3 July 2017

Business Insider: Here's what it would take for Theresa May's majority to collapse

One Tory MP has become a deputy speaker, alongside two Labour MPs, depriving their respective parties of their votes. The Speaker of the House, John Bercow, also does not vote.

The seven Sinn Fein MPs who were voted in do not take their seats in Westminster by convention, as they refuse to swear an oath to the Queen due to their staunch republican beliefs.

This makes the task for the minority government slightly easier, as Sinn Fein would almost certainly voted against the Tories on a number of issues. [...]

Between 1992 and 1997 the Tory government under John Major suffered a net loss of eight seats through by-elections. This would be enough to give opposition parties a majority if replicated during this parliament.

In four out of the 19 parliaments since the Second World War governing parties have lost seven or more seats. In the period from 1966 to 1970 the Labour government had a net loss of 15 seats due to 20 sitting MPs dying, although this is extremely unlikely to happen this time around.

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