For Germans watching on television, the three nights of anarchy served as a dramatic reminder of the fragility of their country’s political and social stability. The political impact of the Hamburg riots has yet to fully unfold. But with national elections scheduled for September, it is already plentifully clear that the fallout will be severe. [...]
The pre-election debate has so far revolved mostly around taxation, social benefits, public investment and same-sex marriage. But after the events in Hamburg, issues of domestic security have snapped back into focus. Very likely, they will be the ones that decide the election’s winners.
Perhaps ironically, given that it was Chancellor Angela Merkel who brought the summit to Hamburg, this dynamic will favor German conservatives. Citizens consistently rate Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), as most competent on questions of domestic security. [...]
Casting further doubt on the already slim prospects of a left-of-center coalition unseating Merkel, the SPD’s preferred coalition partners — the Greens and the Left party — will also face backlash from the violence. In their initial responses, both parties appeared reluctant to condemn violent protesters, while putting responsibility for the escalation squarely on the police. This is likely to alienate the many moderates, pragmatists and realists among their potential supporters, and to accelerate the political marginalization of both parties.
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