The Atlantic: Is the U.S. Bringing Europe and Russia Closer Together?

But that was then—this is now. President Trump’s recent decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the Iran deal is formally known, has put Europe between a rock and a hard place. On one hand, it could resign itself to watching its signature diplomatic achievement crumble. On the other, it could attempt to salvage the deal, even if it means exposing its businesses to U.S. sanctions. So far, European leaders appear to have opted for the latter, committing themselves to maintaining the agreement, even if it means doing so without Washington. “As long as the Iranians respect their commitments, the EU will of course stick to the agreement of which it was an architect,” European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker said last week, adding that the bloc will “do what we can to protect our European businesses” from U.S. sanctions penalizing companies that do business with Iran. This includes introducing regulations that would prevent European companies from complying with the sanctions (but as my colleague Krishnadev Calamur points out, it’s not entirely clear how effective they will be). [...]

Trump’s decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Iran deal adds another crack in the relationship between Washington and its European allies—after those caused by the U.S.’s withdrawal last year from the Paris climate accord and Trump’s more recent threat to impose steep aluminum and steel tariffs on the European Union (waivers for which expire next week). These diplomatic fissures have prompted some to question the durability of the trans-Atlantic relationship. On Iran, at least, there’s a risk of Europe drifting further from the U.S. and closer to Russia. [...]

Despite their differences, they do have another important thing in common: A willingness to stand up to—or, depending on your perspective, stick it to—the United States. “Russia will exploit as much as possible this narrative that the United States is not respecting its international engagements,” Boulègue said. “It will be presented as a victory and this will allow Russia to have an upper hand in any future negotiations with regards to Iran, and that is directly linked to Syria because Iran is indeed a key player in any sort of peace settlement in Syria. … Russia will definitely capitalize on that.”

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