In the end, no EU leader apart from Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Bulgarian President Rumen Radev honoured Erdogan's inauguration on July 9. [...]
First, both Ankara and Brussels are keeping the pretence of membership negotiations, though each party knows that it is a dead-end street. EU foreign ministers concluded on June 26, two days after the elections, that talks have come "to a standstill". Predictably, Ankara slammed their stance. However, neither Erdogan nor his counterparts in the EU are prepared to pull the plug, figuratively speaking, and take the responsibility.
Second, business ties are booming despite the political tensions that poison diplomatic exchanges. In 2017, the EU accounted for 36.4 percent of Turkey's imports and 47.1 percent of exports. That means the union is still Ankara's top trading partner.
Third, although membership is not in the cards, Turkey has not given up on EU integration. It hopes it could upgrade the Customs Union, in place since 1996, and get a better deal in sectors such as agriculture, trade in services, and public procurement. [...]
The recent summit in Varna, Bulgaria, attended by Erdogan and the heads of the EU Council and the European Commission Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker, failed to make headway. However, at the European Council meeting on June 29, which was focused heavily on containing migration, the 28 member states agreed to go forward with the transfer of another $3.3bn for the EU Facility for Refugees in Turkey. Migration Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos attended Erdogan's swear-in ceremony - a clear signal as to where the EU's priorities lie.
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