11 July 2018

Bloomberg: May’s Brexit Gamble Might Actually Work

Theresa May's plan for Britain's post-Brexit relationship with the European Union comes at least 18 months too late. With only a few months of real negotiating time before the U.K. leaves, it has triggered the worst political turmoil yet faced by May, calling into question her future as prime minister. On top of all that, it's a plan that the EU is quite likely to reject. [...]

The resignations of David Davis, the minister who'd nominally been in charge of the Brexit talks, and Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, aren't a bad thing. Both favor a cleaner separation from Europe — Johnson was a leader of the Leave campaign — and neither was willing to support a hybrid of the kind May is finally advocating. Davis had already been largely cut out of the process, and Johnson, perpetually plotting his bid for the leadership, had nothing constructive to offer. It's much better for May to be rid of them. [...]

If Europe rejects it out of hand, then May's position might indeed be hopeless. Europe's leaders ought to reflect on the consequences. In the U.K., May is now seen as having staked everything on an unpopular compromise. If the EU throws this back in her face and demands, in effect, that the U.K. accept whatever terms it dictates, it might secure a short-term victory. But in the longer term this is the prospect that would most assist Johnson and the other anti-EU coup-plotters. Maybe the EU should think twice before it binds itself more closely to a seething resentful enemy, and see whether a hybrid deal might be done after all.

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