30 January 2018

The Conversation: Macron’s pledge to wipe out coal is just as meaningless as Trump’s plan to revive it

Its data show that in 2006 about 10 percent of all electric power plants—616 in total—ran on coal. By 2016, the latest year for which data are available, that figure dropped to just 4 percent, or 381 coal-fired power plants. That compares with 1,801 natural gas plants and 3,624 “other renewables” such as wind, up from 1,659 and 843 in 2006, respectively.

In other words, slightly more than 20 coal plants are shutting down each year on average. If the trend continues at the same rate, then most coal-fired power plants will be closed in the US within 18 years, or around 2035. A few will likely remain, since utilities close the oldest, least efficient plants first, but the trend is clear. [...]

No matter what they say in speeches, however, economic forces will inevitably dictate whether reality can match their words. And for now, the economics of the power generation business suggest coal’s days are numbered, and the world’s power generation will continue to shift to other sources.

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