Politico: 7 takeaways from the election of a new Catalan leader

His election shows that Puigdemont’s strategy of confrontation with the Spanish state has prevailed over the more moderate voices within the independence camp in Catalonia. That will likely mean more attacks on Spain, with the Catalans portraying it as an authoritarian state, especially when the trials of pro-independence leaders get started.  [...]

The Catalan crisis is taking its toll on the popularity of the prime minister and his Popular Party and feeding its liberal rival Ciudadanos, which many polls now put in the lead. Albert Rivera’s party is now calling for Madrid to continue with direct rule over Catalonia, an attempt to portray Rajoy as too soft on the nationalists. [...]

While both sides have called for dialogue, they mean different things by that. Catalan secessionists have refused to take part in a national process looking to reform the territorial structure of the country or in a conference on the financial system of the regions. Rajoy, meanwhile, refuses to engage in talks with the government in Barcelona that go beyond the framework of the country’s constitution. [...]

Torra mentioned the creation of a “Council of the Republic” — a body that Puigdemont wants to lead from the Belgian town of Waterloo, if German courts allow him to — which will seek to gain international support for the independence process. The new Catalan chief also mentioned an “Assembly of Elected Officials,” an unofficial chamber of pro-independence politicians who would take charge of the more defiant actions against the Spanish government.

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Politico: Exiled Puigdemont endorses jailed Sànchez as next Catalan president

The potential election of Sànchez will also depend on a court decision. He’s been in pre-trial detention since October and will need a judge’s permission to attend the parliamentary session at which he would be named regional president. [...]

He also announced the creation in Belgium of what he called the “Council of the Republic,” an unofficial group that is expected to promote the Catalan independence project — as well as safeguard a position for himself.

Earlier in the day, the pro-independence majority of the Catalan regional parliament paid tribute to Puigdemont. In their symbolic declaration, the secessionist lawmakers stated that Puigdemont is the “legitimate” candidate for the presidency, condemned Madrid’s “authoritarianism” and defended October’s referendum.

Yet they fell short of ratifying last year’s declaration of independence or pushing forward with reelecting their former leader — a move that could have triggered further judicial action against the separatists. [...]

Enric Hernández, the editor of Catalan newspaper El Periódico, said pro-independence forces are trying to combine a “government of a republic that doesn’t exist” with “the limitations of the actual [Catalan] autonomous government.”

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Politico: A Catalan de-escalation plan

“We can’t take definitive steps until we have solid international allies,” said Mas, 61, who was Catalan president from 2010 to 2016 and continued to wield influence as part of an unofficial group of more than a dozen people making the big decisions during the independence process. [...]

In an interview in his office in Barcelona, Mas acknowledged the problems facing the secessionist camp, saying the European Union had positioned itself against Catalan independence “at this stage,” and adding that it was hard to imagine Brussels changing its mind in the short term. [...]

There has been a great deal of soul-searching in the Catalan separatist camp after the events of the past two months, which saw a referendum on secession marred by police violence; businesses moving out of Catalonia; a failed declaration of independence; a swift move by Madrid to take direct control of the rebel region; and a judicial push that could see separatist leaders — including Puigdemont, who fled to Belgium, and others currently in previsionary detention — end up behind bars.

As a result, the two main secessionist parties have slowly started to signal their willingness to move away from further confrontation with Madrid without renouncing independence. As those two goals have thus far proven incompatible, some radical secessionists have interpreted it as giving up on independence altogether.

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LSE Blog: Four graphs about Catalonia and citizens’ attitudes towards the EU

Nevertheless, and in spite of the continuous demands coming from the independentists, the EU has firmly backed the Spanish government, not showing any of support to the secessionist cause. In such context, we could ask ourselves whether this situation is affecting the attitudes of Catalan citizens on the EU. In other words: could this lack of European support undermine citizens’ perceptions of the EU? In this article, I will try to find a preliminary answer to this question, by analysing survey data coming from the last Public Opinion Barometer from the Catalan Opinion Studies Centre (CEO). [...]

The trend shown in the chart suggests that the response coming from the EU has significantly affected all population groups. On the one hand, trust in the EU strongly increases among those who believe that Catalonia should be part of Spain, something that is probably triggered by the perception of the EU backing their position. On the other hand, independentists go through a reverse process, where the lack of EU support for their aspirations may be driving the decline in trust shown in the data. [...]

Once again, we see a similar divergence. The starting point varies little among voting groups, with the exception of CUP voters (which is not surprising, the CUP being a leftist antisystem party), while the difference after the 1st of October is almost 5 points. The voters of constitutionalist parties feel more attached to the EU now than they did a year ago, while secessionists feel less attached. The most striking case is that of PDeCAT voters, who were the most attached to the EU in 2016, and whose decrease in attachment is the most pronounced. [...]

A complementary interpretation could build on Sanchez Cuenca’s explanation of the support of European integration. This is based on the idea that citizens tend to be more supportive of integration when they hold negative opinions of their national leaders in comparison to European ones. Following this line, we could say that Catalan nationalists supported the EU because they perceived the quality of the policies made in Brussels to be somehow superior to those made in Madrid. But this mechanism would break down at the moment when Brussels policies are no longer perceived as distinctly better than those coming out of Madrid.

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Politico: Spanish regions to Catalonia: Up yours

Regional leaders are key to finding a negotiated solution on Catalonia, be it to change the constitution to amend Spain’s territorial architecture — the subject of a Congress commission to be launched Wednesday — or to reach multilateral agreements on financing, which has long been a Catalan grievance.

Puigdemont and other Catalan leaders have repeatedly signaled their readiness to negotiate with Madrid on a new status within Spain; indeed, Puigdemont’s party — PDeCAT — only embraced secession after the central government rejected Catalan demands for a new financial settlement in 2012. [...]

Two senior officials in the two leading Catalan pro-independence parties said that if the secessionist camp fails to win more than 50 percent combined, they’ll need to rethink their strategy. They disagreed on whether they should seek a compromise with Madrid or focus on the long-term goal of independence if they fall short of a majority, which some polls currently forecast. [...]

Moreover, the only national party to endorse the right to self-determination and side with the Catalan demands for a referendum on secession, the far-left Podemos, has suffered a big drop in support in opinion polls in the past two months, coinciding with the Catalan conflict becoming the Spanish public’s second biggest concern after unemployment. [...]

On top of that, there’s the question of what extra powers should be given to the regions. According to the Regional Authority Index, an international database measuring the degree of decentralization for a number of countries, Spain is the second most decentralized country in the world, below Germany but above Belgium, the United States, Switzerland and Canada.

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Politico: Catalan separatists to contest election separately

Puigdemont has repeatedly advocated for a joint list of secessionist parties from his current refuge in Belgium, where he is trying to avoid detention after Spain issued a European Arrest Warrant on sedition charges. The former regional president has said he would be prepared to take part in another pro-independence coalition, contradicting his previous assertions that he would not run for office again.

However, after Tuesday’s deadline came and went, it was clear that his arguments did not convince his erstwhile coalition partners from the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), which polls put in first place ahead of the ballot. Analysts say the ERC has more to lose than to win from a new alliance with Puigdemont’s center-right Catalan European Democratic Party (PDeCAT). [...]

It’s unclear if a joint separatist platform would increase the parties’ chances in any case. Although the electoral system rewards the concentration of votes, alliances can repel voters as well as attract them. For example, leftist voters may be reluctant to choose a list that includes right-wingers and vice-versa.

A poll by Catalan newspaper La Vanguardia on Saturday placed the ERC first but didn’t guarantee the separatists an absolute majority in the regional assembly. The liberal Ciudadanos and the Catalan Socialists — both parties opposed to the latest independence bid — ranked second and third respectively ahead of Puigdemont’s PDeCAT. Other polls, however, do predict a pro-independence majority as in 2015.

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