The M5S – founded by the comedian Beppe Grillo – and his digital guru, Gianroberto Casaleggio, only four years earlier – scooped a quarter of the votes. And since Grillo refused to negotiate with the established parties, which he regards as irredeemably corrupt, the result was stalemate.
Had it not been for a deal between left and right, Italy would have become as deadlocked as Spain since its general election in December, and for a not dissimilar reason: the success of new political movements outside the mainstream. So the grand plan – though only voiced privately – was to nobble the M5S by introducing a new electoral law and a constitutional reform.
The latter would ensure only one of Italy’s two houses of parliament would have any real clout and, at the next general election, the party that topped the poll would get an outright majority of its seats. That party’s leader, which Renzi has always assumed would be himself, would thus enjoy a full, five-year term in office. What is more, because of the new electoral law which means lawmakers will continue to be accountable to their party leaders rather than their constituents, his new government could expect to be untroubled by party revolts. [...]
The latest poll shows the M5S running a mere 0.4% behind the PD. What if Renzi were to win the referendum, install a winner-takes-all system, but then lose the general election that is expected to be called shortly afterwards?
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