And, on November 9, the autonomous government has vowed to organise a referendum on Catalan residents' “Right to decide” whether they want to become a State and, if they do, whether they would choose independence or remain in the fold of the Spanish monarchy. A vote which is bitterly opposed – as unconstitutional – by the right wing PP's (Popular Party) government in Madrid as much as by PSOE (Socialist) opposition in the name of Spanish unity. For the moment, according to recent opinion polls, over two thirds of voters would vote “yes” at the first question and a small majority would opt for independence. [...]
In a democratic country there is nothing which could not be solved through negotiations. Provided there is a common will to negotiate, i.e., to give and take. The Catalan government, led by Artur Mas, head of Convergencia I Unio (CiU), the moderate nationalist party which spearheaded the fight for autonomy after Franco's death and who has long kept alive the hope of negotiating a better status with Madrid, is now advocating the “Right to decide”. He has announced for November 9 a referendum considered as illegal by the PP and PSOE, both of whom have vowed to oppose it by all legal means. Mas is also keeping up his sleeve the option of holding “plebiscitary” elections to the Barcelona Parliament, which would bring in a wider nationalist majority.
While Madrid politicians, and media are staunchly opposed to a referendum which, for them, would mean secession – some having gone so far as to compare Catalan nationalists to Nazi national-socialists, portraying Mas with a Hitler-like moustache and advocating sending the army in to restore rule of law in Barcelona – the two main Spanish parties, PP and PSOE, have all but vanished from the Catalan political scene. At the same time, moderate nationalists, who have failed to bring negotiations forward, are now threatened by the rise of the old radical anti-monarchy nationalists of Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), which has overtaken CiU in latest polls. [...]
By targeting the Mas government, widely portrayed as extremist and irresponsible, and by refusing to negotiate on key constitutional, economic, social, cultural issues, Mr. Rajoy has – willingly or not – been playing into the hands of radicals like the ERC or social organisations like Omnium Català and ANC (Catalan National Assembly), who are behind the latest massive demonstrations. New local elections would probably bring to power a coalition led by ERC. Specially as a significant number of neo-Catalans – immigrants from the rest of Spain and abroad – have recently joined the traditional independence camp. While, at the same time, neither the PP nor the PSOE want to be seen by their traditional Spanish voters as giving away to “separatists”. Rajoy knows that his party's radical wing, influenced by his predecessor Jose Maria Aznar, could threaten his leadership. While PSOE leaders are well aware that no Socialist government could be returned to the Cortes without the Catalan votes.
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