Trump took his first lead in the primary on July 14, which was 29 days into his campaign. At the same point in the general election (May 31), he had already given up his lead to Clinton. By Day 49 into the primaries, Trump was up 10.1 percentage points over his nearest competitor, compared with being down 6 percentage points now. That’s a 16.1 percentage point difference in standing.
Trump, who once claimed that he personally made polls “a very important thing,” can’t be unaware that the polls have now turned against him. Whatever Trump was doing in the primary has not been working in the general election. The decline became too obvious to ignore, and at the same moment, Trump decided Lewandowski had to go. [...]
Still, my guess is that Lewandowski was a symptom and not the cause of Trump’s campaign problems. For example, Lewandowski wasn’t the one who, day after day, was attacking Judge Gonzalo Curiel based on his ethnic background which drew widespread criticism from leaders in Trump’s own party. Trump is still Trump, President Obama is fairly popular and the economy is about average. Right now, Trump is losing, and he has a tough road ahead to reverse that with or without Lewandowski.
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