Mélenchon has campaigned on leftist populist themes, giving vent to “the rage” of the people against the rich and calling for a “citizens’ insurrection” against France’s globalized elite. His platform is based on more taxes for the well-to-do, massive public spending, and a promise to push for a major overhaul of the European Union’s founding treaties, with the threat of leaving the EU if he doesn’t get his way. There’s little to no chance other EU governments would agree to his demands, which would make a French exit from the union more than likely.
The big question is whether increased attacks on his character and scrutiny of his platform will stop his rise in the polls. His suggestion that France should join the so-called “Bolivarian alliance”, an economic treaty between Cuba and Venezuela with Iran, Syria and Russia as “observers,” could give pause to socialist voters who are considering backing Mélenchon because they consider Macron too centrist for their tastes. [...]
It is possible. The National Front leader has fallen from around 28 percent of the vote in early February to about 21 to 22 percent now. She was considered two months ago the favorite in the first round by a comfortable margin. But she is now threatened by both Mélenchon and Fillon, the conservative candidate who has proved surprisingly resilient in the face of multiple scandals. Mélenchon is picking up votes from Le Pen, but her main threat is Fillon, who has based his campaign on hard-right themes, notably on social issues, which appeal to core National Front voters. According to the daily IFOP survey, both Mélenchon and Fillon are still 3 percentage points behind Le Pen, but there is still time for many undecided voters to make up (or change) their minds. [...]
Macron is trying to compensate for the youthful, at times amateurish, nature of his presidential run — he has never appointed a campaign manager — with increased energy. He filled the Zenith, Paris’ largest arena, with 20,000 people for a rally Monday night and is planning to campaign non-stop this week, culminating with three rallies on the same day in his home region of Picardie on Friday. He remains vulnerable to a self-inflicted injury, such as a major gaffe, but has sounded more disciplined in recent days as the race tightens.
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