For the Bavarians, the spat was always more about Merkel than refugees anyway. The past week offered the CSU leadership a chance to test Merkel’s support in the CDU. On that score, she emerged the clear winner. Any illusions the CSU may have had that the CDU would abandon Merkel in the heat of the moment have evaporated.
The crucial moment came on Thursday, when the two parties’ parliamentary groups, who normally meet together, convened separately to discuss the crisis. Dozens of CDU MPs, even some who disagree with Merkel’s migration policies, stood up to support her leadership. Within the CDU’s executive committee, only Health Minister Jens Spahn, Merkel’s most vocal internal critic, voiced opposition to her course. [...]
In the event of a divorce, however, the CDU would almost certainly make a run for Bavaria — which it never does, out of respect for the union — thus diluting the CSU’s position just as it’s trying to fend off the far-right Alternative for Germany. In fact, it was concern over its tepid poll numbers ahead of an October state election that has likely prompted the CSU to challenge Merkel head on. [...]
A central fallacy of Seehofer’s plan is that Germany couldn’t actually turn refugees back at the border. In almost all cases, this would entail pushing them back over Germany’s 800-kilometer border with Austria, the last country most refugees pass through before arriving in Germany. Because Germany’s border infrastructure is located inside German territory — not on the border as was the case before the Schengen agreement for freedom of movement took effect — it’s not possible to simply turn people away before they enter the country.
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