UnHerd: Why is Sinn Féin rising?

Ever since Ireland gained independence in 1922, every Irish Government has been led by either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael (or one of its antecedents). The two parties emerged from a split over the Anglo-Irish Treaty that paved the way to independence. The side that became Fine Gael accepted the Treaty, and the side that became Fianna Fáil, led by Éamon de Valera, rejected it. The pro-Treaty side, under Michael Collins, won the subsequent civil war but Fianna Fáil soon emerged as the strongest and most popular party in the new Irish state. [...]

But as time has gone on, and the Civil War recedes ever more into the distance, the historical differences between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael seem less and less important and increasingly they are seen as two sides of the same coin. [...]

Irish politics is also unusual in that immigration has barely raised its head as an issue, despite the fact that Ireland actually has a higher proportion of non-nationals living here than almost any other EU country, including Britain. Both the media and the mainstream parties absolutely refuse to permit a debate on the matter, but most of the immigrants to date are from other EU countries and fit in well for the most part. [...]

But every scenario is bound to strengthen Sinn Féin further. A second confidence-and-supply deal makes Sinn Féin the de facto opposition party, and if there is an outright coalition between the two parties, Sinn Féin becomes the official opposition. One way or another, the party of Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness will benefit and the next time an election is called it will be running far more candidates and could potentially become the biggest party in the state for the first time since independence almost a century ago. It’s also possible that, if either main parties dumps their leader after the election, they choose a successor willing to cross that line and enter a coalition government with Sinn Fein.

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Jacobin Magazine: The End of the Old Brigade

For his supporters, Adams is the man who guided Sinn Féin to unprecedented political success; for disillusioned one-time allies, he is a slippery opportunist who abandoned fundamental principles in the name of expediency. His most vociferous critics in the Irish media will be glad to see the back of Adams, but their relief at his departure will be mixed with awareness that he did more than anyone to bring the IRA to a permanent ceasefire. He leaves Sinn Féin at a moment of uncertainty on both sides of the Irish border, with fundamental questions to answer about its political strategy in the years ahead. [...]

After his release in 1976, Adams was ready to challenge the old guard in the republican movement. His faction promised that there would be no more ceasefires without a clear British commitment to leave Ireland for good, earning themselves a reputation as hard-line militarists. The vision of a federal Ireland with an Ulster parliament espoused by Sinn Féin president Ruairí Ó Brádaigh was dismissed as a sop to unionism. Ó Brádaigh and his allies were ruthlessly marginalized by the younger northern Provos who rallied to Adams. In a dramatic role-reversal which reveals much about Adams’ political journey, Ó Brádaigh would later became one of his leading critics when he led Sinn Féin into the peace process of the 1990s. [...]

In the 1983 Westminster election Sinn Féin won over 40 per cent of the nationalist vote. It was a remarkable success that demonstrated the potential of an electoral strategy to Adams and his comrades in leadership. But it also proved to be the high water mark for the dual strategy of “the Armalite and the ballot box.” As time went on, the contradictions between the IRA’s guerrilla warfare and Sinn Féin’s political growth became ever more apparent. Support for the IRA campaign was confined to a minority of nationalists in republican strongholds like Derry, West Belfast and South Armagh. Beyond those circles, there was a ceiling that Sinn Féin could never break while the war continued. Controversial IRA actions, such as the bomb attack that killed eleven civilians at Enniskillen in 1987, would have a direct impact on Sinn Féin’s electoral prospects. [...]

But this should not really be surprising. For Gerry Adams and the movement he has built, social questions are ultimately a means to an end: useful insofar as they advance the prospects of Irish unification, disposable insofar as they don’t. And under his leadership, Sinn Féin has come closer to its primary objective than ever before. When Adams promised, at this year’s Ard Fheis, that his party would secure a referendum on Irish unity within five years, it wasn’t for show. Amid the fallout from Brexit, with unionism historically weak in the North and the conflict fading from the memory of the southern electorate, a referendum is increasingly plausible. What kind of Ireland it would produce is another story.

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America Magazine: Ireland’s first openly gay prime minister is no liberal hero

As he navigates the early days of his leadership, Mr. Varadkar has positioned himself as a leader of “the new European center” and “a republic of opportunity.” He has benefitted from the positive coverage his election generated in the international press, who lauded the election of an openly gay son of an Indian immigrant as a sign of how progressive our tiny little island had become. The New York Times wrote that his rise is evidence that Ireland is rapidly “leaving its conservative Roman Catholic social traditions behind.” [...]

But more significant, his election was not widely hailed as a move toward a new liberal Ireland. Though Mr. Varadkar’s views on contentious issues have softened, he is still among the more conservative members of the Irish parliament. The leadership contest that preceded his election was defined by Mr. Varadkar’s own declaration that he wanted to be a leader for “people who get up early in the morning.” He later clarified that he was describing “a country that rewards work, that rewards people who work hard, that want better lives for themselves, their families, their communities,” but the implied logic was that he had little concern for those who do not get up early or could not get up at all. [...]

But the shift Mr. Varadkar represents is not just a focus on individualism. Former Prime Minister Enda Kenny was known for being evasive and closed off and for his ability to talk around parliament’s questions without giving a clear answer. Leo Varadkar, meanwhile, positioned himself as a straight talker willing to take a contrarian view on contentious issues. And despite the fact that Mr. Varadkar did not bring sweeping changes to the cabinet, when he chaired his first meeting as Taoiseach at Áras An Uachtaráin last Wednesday, it was undoubtedly seen as the changing of the guard from one generation to the next.

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Politico: Leo Varadkar wins leadership of Ireland’s ruling party

At 38, Varadkar, who won 60 percent support in the party’s electoral college, will become the youngest person to lead the Irish government since it gained independence from Britain in 1922. The current minister for social protection is also openly gay and the son of a Hindu immigrant father who was born in India. He trained as a medical doctor. [...]

Varadkar takes over at a time when the country prepares to tackle three major issues which, if handled poorly, could backfire politically on the Irish government, which comprises of 11 Fine Gael parliamentarians, known as TDs, and three independents in cabinet, as well as the agreed support of the main opposition party, Fianna Fáil.

Formal negotiations on Brexit will commence later this month with the future for the border separating the Republic of Ireland from Northern Ireland still unclear, an issue which could have massive implications for the Irish economy.

Added to this is a major housing crisis in the greater Dublin area and the prospect of the fourth referendum in 34 years on the delicate issue of abortion. [...]

A number of back-bench members of parliament who were disgruntled at being overlooked for promotion by Kenny, opted for Varadkar instead of his closest leadership rival Simon Coveney when it became clear three weeks ago that Varadkar’s bid was building momentum.

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