UnHerd: Germany’s identity crisis

The standard interpretation of the recent vote is that the entrance of Alternative for Germany, or AfD, into the Bavarian Landtag (legislature) is another example of Germany’s inability to deal with its nationalistic element. In fact, a closer look shows that the real issue is not how to deal with nationalism but how to define it. All sides in the election were propounding their own views about what German nationalism, and its peculiar Bavarian interpretation, is about.[...]

Their sense of nation included acceptance of change and growth, but only against the backdrop of an ethnic German supermajority and a Christian-influenced public morality. Feeling betrayed by the CSU, nearly one in eight Bavarians supported the radically anti-Islamic AfD in last year’s federal vote, with proportions rising in the CSU’s rural, Catholic heartland. [...]

The CSU therefore staved off catastrophic defeat, but only at a great cost. The AfD share of the vote dropped compared with the 2017 Bundestag election in rural regions and small towns, and some of those voters returned to the CSU. The FW, however, also gained some of these voters as they were a safe protest party for those who wanted to send the CSU a message.

In the cities, the CSU defined itself in a way that proved unacceptable to economically conservative but culturally liberal voters who want a Germany that is open to migrants and the world. The SPD’s collapse also showed that the old ways no longer hold; the two parties combined for less than a majority of the vote. The centre held, but just barely.[...]

Meanwhile, the AfD is now the largest party in the former communist East. Combined with the party descended from the former Communists, Die Linke, nearly half of East Germany’s voters support a party of either the far Left or far Right. Thirty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, it seems that East Germany’s politics have more in common with those of their former Warsaw Pact allies, where Right or Left-wing populism is also rising, than of the western part of the nation they now call home.

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CityLab: Weirdly, Munich Is Now Germany’s Greenest City

All of it, in fact. Across the 1.45 million-strong Bavarian capital, an unprecedented 42.5 percent of votes went to the Greens. That’s a very high proportion in Germany’s multiparty system, and a big score for the Greens: They outpolled the Merkel-affiliated CSU by more than two and a half times. It’s also a shock. Starchy and relatively serene Munich is a well-liked city in Germany; its wealth, sub-Alpine setting and old-looking (but often reconstructed) buildings generally earn it higher popularity ratings than gruff, sprawling Berlin. But Munich has a rather conservative, even slightly doughy reputation (though it’s seen as more progressive than its rural hinterland). In short, it’s an unlikely stage for political upheaval.[...]

It didn’t work. The rightward swing has disgusted many, prompting a 20,000-strong demonstration against the police powers bill in Munich earlier this month. Then last Sunday, the party was pummeled at the polls, falling 10.5 percent to 37 percent of all votes across the region, a result that will make it very hard for the party to form a coalition. Meanwhile, the Green Party surged to 17.5 percent of all regional votes (and almost three times that in Munich), almost doubling its representation.[...]

From this murky picture, three clear trends emerge. Firstly, Germans on all sides of the political spectrum seem disenchanted with the main parties that previously dominated national politics. Secondly, the rise of the country’s extreme right—a source of much international concern—is just one of several swings, and it has itself created a revolted counter-reaction. And thirdly and perhaps most encouragingly, high levels of concern about the environment are becoming increasingly bipartisan.

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Bloomberg: German Voters Are Tired of Immigration Politics

Although German states have fewer powers than those in the U.S., state elections are extremely important. They’re where the parties try out electoral platforms, tactics, and alliances, and where national political stars are born. Voters are active: The turnout in Bavaria on Sunday was 72.4 percent, only slightly lower than the 76.2 percent that voted at last year’s national election. [...]

The election proved that Seehofer’s tactics had been a big mistake. With just 10.2 percent of the vote, the AfD did worse than in last year’s national election, when it won 12.4 percent in Bavaria and 12.6 percent nationwide. The CSU lost some 180,000 votes to the nationalist party – but it lost as many to the Greens and almost as many to the Free Voters of Bavaria, another local party with centrist politics and a focus on community affairs. [...]

A moderate stance on immigration and more attention to local affairs and the environment probably would’ve given the CSU a stronger result without undermining the nationwide coalition. As it is, Seehofer in particular comes out of the election weakened, and Merkel must be quietly pleased despite a loss for her allies. Even if Seehofer manages to hold onto the party leader’s job, the idea of fighting the AfD by being more like the AfD is discredited now. The Greens’ compassionate stance on immigration aligned much better with the CSU voters’ values – and with the stance of the Bavarian Catholic Church, for that matter – than Seehofer’s attempts to shove asylum seekers back from Germany’s borders. [...]

One complication for Merkel is that the Social Democratic Party, part of the federal ruling coalition, did terribly in Bavaria. With 9.7 percent of the vote, the once-formidable workers’ party is sinking into irrelevance. Its nationwide polling numbers are dismal: It consistently lags behind the Afd now and is beginning to fall behind the Greens. The latter, with a political program that appeals to millennials and liberal voters in general, have a chance to turn themselves from an environmentally focused party into the biggest center-left force – the slot in the political spectrum that the SPD thought it would own forever. Now the Social Democrats’ string of defeats means they may rethink their participation in the governing coalition; if they do, a new election is likely. Merkel wouldn’t be the conservatives’ uncontested choice to lead the CSU into it.

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The Guardian: Bavaria election: Merkel's conservative allies humiliated

Among the main victors was the environmental, pro-immigration Green party, which as predicted almost doubled its voter share to 17.5% at the expense of the Social Democratic party (SPD), which lost its position as the second-biggest party, with support halving to 9.7%. [...]

The Free Voters, a regional protest party, is also likely to enter parliament, having secured a historic 11.6%. Its leader, Hubert Aiwanger, said shortly after the result that he had called the CSU leadership to start coalition negotiations. [...]

Merkel did not react to the results, but the CDU’s general secretary, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, called them “bitter … but not surprising”, citing the governmental infighting of recent months. She said the party would urgently consult before a state election in Hesse in two weeks’ time. “We need to address the issues which are burning under people’s fingernails,” she added. [...]

But in the weeks running up to the election, successive polls showed the CSU’s hardline stance and its near-success in causing the government’s collapse had prompted a haemorrhaging of voters to other parties.

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UnHerd: Will the Catholics bring down Merkel?

This relationship holds even after controlling for other factors such as education, income, unemployment, and the share of migrants in the region. Alexander Roth of the Bruegel Institut ran such an analysis and found “a positive correlation between Catholic church membership and AfD voting in Bavaria, controlling for numerous other factors”. So we have a curious anomaly: Germany’s most Catholic party, one that recently passed a law mandating that crosses be posted in all government buildings, is losing support among Catholics. [...]

Bavaria’s high number of Catholics almost certainly includes many for whom Catholicism is a cultural heritage rather than something that is a center of their lives. Only about 10% of German Catholics regularly attend mass, according to 2016 figures from the German Bishop’s Conference. These people may, like their American brethren, be afraid of Islam and migrants but be unconnected enough with the Church to pay attention to its stances on “Islamophobia” and migration. [...]

That cultural identity may also combine with isolation from formal institutions to create a warm climate for anti-Islam fears. Data from Germany’s past and America’s present again reinforces that view. The vote share for the Centre Party and the BVP was relatively stable throughout the rise of Nazism: those Catholics close enough to the Church to vote for the Church’s party did not waver despite the Depression’s pressures. So, too, did more nominal Catholics who voted for parties with ties to strong unions such as the Social Democrats or Communists. But those who voted for other parties, presumably those without active membership in strong institutions, switched en masse.

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Politico: The man who lost Bavaria

Barring a minor miracle, Söder’s Christian Social Union, which has dominated Bavarian politics for decades, will suffer an epic thrashing in state elections on Sunday. Recent polls put the CSU at just 33 percent, nearly one-third below where it finished five years ago. [...]

There’s some truth to Söder’s argument that the CSU’s troubles reflect the reality of the age of populism, in which old standards for measuring political success and failure no longer apply. But that’s only part of the story. More than anything, Bavaria’s politics have been upended by a groundswell of popular dismay over the party’s handling of the migration crisis. [...]

At the same time, the CSU’s aggressive rhetoric on migration has disenchanted its liberal supporters, many of whom have fled to the Greens. The latest polls put the AfD, which is running in its first Bavarian election, as high as 14 percent, while the Greens are expected to finish second with 18 percent, more than double their last showing. [...]

Given that the CSU’s sway on the national stage rests solely on its strength at home, a drop of support for it in Bavaria could make the party, already a difficult partner, even more unpredictable. For decades, the CSU has sold itself at home by arguing that it alone can ensure Bavaria can influence national politics, a claim the migration crisis has shown to be exaggerated. [...]

While there’s no doubt that Seehofer — whose clashes with Merkel over migration this summer nearly brought down the government — bears much of the blame for the CSU’s image problem, whether Söder can survive is another question. His biggest selling point may be that most Bavarians can’t think of a better alternative.

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Deutsche Welle: Germany: Thousands gather in Munich to protest Bavarian ruling party CSU

The demonstration follows a large protest in the Bavarian capital on May 5, where at least 30,000 people filled Odeonplatz square to express their rejection of a controversial legislative package put forth by the CSU that sought to widen police powers.

Officials put the attendance of Sunday's anti-CSU rally at 15,000, with organizers saying that 18,000 showed up, despite the unrelenting rain in Munich. Protesters singled out CSU leaders Horst Seehofer and Markus Söder as instigators of an "irresponsible politics of division" at the national and regional levels respectively. Demonstrators also spoke out against CSU parliamentary party leader Alexander Dobrindt.

Organizers of the rally wanted to emphasize that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was not the only political organization that in their eyes promotes a politics of "exclusion and hate." Protesters were called on by organizers to put the spotlight on "a massive societal shift to the right, the surveillance state, [and] the restriction of freedoms and attacks on human rights" that they see as inherent to CSU policies.

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Spiegel: Suicide Casts Doubts On German Deportation Policies

The German government has always assured that deported Afghans would be supported by the German Embassy when they made a fresh start back in their home country. But as so often happens, a terror warning was in place on the day of their arrival, and no diplomat made it to the airport. Instead, employees of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and a German police officer were there to receive the returnees. [...]

Seehofer has irritated friends and foes alike with his refugee policy spectacle in recent weeks -- one that came close to bringing down Merkel's government and ending his own political career. His appearance last Tuesday served only to strengthen opponents who have been calling for his resignation. "The line between showing toughness and being downright cynical is no longer blurred for Seehofer -- it's simply gone," says Omid Nouripour, a member of parliament with the Green Party. When he talks about migration policy, Seehofer is fond of boasting about deportation and repatriation statistics. The Mahmodi case now makes clear that there's a personal story behind every deportation, even if Mahmodi isn't exactly an innocent victim. [...]

One thing is certain, though: Interior Minister Seehofer, in particular, wanted to set an example by deporting large numbers of Afghans. Following the attack on the German Embassy in Kabul in May 2017, the German government temporarily refrained from deporting people to Afghanistan, but it resumed the practice last fall.

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Jacobin Magazine: Germany’s Governmental Crisis

In this sense, everything is at stake, as the party’s strength is increasingly challenged from the right by the Alternative for Germany (AfD), whose positions and members run the gamut from right-wing populist to outright fascist. Why, indeed, should anti-immigration voters support the CSU when a louder law-and-order, anti-immigration party is available?

For this same reason, leading figures in the CSU are practically competing with one another to prove who is more authoritarian, as Bavarian minister president Markus Söder mandates crucifixes in all public buildings and introduces a draconian new police law that has been widely criticized from various sectors of civil society.

After initial hesitation, the Social Democrats also agreed, after removing some of the agreement’s most draconian wording. Germany, it seems, will close itself off and build refugee camps. Austrian chancellor Kurz responded by announcing his intention to better “protect” Austria’s southern border — thereby shifting the border even further south and leaving it up to Matteo Salvini to decide what will happen to refugees in the Mediterranean. [...]

After all, the “migration question,” which she has styled the “question of the fate the European Union”, is really a question of the EU and its economic strength in global competition. Will multilateralism continue to prevail, or are we witnessing a return to unilateralism and strong nation-states? Katrin Göring-Eckardt of the Greens sounded quite similar to Nahles and Merkel when she observed that if the “end of multilateralism” is up for discussion, then “everything is at stake.” [...]

For the CSU, all that matters is Bavaria. The party, appealing to Bavaria’s Texas-like self-image as a culturally unique and independent state in Germany, does not contest elections anywhere else and is generally to the right of the CDU. In order to save its own regional skin, it may at some point prove more opportune to cut loose from the CDU and focus on maintaining its hegemony over Bavaria, leaving Merkel to govern with other mainstream parties or call snap elections.

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Spiegel: Inside the Battle that Almost Brought Down Merkel

Perhaps it made sense. It may even have been the only bit of honesty seen in Berlin during these crazy days of dispute. How, after all, should the two find their way back to each other after the depth of their feud? Seehofer is obsessed with Angela Merkel, and he won't back down until she is no longer there. Indeed, it might have been better were both of them to step down and clear the way for a new political era. The current partnership between the CSU and CDU, in any case, isn't likely to work for as long as Merkel and Seehofer have to find agreement on all the important issues. It isn't likely to work for as long as the two are chained together like an unhappy married couple.

Merkel has retained the ability to keep her cool, concealing her fury behind her political authority - such as when, in her first speech in parliament following her most recent reelection, she indirectly admonished Seehofer for his assertion that Islam does not belong to Germany. Seehofer sat there on the cabinet benches looking like a sheepish schoolboy. [...]

Yet despite frequently being at loggerheads, Kohl and Strauss ultimately pursued the same brand of conservatism. Merkel and Seehofer, by contrast, aren't just divided by a long history of indignities inflicted on each other - a history which has made it almost impossible for the pair to hold open, face-to-face discussions - but they also pursue two completely different political strategies. That is what has made the situation so difficult. [...]

Initially, only Seehofer supporters take the floor, encouraging him to remain steadfast. Several CSU members of the federal parliament argue in favor of a vote among CSU lawmakers, a group which doesn't always support Seehofer's style, but do support his positions. Only toward the end of the debate do critics of Seehofer's confrontational strategy take the floor. Former party head Erwin Huber issues a reminder of the responsibility the CSU bears while Development Minister Gerd Müller warns that if things go badly, the CSU could end up being merely a meaningless regional party. Deputy party head Manfred Weber praises Merkel's accomplishments on the European stage.

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Deutsche Welle: Opinion: Angela Merkel finds salvage in Fortress Europe

These last two weeks have been about far more than determining the chancellor's fate. They have been a bitter struggle over the fundamental direction of European refugee policy. And the forces that have been backing closure of the borders have won. These are politicians who want to prevent people from making the life-threatening journey across the Mediterranean in the first place.  [...]

This puts an end to the acute crisis. However, no real answer to the challenges has been found — let's not kid ourselves. After all, in which North African countries should the reception camps be built? The reactions so far have been predominantly hostile. And with which countries can you do business if you want to preserve human rights at the very minimum? And who will take care of refugees if they are prevented from moving on? The latest pictures from Algeria show what can happen. Thousands were literally sent to the desert, including children and pregnant women, where at almost 50 degrees Celsius (122 Fahrenheit) in the shade they died miserably, of thirst and starvation. Countries like Lebanon are already taking in more refugees than the whole of Europe put together. This is also part of the truth of a European policy of isolation.

There are also currently more questions than answers within Europe. Here, too, it is uncertain in which country camps are to be built. Which governments are really prepared, in the end, to lighten the burden carried by Italy and Greece, those countries with the longest external borders and, correspondingly, the highest number of refugee arrivals? This quick agreement between the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) was only possible because everything remained vague. The only thing that can be implemented quickly is to strengthen border management. There are lucrative times ahead for the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, Frontex, and for fence-building companies.

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Spiegel: The End of German Politics As We Know It

The drama that unfolded in Germany as the weekend came to a close was nothing short of a farce. Seehofer, who is the head of the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister party to the Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), set a new standard of childishness for German party leaders. Why would he announce his resignation only to reverse course a short time later the way he did?   [...]

That is now history. Seehofer has allowed the dispute over the rejection of asylum-seekers in Germany to escalate to such a degree that the government now faces a real risk of collapse. It's not even a question of the practical effects that step might have, which would likely be minimal. Seehofer is insisting on imposing permanent controls on three German border crossings. He wants to send a message. But what? [...]

Regardless what happens now, there are no longer any true prospects for Seehofer, the CSU or its power-sharing agreement with the CDU. The CDU has made clear in rare unanimity that it will not allow itself to be blackmailed by its sister party. And it's highly unlikely Seehofer can expect any substantial concessions from the chancellor. Whether he remains in office or leaves it, he has lost any credibility he had. Since Sunday, the head of the CSU party has joined the ranks of the political undead. [...]

The party that has emerged as the primary beneficiary from all this is the Alternative for Germany (AfD). There's no better gift the CDU and CSU could give the right-wing populists than to tear each other apart over refugee policy. The CSU's hope of pushing back competition from the right in Bavarian state elections in September has been shattered. The CSU had hoped to become AfD's gravedigger, but there's no chance of that now. Instead, the CSU has become one of the nascent political party's biggest helpers.

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Social Europe: Power Is Draining Away From Angela Merkel

An unprecedented seven parties entered the Bundestag after the September 2017 election. Alongside Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), her Bavarian allies the CSU, and the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the four smaller parties were the leftist Die Linke, the liberal Free Democrats (FDP), the Greens and the right wing AfD. Before the election, the CDU/CSU and the SPD held 80% of the seats in the Bundestag, with the Greens and Die Linke holding the rest. What this means is that the executive was strong and the legislature was weak. The 2017 election changed the German political landscape. [...]

The right wing of the CDU cannot forgive Merkel for moving the once conservative CDU so far in a liberal-social democratic direction. Conservatives have been grumbling for a long time, and are thinking about an end to the Merkel era. Merkel’s CDU has lost more influence in the new government than it has gained. [...]

The CSU is frustrated with Merkel’s course on migration and feeling the pressure from the right wing, namely the AfD. Even outside of Bavaria, many Germans don’t trust Merkel to fix the refugee system. A recent poll showed 53 percent say Merkel hasn’t managed the refugee influx well. Meanwhile, a poll in Stern magazine showed that about two-thirds of Germans agree with the CSU’s position on turning away refugees at the border.

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Politico: Angela rises from the ashes

For the Bavarians, the spat was always more about Merkel than refugees anyway. The past week offered the CSU leadership a chance to test Merkel’s support in the CDU. On that score, she emerged the clear winner. Any illusions the CSU may have had that the CDU would abandon Merkel in the heat of the moment have evaporated.

The crucial moment came on Thursday, when the two parties’ parliamentary groups, who normally meet together, convened separately to discuss the crisis. Dozens of CDU MPs, even some who disagree with Merkel’s migration policies, stood up to support her leadership. Within the CDU’s executive committee, only Health Minister Jens Spahn, Merkel’s most vocal internal critic, voiced opposition to her course.   [...]

In the event of a divorce, however, the CDU would almost certainly make a run for Bavaria — which it never does, out of respect for the union — thus diluting the CSU’s position just as it’s trying to fend off the far-right Alternative for Germany. In fact, it was concern over its tepid poll numbers ahead of an October state election that has likely prompted the CSU to challenge Merkel head on. [...]

A central fallacy of Seehofer’s plan is that Germany couldn’t actually turn refugees back at the border. In almost all cases, this would entail pushing them back over Germany’s 800-kilometer border with Austria, the last country most refugees pass through before arriving in Germany. Because Germany’s border infrastructure is located inside German territory — not on the border as was the case before the Schengen agreement for freedom of movement took effect — it’s not possible to simply turn people away before they enter the country.

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Politico: Bavaria’s man in Berlin pushes Merkel to brink

By threatening to implement his plan even without Merkel’s approval, he risks forcing the veteran chancellor to fire him — a move that would likely bring down the government and mean the end of both their careers.

It would probably also spell the end of a decades-long alliance between Seehofer’s Christian Social Union (CSU), which campaigns only in Bavaria, and Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which runs for elections in the rest of Germany.  [...]

Seehofer has made no bones about where his loyalties lie, even after bowing to party pressure to give up the state premiership. At a CSU convention in Nuremberg last December, he quoted Franz Josef Strauß, his legendary predecessor, saying “Bavaria is our home, Germany our fatherland and Europe our future.” But he also made a key clarification: “For us, Bavaria will always be first.” [...]

Polls suggest the CSU could lose its absolute majority in the state parliament in a replay of its general election disaster from last September, when Merkel’s conservative bloc suffered its worst result since 1949 and hemorrhaged votes to the AfD.

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The Guardian: Can Catholic crosses keep the far right at bay in multicultural Bavaria?

But Bavaria is different. Different from the rest of Germany, and from the ex-Communist countries to its east and south-east. It is the only German state to have been ruled by one party – the Christian Social Union (CSU) – since the Federal Republic was founded in 1949. The CSU has an agreement with the Christian Democrats (CDU) not to poach on one another’s turf. This has allowed the CSU to pander to Bavaria’s rural and conservative population in a way that the more inclusive CDU could never dare. At the same time, the business-friendly CSU has transformed Bavaria from an agricultural poorhouse into an industrial powerhouse – think BMW and Audi, Siemens and Bosch, biotech, AI and financial services. “Laptop and lederhosen” is how the Bavarians – who enjoy Germany’s lowest unemployment rate and highest incomes – describe the CSU’s mix of folksy populism and determined modernisation. [...]

He could be wrong. Under Pope Francis, the Vatican is no longer the conservative bastion it was under John Paul II and the Bavarian Benedict XVI. Cardinal Reinhard Marx, archbishop of Munich, who heads the Conference of German Bishops, has criticised Söder for trying to instrumentalise a religious symbol for political aims. More to the point, Bavaria’s modernisation has meant that the once backward and priest-ridden society is now better educated, and that Catholics, though still the majority, are more independent of the church. Few Catholic voters will be swayed by church leaders who condemn the AfD, still less politicians who hang up crosses in job centres.

Meanwhile, Bavaria is becoming ever more multicultural. Almost a quarter of the population have what Germans call “a migration background”. And for the first time since the war, more people are leaving Bavaria for other parts of Germany than the other way around. The most popular destination for Bavarians is Berlin – the epitome of decadence and religious indifference, not to mention multiculturalism and everything Bavaria is not supposed to be. Trying to bridge the chasm between a globalist, liberal elite and the rising number of the disaffected and disenchanted, Söder is more to be pitied than censured for his crucifix gambit.

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Spiegel: Religious Symbols Take Center Stage

But now, that insulation appears to be crumbling. And religion, something that had long since seemed to have lost its importance in Germany, is at the forefront. Once again, religions are playing a powerful role in the world - and it is a development that is making itself felt in even the most bucolic of German neighborhoods.

The result is that any discussion about the Germany of today must necessarily consider the kippah, the cross and the headscarf. They are all symbols of religion at first glance, but upon deeper reflection, they are also symbols of this country's identity. Or at least its search for identity. [...]

The murder of Europe's Jews was the ultimate taboo. Those who question this taboo fall outside the scope of what is acceptable to society. This also applies to the country's right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. When Björn Höcke, the head of the AfD state chapter in Thuringia, said in January 2017 that the Holocaust memorial in Berlin was a "monument of shame" and encouraged Germans to focus less on their war guilt, it caused lasting damage to his stature within the party.

But can we demand that immigrants from foreign countries also adopt this significant element of Germany's cultural identity? What connection, after all, does the father of a Muslim immigrant family in Germany have to the Holocaust? Why should he send his children on a trip to visit the Auschwitz concentration camp? To most of the 5 million Muslims living in Germany, the Holocaust is a crime that was committed by others. [...]

The historic year of 1968 could never have come about without all of the historic years that preceded it: the years 1933 and 1945, the Nazi crimes and the Holocaust. Those who speak of the Judeo-Christian culture today cannot credibly do so without explicitly acknowledging the anti-Semitic pogroms and slaughter of the Jews over the course of centuries. Indeed, those who speak of Europe's Judeo-Christian tradition do so because excluding Judaism from the history of European civilization, particularly since Auschwitz, is simply unacceptable.  

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Political Critique: Germany’s Populist Temptation

In a March interview with the tabloid Bild, Seehofer declared, in perfect populist fashion, that, “Islam does not belong to Germany.” The purpose of such statements is to draw lines within the government and place himself on the side of the anti-immigrant voters who turned out for the AfD last year. Merkel, together with almost all of Germany’s political class, has had no choice but to push back. At the same time, the AfD has lost political ground on which to criticize Seehofer and the CSU. [...]

But, again, Seehofer’s “Eastern European” behavior does not come as a total surprise. In March 2017, while Merkel was preparing for her first meeting with US President Donald Trump, Seehofer went to Moscow to cozy up to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Since then, he has consistently opposed all sanctions on Russia on any grounds. [...]

Still, even if Seehofer’s populist gambit fails, he has already succeeded in pulling the government to the right. Germany is clearly acting to ease EU pressure on Poland, Hungary, and other Eastern European countries that are flouting the rule of law and undermining European solidarity with respect to migrants and refugees. [...]

The fact that Seehofer is embracing his inner populist does not necessarily augur what Dobrindt has described as a European “conservative revolution.” But it does suggest that Orbán and PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński’s “illiberal counterrevolution” is gaining momentum.

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Deutsche Welle: Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel meeting a test for EU financial policy

Judging by what individual representatives of the CDU, its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the SPD have said so far about Macron's reform ideas, the grand coalition partners have indeed taken different positions. Until now, Scholz has held back because he knows that within Germany he is expected to continue the solid (some say, stingy) financial policy of his CDU predecessor Wolfgang Schäuble.

However, other SPD politicians have been extremely enthusiastic about Macron's ideas. Former SPD leader Martin Schulz — who also previously served as European Parliament president — had made a positive German response to Macron's ideas a prerequisite for a new grand coalition. As recently as Wednesday, new top diplomat Maas said in Paris that he had come to "finally take the outstretched hand of Emmanuel Macron with his proposals for the renewal of Europe." [...]

However, according to Caspary, the differences in opinion do not change the common goal of strengthening the European Union. A few days ago, Merkel complained that Europe was "too weak and too slow" in many areas. She wants to change that. She agrees with Macron that without him, without France, this is not possible. "I don't believe for a second that a European project can be successful without, or against Germany," Macron told the German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. "We are completely interdependent."

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Politico: Angela Merkel’s ticking Bavarian time bomb

But the Bavarians have an election for the state assembly coming next fall, which ultimately matters more to them than national politics. For that campaign, CSU leaders are convinced the party has to reassert its die-hard conservative credentials — just as Merkel will be trying to establish and lead a coalition with the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) in Berlin, which will inevitably mean tacking to the center.

CSU officials worry such a course at the national level could harm their new champion, Markus Söder, who will take over from Seehofer as Bavarian state premier early next year and lead the campaign to defend the party’s absolute majority in the state assembly. [...]

At the party conference, Söder, who is currently Bavaria’s finance minister, gave a foretaste of his campaign, taking aim at left-leaning newspapers and “champagne drinkers,” and striking a tone that seemed designed to win back voters from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).  “Our world is occidental-Christian, Jewish-humanistic,” he declared.

“Islam has not made an outstanding contribution to Bavaria in the last 200 years and now we have to be clear about the roots of our own land.”

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