22 March 2017

Vox: A political scientist explains how big data is transforming politics

Big data — defined by Todd and Dann as a “combination of massive technological power and endlessly detailed voter information” — has certainly changed the way campaigns are conducted. Like corporations, campaigns now know far more about their constituents than ever before — what they read, which movies they stream, which shows they watch, where they shop, which products they buy.

This allows campaigns to identify their most likely voters and target them with ads and favorable content. The result, increasingly, is that candidates talk only to voters disposed to agree with them, as opposed to persuading those who don’t.

In the end, Todd and Dann write, mobilizing likely supporters is “faster and far less expensive than persuading their neighbors.” So that’s what campaigns do: ignore the center and concentrate on the most fervent supporters. [...]

Think of the famous Romney 47 percent line or Hillary Clinton's "deplorables" comment. Both of these statements are forms of representation where you dismiss the people who are not your supporters. When I think of my job as a politician, I can think of it as serving the entire population, or I can think of it as serving my people, my voters. So I'm looking for 51 percent, not 60 or 70 percent.

Big data makes it easy for candidates to dismiss their opponents. They now know, with greater and greater precision, how people voted and how they're likely to vote in the future, and their campaigns reflect that.

Politico: Marine Le Pen, no longer enemy of the euro

Instead of arguing that France should reissue the franc and use competitive devaluations, as she had in the past, Le Pen laid out more conventional proposals such as changing tax rules for overtime work. She did refer — briefly — to a referendum on EU membership in her closing statement, but not to ditching the euro. [...]

It underscores how France’s foremost Euroskeptic party is adapting its language and positions in a bid to win power in the presidential election, even if that means jettisoning a core policy proposal. [...]

Indeed, according to a CSA poll published to coincide with the Treaty of Rome’s 60th anniversary, 66 percent of the French want to remain in the European Union. That’s an increase of six percentage points compared to the end of June 2016, shortly after Britain voted to leave the EU. [...]

In France, opposition to the EU is now largely confined to National Front supporters, 78 percent of whom want to leave the bloc. “Anti-EU sentiment remains powerful among people with low educational qualifications, blue-collar workers and those who feel most fragile from an economic and social standpoint, who are less well-equipped to deal with the challenges of globalization,” said Gaillot.

Such die-hard Euroskeptics make up Le Pen’s electoral base, the same people she refers to as “the forgotten ones.”

Quartz: Marine Le Pen wants France to cut ties with most of the world—except Africa

But in Chad, Le Pen will be going against her own inward-looking and populist sloganeering. Her visit comes a few weeks after a major foreign policy speech in which she said she wanted to forge a new relationship with Africa based on “frankness, respect, and mutual cooperation.” In her self-described new approach, Le Pen called for a policy of “non-interference, which doesn’t mean indifference,” providing development aid to Africa, and maintaining French military presence in countries like Cameroon and Chad.

During a presidential debate on Monday (Mar. 20) ahead of her trip, Le Pen stressed the importance of French economic and political security. She categorically pointed out that she wants “to put an end to immigration” and blamed the centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron, who is leading in the polls, for his pro-European stances. [...]

Economically, France’s share of the African market has been weakened by the continent’s trade with China, India, and Brazil. But that hasn’t stopped current president Françoise Hollande from championing an activist policy, urging French business leaders to double trade with Africa to boost employment opportunities. The 150 companies which are part of the French Council for Investment in Africa have a turnover of €60 billion, about 80% of French economic activity in Africa.

Mashable: This emerging country is getting unhappier by the year

According to last year's report, India witnessed the steepest declines in happiness levels between 2005-07 and 2013-15. And this, despite its gross domestic product (GDP) growing faster than most developed countries of the world. (The World Happiness Report bases its data on six parameters: GDP per capita, life expectancy, social support, trust, freedom to make life decisions, and generosity.) [...]

One in five international cases of honor killing every year comes from India, according to the United Nations. In fact, India reported an inglorious 800 percent rise in honor killings last year.

The rate of malnutrition cases among children in India is almost five times more than in China and twice than in Sub-Saharan Africa, according to World Bank. Malnutrition is often dubbed as India's 'silent emergency'.

Over 35 million children in India are deprived of education and have to work as laborers, according to the 2011 Census. And there's more.

Associated Press: Pope Begs Forgiveness for Church Role in Rwanda Genocide

In an extraordinary statement after Francis' meeting with Rwandan President Paul Kagame, the Vatican acknowledged that the church itself bore blame, as well as some Catholic priests and nuns who "succumbed to hatred and violence, betraying their own evangelical mission" by participating in the genocide.

During the 100-day genocide, more than 800,000 ethnic Tutsis and moderate Hutus were killed by Hutu extremists. Many of the victims died at the hands of priests, clergymen and nuns, according to some accounts by survivors, and the Rwandan government says many died in the churches where they had sought refuge. [...]

In 1996, St. John Paul II refused to take blame on the church's part for what transpired in Rwanda, saying in a letter to Rwandan bishops that: "The church in itself cannot be held responsible for the misdeeds of its members who have acted against evangelical law." Four years later, however, he did make a general apology for a host of Catholic sins and crimes over its 2,000-year history.