The general argument from this bloc is that impeachment serves little purpose because the GOP-controlled Senate is unlikely to seriously consider removing the president from office. Moreover, these lawmakers argue, impeachment proceedings might result in a political backlash against Democrats. (That the Senate would not vote to remove Trump is almost certainly true; I have some doubts about whether the public would necessarily turn against Democrats because of impeachment.) [...]
For one, polls suggest a majority of Democratic voters support impeachment, and many of the party’s activists are pushing the idea hard. So there would be strong political pressure for a “yes” vote in many of these members’ districts. Secondly, Pelosi, in particular, has argued she believes Trump has committed impeachable offenses — so she would have a hard time defending a “no” vote on the substance. [...]
Democrats have 235 votes in the House, so at least some members who represent the 31 districts that supported Trump in 2016 would have to back an impeachment resolution for it to pass by simple majority (218). And that could hurt their re-election prospects in 2020, perhaps jeopardizing Democrats’ majority. Pelosi is aware of the cross pressures these members would face from an impeachment vote and is trying to take that on her herself instead of leaving these members in a tough position.
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