Politico: Spanish right eyes deep south

While there is plenty at stake for all four main Spanish parties in an election in Andalusia on December 2, the one that stands to gain the most is Ciudadanos. It enters this contest not only hoping to unseat the Socialists (PSOE), who have governed Andalusia for nearly 40 years, but also determined to assert its dominance in Spain’s increasingly crowded political right.[...]

Since 2015, the Socialists have relied on the support of Ciudadanos to govern in Andalusia. But the recent collapse of that partnership reflects Ciudadanos’ shift to the right and its push to make inroads in the region. Originally claiming to occupy the center ground, in early 2017 the party eliminated “social democracy” from its statutes, relaunching itself as a “constitutionalist, liberal, democratic and progressive” force.[...]

That radicalization has been most visible on the issue of Catalonia. Founded as a Catalan centrist party that sought to counter that region’s swelling nationalism, Ciudadanos, which went nationwide in 2014, has hardened its unionist stance as Spain’s territorial crisis has unfolded.[...]

That is unlikely, with the Socialists almost certainly heading for victory once again, albeit requiring a new partner to help them govern. A more realistic target for Ciudadanos will be to overtake the PP, which it is happy to join forces with to form a government if the two parties gain enough seats.

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Politico: Macron and Rutte form liberal dream team

Rutte’s People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) is a core member of ALDE, which is the predominant liberal political family in Europe, and the Dutch prime minister has emerged as a centrist, liberal powerbroker on the European Council in the wake of Brexit. Macron upended the French political establishment by catapulting into the Elysée Palace as an independent in 2017. [...]

Operatives who described the plan said the parties in the coalition would campaign around a common platform, but that the partnership would formally take effect after next May’s European Parliament election. They hope they will do well enough to form the second-largest group in the Parliament — giving its leaders additional leverage in both the backroom negotiations over filling EU leadership posts and stronger numbers in the vote for Commission president, which will require a majority in the 705-seat Parliament. The center-right European People’s Party is expected to win the most seats in the next chamber. [...]

The partnership between ALDE and En Marche would overcome this by potentially forcing him out after the election. It would also be boosted by an alliance that Macron has forged with the Spanish liberal leader Albert Rivera and his party Ciudadanos. And it would present a bold, new challenge to the long-dominant, center-right European People’s Party (EPP), which currently holds the most seats in the Parliament and all three of the EU’s top jobs — the presidencies of the Commission, the Council and the Parliament. [...]

ALDE has struggled in part because its membership includes an extremely broad political spectrum, from ardent federalists like Verhofstadt, to Euroskeptic populists like Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš. ALDE’s eight Spanish MEPs alone represent four different national parties, as well as include three independents.

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Politico: A Frenchman joins the Battle of Barcelona

Speaking in slightly accented Spanish and Catalan — and some French — Valls spoke about his origins in Barcelona (his father was a Catalan painter exiled under the dictatorship of Francisco Franco) and his love for Catalan culture and language, which he said was spoken at home after the family moved to France. [...]

Valls is targeting both Catalan unionist voters — the liberal, pro-unity Ciudadanos, which offered him the chance to be the head of its local list, has thrown its weight behind his independent candidacy — and moderate, affluent nationalists tired of what he described as the “grave problems” of the city; namely, insecurity, drugs and illegal street vendors. [...]

Valls became involved in Spanish politics after his failed bid for the leadership of the French Socialist Party and at the peak of the Catalan independence push last year. His tough words against separatism — “unmaking Spain is unmaking Europe,” he said — played well with pro-unity audiences in Catalonia and the rest of Spain. [...]

Much is still unknown about Barcelona’s mayoral ballot, with not all candidates having declared. Some secessionists are calling for a common pro-independence ticket and others are resisting the pressure. Even if Valls ends up as the most popular candidate, a potential alliance of pro-independence parties or one of Colau and other leftist groups could deprive him of power.

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LSE Blog: Rajoy Loses Power In Spain: What Happens Now?

In some ways, Spain’s problems closely resemble those of Italy’s. In both countries, public disgust with a corrupt elite combined with the financial crisis to bring about a partial collapse of the mainstream centre-right and centre-left, and facilitated the rise of new anti-elite challengers. In Spain, the conservative People’s Party (Partido Popular – PP) and the centre-left Socialists (Partido Socialista Obrero Español – PSOE) have had to contend with the left-populist Podemos and the centrist Ciudadanos, which somewhat resembles Macron’s La Republique En Marche in France. The PP and PSOE declined to record lows of support in the December 2015 elections; the PP recovered slightly in June 2016’s repeat polls and formed a minority government. However, the PP’s position was very weak; Rajoy only won office with Ciudadanos support, and even then relied on the Socialists abstaining, a decision that nearly tore that party apart and briefly cost Sánchez his job as leader. [...]

Sánchez won office by exploiting a confluence of events that benefited his party. Firstly, although both of Spain’s legacy parties have been touched by accusations of corruption, the Socialists’ most notable scandal erupted in Andalusia, home of Sánchez’s chief internal rival, Susana Díaz. Meanwhile, the PP’s scandals have tended to receive more coverage in recent months. First, there was the discovery that the president of Madrid’s regional government, Cristina Cifuentes, had fraudulently obtained a master’s degree, and had been caught trying to shoplift. Then came the handing down of verdicts in the long-running Caso Gürtel. This years-old investigation looked at the illegal financing of the PP, and on 24 May, the Audiencia Nacional sentenced its ex-treasurer, Luis Bárcenas, to 33 years in prison. It also convicted Rajoy’s former health minister, Ana Mato, and found the PP itself guilty, fining the party €245,000. It was the Gürtel ruling that gave Sánchez his opening to introduce a motion of no confidence.  [...]

Ciudadanos, on the other hand, has been leading recent polls, well ahead of the PP, its rival on the centre-right. The party draws votes from both the PP and the PSOE, has strong anti-corruption credentials and is perhaps the most adamantly centralist party in Spanish politics – that is, it tends to oppose concessions to Catalan or Basque nationalism. The Catalan crisis has thus helped its support to grow. Although Ciudadanos has worked with the Socialists before, the party had been backing Rajoy since his re-election in 2016. In this case, it decided not to back Sánchez, instead claiming to want snap elections (rather disingenuously, since it had agreed to support Rajoy’s proposed budget). Most likely, Rivera did not wish to be seen voting alongside Podemos, or worse yet, Catalan nationalists.  

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Politico: 5 takeaways from the overthrow of Mariano Rajoy

Sánchez managed to assemble an unlikely coalition — labeled “Frankenstein” by rivals — with the far-left Podemos, two Catalan pro-independence groups and a Basque nationalist party, all of who had refused to endorse the Socialist for the premiership in the past. [...]

It was a bitter way to go for Rajoy, the first Spanish prime minister to be taken down by a motion of no confidence. It was also an extraordinary vindication for Sánchez, whose chances of getting the top job had been dismissed by polls, rivals and analysts. [...]

It was a particularly unglamorous end. He was sacked because of corruption in his Popular Party, although the PM himself wasn’t accused of any wrongdoing in the courts. Rajoy didn’t even attend most of the marathon parliamentary session called to oust him. On Thursday afternoon, he and his aides went to a restaurant instead. On Friday morning, he arrived late to the Congress of Deputies. [...]

Sánchez didn’t give many hints as to what his government will do, but he vowed to honor Spain’s commitments to its European partners in terms of budget stability and to lead a firmly pro-European government. [...]

With Rajoy out, the more moderate elements of the Catalan separatist movement will have an opportunity to push for a softer approach with Madrid. Direct rule over Catalonia by the central government will be ended within hours and Sánchez has defended greater powers for the region and constitutional change, although he lacks the majority in parliament to amend the constitution.

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Politico: Spanish Socialist’s survival strategy

The Madrid-born Socialist leader is offering constitutional reform that would give Catalonia increased autonomy, but not independence. “The secessionists are going to meet the wall of Spain’s rule of law if they go back to the unilateral path (to independence),” he said.

The appointment last week of hard-line independence activist Quim Torra as Catalan regional president makes it even less likely that the crisis is going to cool off in the short term. At the same time, supporters of Spanish unity have discovered a propaganda goldmine in Torra’s anti-Spanish writings and tweets. [...]

The Socialists are currently the second-biggest party in parliament after Rajoy’s conservatives, with the far-left Podemos in third place and Ciudadanos fourth. But recent polls of voter intentions put Ciudadanos either in the lead or second while the PSOE is most often ranked third after Rajoy’s party and Rivera’s. [...]

While Ciudadanos has poached voters from the PP and the PSOE, it is a more natural fit for disenchanted conservatives than leftists. Sánchez argued that the “fracture” on the right, in the context of a more fragmented political scenario where votes are split four ways rather than the traditional two-way PP-PSOE rivalry, means he is in a good position to win the next national election.

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