openDemocracy: The Trump wars era

The total figure alone is much higher than previous numbers. But by itself it is misleading in that the United States defense department normally excludes two further categories of troops: those rotating for short periods and, of far greater significance, many of the special forces. These are waging much of the combat in all three theatres – Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. That means the true number is probably close to, or even over, 30,000. To this could be added troops involved in operations across the Sahel, Somalia or Yemen.  

Such indicators give only part of the picture. Another is a Pentagon request for $143 million to expand its operations at the Azraq base in the Jordanian desert, the largest single overseas financial commitment now being considered. This base has been key to operations in Syria and Iraq, and been used by other states including the Netherlands and Belgium. So just as the wars in Iraq and Syria are supposed to be winding down after ISIS's much-vaunted defeat, the Pentagon wants to go the other way and prepare for yet more conflict in the region. A growth in overseas bases, such as a huge one for surveillance drones costing $100 million in Niger, fits the trend.

All this must be seen in the perspective of the sixteeen years of "war on terror". Again, troop numbers are a signal if not the whole story. In 2007-08, at the height of George W Bush’s campaigns, close to 200,000 US troops were in Iraq and Afghanistan. Even as Barack Obama started to withdraw troops from Iraq, he was "surging" them in Afghanistan: an extra 30,000 troops by 2011 took the US total in that country to around 100,000. [...]

Now, the Trump wars era brings a reconfiguration: plenty of remote warfare and far more military personnel abroad. Bush was all about crushing al-Qaida and similar groups, as well as regime termination; Obama moved more towards "shadow wars" at a much lower intensity, if still controversial. Trump, in combining these, is going back to the future.

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Foreign Policy: Tehran Is Winning the War for Control of the Middle East

Iran also enjoys political preeminence in Baghdad. The ruling Islamic Dawa Party is traditionally pro-Iranian, while the Badr Organization controls the powerful interior ministry, which has allowed it to blur the boundaries between the official armed forces and its militias — thus allowing rebranded militiamen to benefit from U.S. training and equipment. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has been left playing catch up: Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi visited Riyadh in late October to launch the new Saudi-Iraqi Coordination Council, the first time an Iraqi premier had made the trip in a quarter-century. But it is not clear that the Saudis have much more up their sleeve than financial inducements to potential political allies. [...]

In each context, Iran has been able to establish proxies that give it political and military influence in the country. Tehran also has successfully identified and exploited seams in their enemy’s camp. For example, Tehran acted swiftly to nullify the results of the Kurdish independence referendum in September and then to punish the Kurds for proceeding with it. The Iranians were able to use their long-standing connection to the Talabani family, and the Talabanis’ rivalry with the Barzanis, to orchestrate the retreat of Talabani-aligned Peshmerga forces from Kirkuk in October — thus paving the way for the city and nearby oil reserves to be captured by its allies. [...]

It’s impossible to say the extent to which Washington and Jerusalem are on board with such an effort. However, the statements last week by Defense Secretary James Mattis suggesting that the United States intends to stay in eastern Syria, and by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel will continue to enforce its security interests in Syria, suggest that these players may have a role to play. [...]

Past Saudi behavior might encourage skepticism. Nevertheless, the Iranians here have a clearly visible Achilles’ heel. In all the countries where the Saudi-Iran rivalry has played out, Tehran has proved to have severe difficulties in developing lasting alliances outside of Shiite and other minority communities. Sunnis, and Sunni Arabs in particular, do not trust the Iranians and do not want to work with them. Elements of the Iraqi Shiite political class also have no interest of falling under the thumb of Tehran. A cunning player looking to sponsor proxies and undermine Iranian influence would find much to work with — it’s just not clear that the Saudis are that player.

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Al Jazeera: What is behind Sudan's 'rapprochement' with Russia?

In an exclusive interview with the Russian news agency Sputnik, Bashir blamed the US for the secession of South Sudan in 2011, and claimed that Washington was now planning to split the rest of Sudan into five countries. Bashir also told Sputnik that he discussed the establishment of military bases on the Red Sea coast with President Putin and his defence minister. He also revealed that he was interested in purchasing Russia's S-300 air defence system as well as Su-30 and Su-35 jets. [...]

Bashir may have initially assumed that US President Donald Trump, who appears to have little interest in human rights and democracy, would help him to escape the ICC charges and allow him to run for office in the 2020 elections, in return for cooperation on issues such as counterterrorism efforts. [...]

Bashir was further disappointed when John Sullivan, the US Deputy Secretary of State did not meet him in person during his visit to Sudan in mid-November. Moreover, Sullivan indicated that Washington would expect the regime to accept far-reaching reforms, including the repealing of the apostasy punishment, and improvements in its human rights record in return for removal from the list of state sponsors of terrorism. [...]

Bashir is said to be disappointed that he has not received the financial rewards he thought he would from his Gulf allies after moving quickly to cut diplomatic ties with Iran in early 2016, and sending thousands of Sudanese soldiers to fight with the Saudi-led coalition against the Houthis in Yemen. Bashir previously signalled his dissatisfaction with Riyadh when he refused to back the Saudi-led blockade against Qatar. So far, Sudan has tried to remain neutral in the ongoing crisis and has claimed to be supporting Kuwaiti attempts to mediate. [...]

Some observers, on the other hand, think that Bashir's recent rapprochement with the Russian-Iranian axis is nothing more than a tactical manoeuvre to blackmail the US and Saudi Arabia into providing political and financial support to his presidency. It is indeed possible that he is using the Russian-Iranian card merely as a way to pressure the US to support his regime and his Gulf allies to loosen their purse strings. If so, it is certainly a very high-risk gamble. His offer of a Red Sea military base to the Russians will certainly not be well received in Washington.

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Politico: Dutch prime minister says more EU integration ‘not the answer’

The Dutch prime minister — who was speaking at the annual congress of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) — did not name Macron in the speech but at one point indicated his skepticism for the idea of “democratic conventions” that was “coming from France.”

Taken together, the speech is a strong rebuff to Macron’s ambitious and detailed reform agenda, which includes a wide range of policies from introducing a new class of transnational MEPs to the creation of a common budget for the Eurozone. [...]

Rutte, who is a liberal like Macron, added that pushing for more European integration cannot be a goal in itself. “Integration for integration’s sake will only harm public support for the European Union. So before we develop new policy, before we set up new agencies, before we think up new rules and regulations, we need to ask ourselves: what problem does this truly solve?” [...]

Rutte also took a sideswipe at the EU’s conservative European People’s Party. He said he didn’t understand why the party of Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán was still a member of the mainstream political grouping despite his populist policies. “Why is he still a member of the EPP?,” Rutte asked, adding that it was strange that Orban participated in pre-summit meetings with his EPP colleagues.

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Politico: Emmanuel Macron, anti-European

Among other strikes, they cite the following French-led moves as going against the spirit of the single market: an overhaul of posted worker rules; France’s temporary nationalization of shipyards; its embrace of geographic indicators for dairy products; and plans to allow limited price fixing for agricultural products. [...]

And while Macron has reaped praise for his ambitious approach to Europe — calling for a shared European “strategic culture” — when it comes to trade and the single market, time after time, the French President has taken measures his critics describe as erecting barriers and favoring French interests. [...]

Selimovic, the Swedish liberal, said he understood Macron’s intentions, and could see that the approach is bearing results. But he worried that by the time the French president is finished, there would be little left of the single market as it existed in the early 2000s.

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