It cannot be emphasized enough that Orbán’s politics are powercentric. His decisions are based on whether a policy will strengthen or weaken his position. He only understands force. With regard to the question of the CEU, there are four different groups who are challenging his authority: Hungarian protesters, EU politicians, American diplomats and the academic elite. But it is clear that these ʿattacks’ do not carry the same weight when it comes to whether or not the prime minister will reverse the decision. [...]
The impact of these demonstrations is questionable. Orbán doesn’t waver in the face of a crowd of thousands unless one of his loyal research institutes says that potential voters may also take to the streets (see the demonstrations against a proposed internet tax in 2015). In any case, Fidesz doesn’t rely on Budapest to win elections. The demonstrations held in other cities, moreover, attracted only a couple hundred protesters, so they have not caused much alarm either. [...]
It seems that the CEU scandal, the law on NGOs and the national consultation campaign slandering Brussels has been too much for the European People’s Party (EPP) too. Fidesz has recently received a few unexpected blows from them as well. However, overestimating the power of the EU front would be a mistake. Firstly, the EU machinery reacts very slowly, and secondly, if they were to sanction Hungary too strictly, they run the risk of pushing Orbán into the arms of his new best friend, Putin. Such a blatant break with the EU would likely mean the end of Orbán though, so perhaps the Union has more room to maneuver here than they think. If Brussels were to tighten the leash Fidesz would lose face in Hungary, and lose the favour with Putin which Orbán has recently been courting more openly. Let’s leave that problem to Fidesz though.
The attack against the CEU will likely fail, however, because Orbán had expected the Trump administration, which also considers George Soros a political opponent, to turn a blind eye to this assault upon an American university. However this was a big mistake. Even in Trump’s New World, American interests and the protection of democracy are still more important than political skirmishes. Trump’s administration backed the CEU completely, and Orbán hasn’t yet lost all common sense. He won’t be willing to actually pick a fight with the USA just yet.
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