“The worst problem for Tsipras, for the government, but also for Greece is the evolving ‘rogueness’ of Turkey,” said Aristides Hatzis, a professor of law and economics at the University of Athens. “Diminishing American influence on the region is a destabilizing factor and the stakes are very high,” Hatzis said, adding that Greece is not a primary concern for Turkey, but a part of an overall plan by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to establish hegemony in the region. [...]
While “the possibility of deliberate escalation is relatively low,” there is increased concern of an accidental trigger event between the two countries, said Thanos Dokos, director-general of the Athens-based Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy. Greek and Turkish military ships and aircraft have always operated in close proximity, but the Turkish armed forces have been stripped of experienced officers following the 2016 coup attempt and shrinking U.S., EU and NATO influence over Ankara make outside mediation less certain in the event of an incident, he said. [...]
Any wavering of internal support could put Tsipras’s thin parliamentary majority at risk ahead of national elections scheduled for next year, a grave concern at a moment when the main opposition party, New Democracy, is leading in the polls.
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