The root causes of the "Arab Spring" – exploding demography, poverty, oppression – are only growing worse, exacerbated by weak oil prices, and the Mideast will continue erupting for decades. The two other primary driving forces in the region are also likely to intensify; the millennial confrontation between the Sunna and Shia, now embodied in Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the intra-Sunni paroxysm, which gave rise to ISIS. How we in Israel successfully navigate these turbulent times, if the U.S. is unable to lead, is unclear. [...]
Imagine, for a moment, that the U.S. had not signed the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. Imagine Israel now faced the need, as we do, to deal with its growing presence in Syria, but that Iran had since gone nuclear. Netanyahu excoriated Obama, did everything but challenge him to a gunfight at the O.K. Corral, but notice how Iran’s nuclear program has virtually disappeared from Israel’s agenda, and the deal has gone from Netanyahu’s grave danger list, to what his army Chief of Staff calls a strategic turning point? [...]
A weakened U.S. might be incapable of providing Israel with massive aid. This American aid constitutes some 20% of Israel’s total defense budget, 40% of the IDF budget, and almost the entire procurement budget. We could do without it only at the price of a change in our national priorities, which it is unclear whether we, as a society, are willing to do. [...]
Align our policies with Washington’s to the extent possible, and do what we can to further deepen the alliance. Keep disagreements behind the scenes, because that’s what allies do, except on matters of supreme importance, but even then, modulate them and make absolutely sure of our case. The nuclear deal, a positive, if flawed agreement, clearly did not meet that bar and Netanyahu’s public opposition to the Syrian cease-fire deal reflects a similar attempt to achieve the optimum, at the expense of the feasible. Adopt more forthcoming positions on the West Bank and settlements issues, give Trump a win, he could use one. Concurrently, strengthen our relations with a variety of countries, our sole reliance on the U.S. is good for neither side, but remember that we remain unalterably in its camp.
No comments:
Post a Comment