16 December 2016

The Conversation: Simple thinking in a complex world is a recipe for disaster

We humans are like the ants. For all our sophistication, we react to the world in simple ways. Our world is complex, but our ability to cope with it is limited. We seek simple solutions that hide or ignore the complexity.

The result is that our actions often have unintended side-effects. These produce unwelcome trends, accidents and disasters. [...]

The limits of short-term memory further increase the need to simplify. The psychologist George Miller found that short-term memory can process only a few chunks of information at a time (the so-called “seven-plus-or-minus two” rule).

Given a string of random letters, you might recall just seven at a time, but if the letters form identifiable chunks, such as words or phrases, then you can remember longer strings of text.

Our brains cope with complexity by identifying important features and filtering out unnecessary detail. On seeing that the space you enter has four walls, a floor and a ceiling, you know you have entered a room and can usually ignore the details. This is an example of what the French psychologist Jean Piaget termed a “schema”, a mental recipe we learn for responding to common situations. [...]

Our inability to fathom complexity leads to a belief that any worthwhile solution to a situation must be simple. This attitude perhaps explains the widespread mistrust of science today: it has become too complex and technical for the public to understand. So people often ignore or reject its messages, especially when its findings are unpalatable.

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