Politico: Speak pray love

A senior Italian official in Florence briefed on London’s plans said: “We were told that May chose Florence because it is the historical heart of Europe and which existed without the need for the European Union. It used to be a European capital centuries before the EU was created, it’s a sort of Europe without the EU.” [...]

The choice of a continental location means this is a speech directed primarily at the EU27 and Brussels — rather than a domestic audience. And it is what the prime minister has to say — not where she is saying it — which is really important. [...]

Could she break the deadlock with a “big, generous offer” to pay, in full, Britain’s commitments to the seven-year EU budget?

Such an offer could only be made with strings attached, but it could nevertheless clear a significant blockage from the road to Brexit.May could demand the status quo on trade until the end of the budget period in late 2020 in return for the status quo on money.

Without a clear offer, the speech will only annoy the EU27 more than they already are (no mean feat).

read the article

The New York Times: Follow Kenya’s Lead on Plastic Bags

Last month, Kenya took strong action to tackle the scourge. Manufacturers and importers of plastic bags now face fines of $19,000 to $38,000 or four-year-jail terms. Retailers can no longer sell plastic garbage bags. Shoppers risk having plastic bags confiscated.

The ban imposes more difficulties on many Kenyans than just the inconvenience of getting reusable bags. Poor residents of Nairobi rely on plastic bags as “flying toilets” in the absence of a functioning sewage system and of public toilets that don’t charge a fee. The solution is to provide more toilets and latrines. [...]

More than 40 countries, including China, France and Rwanda, have taxed, limited or banned plastic bags. By 2019, those bags can no longer be handed out free in Europe.

These measures are effective. After England imposed a 5-pence charge on plastic bags in 2015, use dropped 85 percent in the first nine months.

read the article

Business Insider: Here's what China might do if the US and North Korea went to war

Bilahari: First of all, we should understand China’s bottom line position on North Korea. The Chinese and the North Koreans have never loved each other, and mutual distrust has grown under Kim Jong-un, whose aggressive pursuit of an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of delivering a nuclear weapon to the continental US has diminished Chinese security – for example, through the deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Air Defence (THAAD) system in South Korea. [...]

There are, after all, only five Leninist states left in the world – China, North Korea, Vietnam, Cuba and Laos. If the CCP is seen to be complicit in the destruction of a fellow Leninist state, that could – and indeed probably will – give the Chinese people very bad ideas about their own system. [...]

Question: What will China do if North Korea attacks the U.S.?

Nothing. Or nothing much. Some Chinese media – notably the Global Times – said, after Kim Jong-un had threatened to bracket Guam with missiles, that if North Korea started a war with the US, it was on its own. The Chinese know that a war with the US would jeopardise the most core of their core interests – namely, the preservation of CCP rule – because such a war cannot have a favourable outcome for China. [...]

The Trump administration’s approach to North Korea and its actions in other theatres, such as bombing Syria while President Trump dined with Xi Jinping, have done much to restore the credibility of American power. Indeed, President Trump has a valid point when he says that unpredictability is an asset. The US under Obama was far too predictable. [...]

China cannot replace the US as the leader of the current world order for the simple reason that in order to lead an open order, you must yourself be open. Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road initiative is a bold and ambitious vision. But it is not a substitute for the current order because it plainly rests on the foundation of the current order. Can the initiative succeed if the world turns protectionist? Can it succeed if China gets into a trade war with the US?

read the article

Politico: Juncker’s uni-vision for Europe

As has become his tradition, Juncker delivered the speech in English, French and German, and this year’s address offered a detailed policy blueprint for his final two years in office, in which he clearly hopes to shape his legacy. He also put forward his own answer to the debate on the future of Europe that the Commission kicked off in a white paper earlier this year.

The white paper offered up five scenarios, including allowing for a so-called “multi-speed” Europe in which some countries that wanted deeper cooperation could pursue it. But Juncker described his own, personal “sixth scenario,” which in many ways was far more ambitious, with a completed single currency zone, and a single-speed Europe with its foot firmly on the accelerator.

In one of many policy proposals, Juncker called for empowering the recently-created European public prosecutor with authority to enforce common anti-terrorism laws. While it is far from clear how, or even if, such a proposal could be carried out, it showed Juncker is intent on seizing a role for the EU in addressing one of the top priorities of citizens across Europe. [...]

In addition to urging the inclusion of Bulgaria and Romania in Schengen, he addressed the problem of dual food standards — a major concern in the east. The offer of assistance for countries joining the currency zone and the opposition to a multi-speed approach, which many in the east fear will leave them behind, also served as an olive branch. [...]

In many ways, Juncker’s financial and economic proposals clashed sharply with the vision put forward by French President Emmanuel Macron. And in carefully calibrating his remarks about an EU finance minister, and rejecting Macron’s idea of a eurozone parliament, Juncker sided solidly with the more cautious approach of German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

read the article

Politico: Bulgarian far right set to shock Brussels

With Sofia taking over the EU’s rotating Council presidency in January, politicians and officials in Brussels are sounding the alarm over the United Patriots (UP) — a group of three far-right parties in Bulgaria’s coalition government. [...]

UP leaders have used racist rhetoric toward Bulgaria’s Roma minority, advocated violence to prevent migrants from entering Europe and publicly expressed doubt that man-made climate change is a problem. [...]

One UP leader, Deputy Prime Minister Valeri Simeonov, once publicly described the Roma as “ferocious apes.” A second leader, Deputy Prime Minister Krasimir Karakachanov, who, as defense minister, will participate in the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council, recently said the EU and NATO should stop migrants entering Europe “by force of arms if necessary.” [...]

Asked by POLITICO about the UP’s rhetoric, Commissioner for Justice Věra Jourová, who is in charge of promoting the integration of Roma communities across Europe, said: “It is absolutely unacceptable … I am nervous about this situation.” She said she is already monitoring the new government’s policy toward the Roma for signs of backsliding and would be in “intensive” discussions with Sofia in the coming months. [...]

In some cases, UP leaders have sought to turn their nationalist rhetoric into action. Earlier this year, Simeonov and Karakachanov, the defense minister who is also leader of the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization (IMRO), joined protesters who tried to barricade the Bulgarian-Turkish border to stop ethnic Turks from voting in the election.

read the article