19 May 2018

The Atlantic: In Europe, Standing Up to America Is Now Patriotic

“Even mass media are talking about extraterritorial measures, sovereignty, and standing up to the U.S.,” Delhpine O, a French lawmaker with President Macron’s En Marche party, said at a panel discussion Wednesday at the Atlantic Council in Washington. She added: “And all of a sudden this becomes something of national pride, which I’ve not seen … for a number of years. We have to be careful with this because it will probably become a matter of public opinion … of sovereignty, or pride, of standing up to protect our own interests.”

Those two countries are also party to the JCPOA, and have signaled their intention to remain in it. But working with them presents its own challenges: Europe, like the U.S., views China as an unfair trade partner; and Russian actions in Ukraine and Syria, where it is involved on the side of President Bashar al-Assad, make Moscow an unlikely ally. Yet German Chancellor Angela Merkel has visited Russia twice in the past month—visits that prompted Russian media to ask  whether a thaw in relations was imminent. [...]

The most potentially significant response from Europe came Thursday when European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said the EC would work to enact a never-used statute that blocks European companies from complying with U.S. sanctions. That statute—the so-called blocking regulation—would make it illegal for European companies to comply with U.S. sanctions laws that have extraterritorial reach. But European officials have acknowledged that the blocking regulations have limited impact, and the U.S. reportedly is considering ways to ensure European compliance.   

The Guardian: Scotland had to reject the EU withdrawal bill. It was a power grab

The constitutional battle, which may well end up in the supreme court in July, centres around the C-word. Since its inception the Holyrood parliament needs to pass a legislative consent motion any time Westminster wants to introduce legislation in areas that are devolved. Under the withdrawal bill Westminster is only offering to consult, rather than seek consent. And, it adds in a less than winning rider, we will go ahead if you agree, and we will go ahead if you don’t. [...]

But this is not merely a debate about the dry legal niceties. Under governments of various political hues, the Scottish government has forged a path distinct from that of its Commons cousins. It has just passed social security legislation that veers sharply from the punitive model of the Department for Work and Pensions. Previously it spent a small fortune mitigating the effects of the “bedroom tax”. It pioneered legislation on free personal care for the elderly, a smoking ban in public places, and minimum pricing for alcohol. It has comprehensively more ambitious politics on renewable energy. Its NHS has not been atomised or privatised and its education system has not embraced the academy or free school model. You can legitimately debate the quality of Scottish services, but not that they are philosophically distant from the worlds of Michael Gove, Iain Duncan Smith and Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Scotland voted by almost two to one to remain in the EU. Its legislators have not forgotten that they were told the only way to protect EU membership was to vote no in the 2014 independence referendum. They are acutely conscious of the potential damage of Brexit to core Scottish interests such as agriculture, fishing, financial services and biotechnology as well as exports of whisky and other branded products. The Tories like to pretend Tuesday’s vote was all about another bid for independence. But it wasn’t a bid to grab more power for Scotland. It was a bid to prevent Westminster stripping Holyrood of its existing powers.

The Guardian: Trump is wrong over Iran, but Europe can’t afford to divorce the US

This US move amounts to an open assault on multilateralism – something that, as history has taught us, Europeans have an existential interest in protecting and upholding. Trump’s decision can only be an own goal. US credibility will be severely affected. When a German chancellor declares – as Angela Merkel has just done, for the second time in a year – that Europe can no longer rely on the United States, you know something is amiss. Many others will now ask: how can we ever again trust a country that can withdraw overnight from solemn international agreements?

This could end badly. When Trump realises his strategy is bound to fail, he may want to resort to military force. His decision on Iran comes after a year and a half of insults, disparaging comments, and decisions that run counter to European and western interests. He cares little about Nato, and believes the US isn’t getting a fair return on its investment in European security. He has withdrawn from the Paris climate agreement, and has imposed tariffs on steel and aluminium. [...]

We need to be firm with Washington. The nuclear deal, or what remains of it, needs to be supported. If it collapses entirely, that should not be because of us. Trump has taken an extraordinary gamble, and we in Europe would be the first, outside the Middle East, to suffer the consequences if yet more chaos and war erupts. Our least bad option is to show we’re ready to do what we can to preserve the 2015 deal. We need to mitigate the impact of US sanctions on European business.

Social Europe: Saudi Arabia Opens A Movie Theatre, But Is It Ready To Open More?

To answer that question, we must remember the prince’s reform programme is focused on economic modernization. By tearing down barriers to access and streamlining the business environment, Vision 2030 is designed first and foremost to attract new investors. Diversification towards a service- and knowledge-based national economy is not only designed for Saudi growth – which stagnated in 2017 – but also upstream preparation for a post-oil era. Despite having some of the most substantial fossil fuel reserves in the world, Riyadh has accepted oil rents cannot constitute a sustainable basis for the economy. [...]

Movie theatres and expanded rights for women – the right to drive, act on stage, join the army, become a lawyer, start a company, etc. – are important, as are the partial disenfranchisement of the religious police (the Committee for the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice, also generally known as the Mutawa) and the pursuit of new cultural policies. However, all of these steps remain limited for the time being. Still missing from the equation is concrete evidence of a deeper shift in Saudi mindsets. [...]

While Saudi Arabia is far from conforming to Western norms of personal liberties, the development of economic ties to Riyadh, accompanied by clear political dialogue, constitutes a means of influencing the Kingdom’s evolution. To this end, Vision 2030 can be considered a mutually beneficial opportunity for gradual democratisation, even if organised and directed from above. For now, we have no choice but to take the gamble, all while remaining vigilant with regards to the rapid developments sure to come from both inside and outside the country.

Quartz: White House chaos is the reason North Korea talks are faltering, not a fickle dictator

North Korea is reconsidering holding a summit with Donald Trump, a senior diplomat said May 14. Past deals with the West—in 1985, 1995, and 2005—have also fallen apart.  [...]

Soon after secretary of state Mike Pompeo returned from Pyongyang last week, it seemed clear that Kim had “made a commitment, in his mind, to get rid of part of his program in order to get sanctions relief and economic aid,” says Ken Gause, director of the International Affairs Group at CNA, a Virginia research group, who has written three books on North Korean leadership. Indeed, on May 11, Pompeo said that conversations between him and Kim were “warm.” South Korea’s foreign minister said it had been “very clear that the sanctions [would] remain in place until and unless we see visible, meaningful action taken by North Korea on the denuclearization track.” [...]

But the US’s public demands quickly morphed. Two days after his post-Pyongyang presser, Pompeo said in an interview with CBS the the US expected “complete and total denuclearization of North Korea, and it is the President’s intention to achieve that.” He added that the US would lift sanctions and allow private US investors into the country “if we get denuclearization.” The same day, he told Fox News: “If we get what it is the President has demanded–the complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization of North Korea,” rewards could include electricity and infrastructure investment “in spades.”