to 43.4 percent. Support for a third option— a scattering of leftist parties that refuse to be considered as part of either of the two other blocs — dropped from 8.9 percent to 7.4 percent.

One of the most remarkable aspects of the election was a truly exceptional turnout. Some 82 percent of the electorate cast a ballot — the highest level of participation in any electoral contest in Catalonia since the restoration of democracy after the death of Francisco Franco in 1975.  [...]

The second fundamental change regards the unionists. The party that received the most votes was Ciudadanos, a center-right, liberal upstart that opposed independence. Meanwhile, support for Mariano Rajoy’s Popular Party plunged, cutting its seats in parliament from 11 to three. [...]

On the pro-independence side, the most important difference in this election is the decline of the radical, anti-capitalist Popular Unity Candidacy party, which saw its share of votes drop from 8.2 percent to 4.5 percent and its representation in parliament cut from 10 to four deputies.

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Politico: For Catalan election, independence party goes back to basics

According to opinion polls, when Catalans cast their votes on Thursday, either the ERC or the centrist, anti-independence Ciudadanos could emerge as the largest party and it is far from certain whether either has strong enough allies to form a ruling coalition, meaning the political future of Catalonia — which accounts for a fifth of Spain’s total economic output — is plagued with uncertainty. [...]

Although the ERC — including Rovira — backed the unilateral declaration of independence, Rovira has made it clear she doesn’t favor another “unilateral action.” [...]

What would another pro-independence coalition do differently? “That’s the million-dollar question,” Rovira said. The plan, she explained, is to implement “all those reforms and policies that we are allowed to that will bring Catalonia forward without asking for the Spanish government’s permission.”

She gave the example of energy poverty and equal pay for women. “We’re going to launch a [negotiation] on electricity. We’re going to try not to cut the lights. We’re going to try and implement the laws that we have approved. All this without asking permission from the Spanish government. Without waiting for permission from the Spanish government.”

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Jacobin Magazine: Podemos Under Pressure

In the rest of Spain a wave of nationalist sentiment has seen a clear shift to the right, with some polls showing the PP and Ciudadanos, the two main right-wing parties, winning an absolute majority if general elections were held today. Podemos, the only major Spanish party to vote against suspending Catalan autonomy, has found it difficult to operate in a climate dominated by the national question. Defending an alternative federal model for the country that would recognize the right to decide, they have repeatedly been painted as “traitors” and close allies of the independence movement by much of the Spanish media. [...]

It remains acute. The Catalan crisis is a fundamentally political one and cannot be resolved judicially or through the detention of political leaders. With the imposition of direct rule, Spain might have won as a state but it has failed as a nation. Indeed at the origin of this crisis is the historical failure to construct a form of political coexistence in Spain that could aggregate the national differences and political wills into a more universal imagined community. [...]

At the same time the pro-independence parties’ strategy based around a “process of disconnection” from the Spanish state has also failed. The idea that through a series of parliamentary declarations and one-off mobilizations Catalonia was going to secede from Spain underestimated both the coercive powers of the Spanish state and the lengths to which it would go to maintain Catalonia as part of its territory. The regional elections in December look likely to result in a further impasse. The pro-independence parties might maintain their slim majority of seats but they don’t, as yet, have the capacity to advance their historic objectives. [...]

It is true for a moment on October 1st the independence movement managed to overcome its own limitations, moving from an identitarian idea of the Catalans as “a people” to a democratic sense of “we the people”. The vote succeeded as a form of popular mobilization, incorporating many who didn’t support independence but believed in the right to decide. But it should not be understood as a referendum capable of giving the Catalan government a mandate for independence. And from the moment it was interpreted as such, the possibility of building upon this mobilization to construct a broader majoritarian bloc closed. [...]

Podemos needs to concentrate on strategic considerations, but at the same time we also clearly have to respond to the demand from much of Spanish society to get rid of the current government. In theory this would involve enabling the PSOE to govern in minority while we remained in opposition. But even this seems difficult right now as it would only be possible numerically with the support of Basque and Catalan nationalists. We have to acknowledge that the opening which the re-election of Pedro Sánchez represented has closed again.

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Politico: A Catalan de-escalation plan

“We can’t take definitive steps until we have solid international allies,” said Mas, 61, who was Catalan president from 2010 to 2016 and continued to wield influence as part of an unofficial group of more than a dozen people making the big decisions during the independence process. [...]

In an interview in his office in Barcelona, Mas acknowledged the problems facing the secessionist camp, saying the European Union had positioned itself against Catalan independence “at this stage,” and adding that it was hard to imagine Brussels changing its mind in the short term. [...]

There has been a great deal of soul-searching in the Catalan separatist camp after the events of the past two months, which saw a referendum on secession marred by police violence; businesses moving out of Catalonia; a failed declaration of independence; a swift move by Madrid to take direct control of the rebel region; and a judicial push that could see separatist leaders — including Puigdemont, who fled to Belgium, and others currently in previsionary detention — end up behind bars.

As a result, the two main secessionist parties have slowly started to signal their willingness to move away from further confrontation with Madrid without renouncing independence. As those two goals have thus far proven incompatible, some radical secessionists have interpreted it as giving up on independence altogether.

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Politico: Spanish regions to Catalonia: Up yours

Regional leaders are key to finding a negotiated solution on Catalonia, be it to change the constitution to amend Spain’s territorial architecture — the subject of a Congress commission to be launched Wednesday — or to reach multilateral agreements on financing, which has long been a Catalan grievance.

Puigdemont and other Catalan leaders have repeatedly signaled their readiness to negotiate with Madrid on a new status within Spain; indeed, Puigdemont’s party — PDeCAT — only embraced secession after the central government rejected Catalan demands for a new financial settlement in 2012. [...]

Two senior officials in the two leading Catalan pro-independence parties said that if the secessionist camp fails to win more than 50 percent combined, they’ll need to rethink their strategy. They disagreed on whether they should seek a compromise with Madrid or focus on the long-term goal of independence if they fall short of a majority, which some polls currently forecast. [...]

Moreover, the only national party to endorse the right to self-determination and side with the Catalan demands for a referendum on secession, the far-left Podemos, has suffered a big drop in support in opinion polls in the past two months, coinciding with the Catalan conflict becoming the Spanish public’s second biggest concern after unemployment. [...]

On top of that, there’s the question of what extra powers should be given to the regions. According to the Regional Authority Index, an international database measuring the degree of decentralization for a number of countries, Spain is the second most decentralized country in the world, below Germany but above Belgium, the United States, Switzerland and Canada.

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Politico: Catalan separatists to contest election separately

Puigdemont has repeatedly advocated for a joint list of secessionist parties from his current refuge in Belgium, where he is trying to avoid detention after Spain issued a European Arrest Warrant on sedition charges. The former regional president has said he would be prepared to take part in another pro-independence coalition, contradicting his previous assertions that he would not run for office again.

However, after Tuesday’s deadline came and went, it was clear that his arguments did not convince his erstwhile coalition partners from the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), which polls put in first place ahead of the ballot. Analysts say the ERC has more to lose than to win from a new alliance with Puigdemont’s center-right Catalan European Democratic Party (PDeCAT). [...]

It’s unclear if a joint separatist platform would increase the parties’ chances in any case. Although the electoral system rewards the concentration of votes, alliances can repel voters as well as attract them. For example, leftist voters may be reluctant to choose a list that includes right-wingers and vice-versa.

A poll by Catalan newspaper La Vanguardia on Saturday placed the ERC first but didn’t guarantee the separatists an absolute majority in the regional assembly. The liberal Ciudadanos and the Catalan Socialists — both parties opposed to the latest independence bid — ranked second and third respectively ahead of Puigdemont’s PDeCAT. Other polls, however, do predict a pro-independence majority as in 2015.

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