CityLab: 49 Countries Have Already Reached Peak Emissions

Let's start with the good news, since it’s so rare in climate coverage today. Rich and his co-author, Kelly Levin, reviewed historical emissions and found that the number of countries whose greenhouse gas emissions have already peaked is on the rise. In 1990, 19 countries had already peaked; by 2000, that number had risen to 33, and by 2010 it was 49—including France (which peaked back in 1991), the Netherlands (1996), Australia (2006), and the United States (2007). “Nearly all of the developed countries have already peaked. That's an encouraging trend,” Rich says. “People may not know that, based on the current rhetoric, but actually [U.S. emissions] did peak 10 years ago. We’ve made a lot of progress, and our economy has grown.” [...]

Still, the total number of countries that have peaked matters less than their share of global emissions. To illustrate: Between 1990 and 2000, the number of countries that peaked grew by 14, but their share of global emissions actually decreased—from 21 percent to 18 percent—over the same period. Sharper emissions cuts by some countries, especially powerhouse emitters, could offset slower peaks by others. By 2010, the 48 countries that had peaked were responsible for 36 percent of global emissions. The countries that have peaked could account for 40 percent of emissions by 2020, and 60 percent by 2030. [...]

Now for the bad news: All this progress is still probably not enough to limit warming to less than two degrees over pre-industrial levels. “The global picture is still not good,” Rich says. “Global emissions need to peak in 2020 for what's called the least-cost likely chance of meeting the two-degree global temperature target, and we're not on track for that.” Even if every nation meets all the commitments in its Paris Agreement pledges, global emissions are still expected to increase between 2020 and 2030. That doesn't necessarily mean that the goals of the Paris Agreement are totally out of reach, but it will be a lot harder—not to mention more expensive—to get there. Global emissions can peak later, but it means countries will have to decarbonize faster, and may have to rely on as-yet unproven carbon-capture technologies to limit global warming to safe levels.

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