Al Jazeera: Cuba's economic future after the Castros

"What we can expect from Miguel Diaz-Canel is policy continuity and gradual economic reform, but no democratic political opening or Cuba's moving towards a more pluralistic political system," explains Diego Moya-Ocampos, a senior analyst at IHS Markit.

In general terms, "Canel is Raul Castro's boy, and change will continue being steered by Raul Castro, who'll remain the head of the Communist Party ... Canel will try to enable change in a way that it will not let the old Castro revolutionary guards or military establishment feel uncomfortable.

"The military and security apparatus play a key role behind the scenes, controlling the economy and any gradual opening of the economy will have to be done at the pace at which it will not increase the hopes or the expectations of the local population", says Moya-Ocampos.

read the article and watch the video

Quartz: What will Cuba’s revolution look like without a Castro in charge?

The National Assembly on Thursday confirmed the only candidate for the post, Miguel Díaz-Canel, the country’s first vice president and a Communist Party loyalist. He replaces Raúl Castro, who took over the country’s leadership from his brother Fidel in 2006. [...]

Still, in many ways, Cuba’s presidential transition is far from revolutionary. It’s part of the periodic updating the Castro brothers have carried out to maintain Cuba’s socialist regime, whether it be by opening up the economy or dialing back state repression. Like his predecessors, Cuba’s new president will have to rejigger the definition of the Castro revolution to handle the island’s economic and political reality—currently in a precarious state. [...]

The latest iteration of the revolution, as shaped by Raúl, is still in dire need of revision, observers point out. It remains hobbled by its two-currency system—one for locals, another pegged to the dollar for tourists and international business—that stalls economic growth. Cuba must also deal with the collapse of Venezuela, which it relied upon for cheap oil.

read the article