There is, in fact, no wave of separatism across Europe. In Belgium, the Flemish nationalist party is part of the national government but has not even insisted on a constitutional reform. It talks about confederalism; independence is, at most, a long-term and rather vague aspiration. [...]
Within the European Union, there are precisely two independence-seeking movements of any significance, in Catalonia and in Scotland. In both cases, support for independence is around 40-45 percent. Both are governed by nationalist parties, which have sought to test support in independence referendums. [...]
The Scottish referendum was won by the anti-independence forces, who gained 55 percent of the vote. While the nationalists were defeated, however, they had demonstrated that they are a considerable force in Scottish society. Neither side had scored a knock-out victory. So, after the referendum, the two sides engaged in a negotiation to produce a compromise of further autonomy for Scotland. [...]
Catalonia has gone into a confrontation that could have been avoided some years ago with a bit of statesmanship. With some recognition of Catalonia's national status, stronger guarantees for its competences and language and a deal on taxation and spending, the great majority of Catalans would have been content to remain in Spain and Spain itself would have been strengthened. Instead, there has been a series of miscalculations on both sides and a failure to think through the consequences of their actions. [...]
The same proportion thought that the actions of the Spanish government had encouraged pro-independence forces. A clear majority favoured proceeding gradually towards more autonomy, as the current Basque government is doing. A poll taken after the referendum showed 44 percent in favour of independence (where it has been for the last few years) but, when Catalans are offered the alternative of more autonomy, support for independence falls to 29 percent.
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