How did Donald Trump, the worst major-party nominee in memory, get elected president of the United States? What were his voters thinking? A lot of theories and accusations are flying around, but many don’t square with the best available evidence: surveys of voters as they left their polling places. Unlike pre-election polls, which missed many voters, exit polls by definition are a survey of the electorate. So, with an understanding that exit polls can have biases or errors of their own, let’s take a hard look at the data. [...]
3. Hunger for change trumped other considerations. The exit poll asked voters, “Which one of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for president?” The options were “has the right experience,” “has good judgment,” “cares about people like me,” and “can bring needed change.” Fifty-six percent of voters picked one of the first three categories, and Clinton won these voters handily. But 39 percent of voters picked the fourth quality—“can bring needed change”—and Trump got 83 percent of those votes. The “change” factor overrode everything else. [...]
9. Terrorism was a crucial factor. The exit poll asked, “Which one of these four issues is the most important facing the country?” Sixty-five percent of voters picked the economy or foreign policy, and these voters went for Clinton. Thirteen percent picked immigration, and those voters went for Trump. The backbreaker was the fourth issue, terrorism. Eighteen percent of voters picked that issue, and they broke for Trump, 57 percent to 39 percent. That gap, fatally, cost Clinton slightly more than 3 percentage points of the total electorate.
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