But Brexit is the recurring theme. Scots voted 62% in favour of
remaining in the European Union. Rebecca, a 24-year-old administrator,
voted a “definite No” to independence last time, in part because of
fears about being excluded from the EU. She thinks she would vote Yes
this time “because I would not be living in the EU anyway” and an
independent Scotland offers the prospect of staying in the EU. [...]
Pringle echoed Salmond’s analysis, saying: “At the start of the last
referendum, independence support was in the low 30s. This time around –
before any campaigning in favour and having soaked up a lot of attacks
against – Yes starts at perhaps 50%, according to the latest poll. That
must be a very attractive prospect for Nicola Sturgeon, believing that a
campaign can push that support further.”
Sturgeon, who polls suggest is much more popular than Salmond – which
could be another plus in a referendum campaign – could begin a move
towards a referendum when she addresses the SNP spring conference in
Aberdeen next weekend on 17 March. The timing of any announcement is
partly dependent on events elsewhere, mainly at Westminster, such as
when May triggers article 50. [...]
Not wanting to fight another referendum when the same issues would rise
again, the SNP set up a commission, headed by one of its former Holyrood
MSPs, Andrew Wilson, to prepare an alternate economic case. Wilson, an
economist, has stripped North Sea oil out of his projections. The
argument now is that Scotland, like other small countries which have no
oil, can still prosper.
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