The Red Line: The Geopolitics of Indonesia

 With a new cold war between the USA and China looming on the horizon the balance of power in Asia is being drawn up, with Beijing and Washington vying for influence in the region. Of all the nations of importance though none will be as crucial as Indonesia. Set to be the 4th largest economy by the year 2050 Indonesia is quickly becoming a regional leader, one that could dictate the direction for ASEAN and SE Asia for decades to come. So we sat down with our expert panel to talk about the future of this soon to be giant. On the panel this week Kyle Springer (US Asia Centre) Natalie Sambhi (Verve Research) Gordon Flake (US Asia Centre) For more info visit - www.theredlinepodcast.com Follow the show on @TheRedLinePod or Michael on @MikeHilliardAus

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Council on Foreign Relations: The Military Wins Big in Thailand

Prayuth’s victory was all but guaranteed. The military and its allies made certain of that by announcing criminal charges against opposition leaders and overseeing an unusual interpretation of electoral laws that helped the pro-military party gain the most seats possible. Prayuth essentially remains in power, with the military firmly behind him, and his unwieldy coalition will likely now have more than the 250 seats needed in the lower house to pass legislation.

But the parliamentary vote does not indicate overwhelming popular support for the military and its main party, Palang Pracharath. To be sure, Palang Pracharath earned the most votes of any one party during the March election, but the anti-junta opposition coalition earned more votes overall. It probably would have won more than 250 seats in the lower house, if not for the Thai election commission’s dubious reading of electoral laws. [...]

Now Prayuth, who is thin-skinned in dealing with public criticism, will have to operate in a more politically open environment. Before the vote for prime minister, he declined to present a platform of any kind. And in parliament, the unified opposition—convinced that the election was stolen from them—will likely work to stymie Prayuth, defeat legislation, and try to investigate the military. With Prayuth facing challenges from parliament, it is not inconceivable that the military could stage another coup and retake total control of politics.

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