Barring a minor miracle, Söder’s Christian Social Union, which has dominated Bavarian politics for decades, will suffer an epic thrashing in state elections on Sunday. Recent polls put the CSU at just 33 percent, nearly one-third below where it finished five years ago. [...]
There’s some truth to Söder’s argument that the CSU’s troubles reflect the reality of the age of populism, in which old standards for measuring political success and failure no longer apply. But that’s only part of the story. More than anything, Bavaria’s politics have been upended by a groundswell of popular dismay over the party’s handling of the migration crisis. [...]
At the same time, the CSU’s aggressive rhetoric on migration has disenchanted its liberal supporters, many of whom have fled to the Greens. The latest polls put the AfD, which is running in its first Bavarian election, as high as 14 percent, while the Greens are expected to finish second with 18 percent, more than double their last showing. [...]
Given that the CSU’s sway on the national stage rests solely on its strength at home, a drop of support for it in Bavaria could make the party, already a difficult partner, even more unpredictable. For decades, the CSU has sold itself at home by arguing that it alone can ensure Bavaria can influence national politics, a claim the migration crisis has shown to be exaggerated. [...]
While there’s no doubt that Seehofer — whose clashes with Merkel over migration this summer nearly brought down the government — bears much of the blame for the CSU’s image problem, whether Söder can survive is another question. His biggest selling point may be that most Bavarians can’t think of a better alternative.
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