Some of its techniques may have significant weaknesses. The Lancet report makes an eye-popping assertion about the global economy, arguing that climate change has already significantly harmed labor capacity around the world. Between 2015 and 2016—which are the second- and first-hottest years ever recorded—it argues that “outdoor-labor capacity” fell by 2 percent. Since the year 2000, outdoor-labor capacity has fallen by 5.3 percent overall, it claims. [...]
Climate change will almost certainly harm global labor output, but a lack of empirical observations around the world makes the kind of measurement The Lancet is attempting difficult. The controversy points to one of the most difficult aspects of finding climate change’s effects on human life: While scientists can measure weather worldwide, measuring the fingerprint of climate change on all human activity is far more complicated.
The Lancet report makes other broad claims about global public health that were more widely accepted. It finds that many more older people experience heat waves now than did two or three decades ago. The report says that roughly 175 million more people older than 65 worldwide were exposed to excess heat in 2015 as compared to several decades ago. On average, 125 million more older adults are exposed to heat than were in previous decades. [...]
The European heat wave of 2003, one of the worst natural disasters ever experienced, is estimated to have ultimately killed more than 70,000 people.
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