"What we can expect from Miguel Diaz-Canel is policy continuity and gradual economic reform, but no democratic political opening or Cuba's moving towards a more pluralistic political system," explains Diego Moya-Ocampos, a senior analyst at IHS Markit.
In general terms, "Canel is Raul Castro's boy, and change will continue being steered by Raul Castro, who'll remain the head of the Communist Party ... Canel will try to enable change in a way that it will not let the old Castro revolutionary guards or military establishment feel uncomfortable.
"The military and security apparatus play a key role behind the scenes, controlling the economy and any gradual opening of the economy will have to be done at the pace at which it will not increase the hopes or the expectations of the local population", says Moya-Ocampos.
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